Happy Friday. With a couple big games on Saturday, tomorrow morning I'll run through some fantasy thoughts on both. For today, I thought it'd be cool for us to bounce around thoughts on next year's first-round fantasy draft picks. There are obviously no right answers. Looking forward to reading who you think *should* be top 12 in ADP.
I'll kick things off. This assumes one-QB PPR leagues. No unusual scoring. And I gotta say, a paragraph ago this exercise seemed much easier. So I'll start with guys I'm a bit uneasy about. Will CMC dominate touches, or will he be paired "too much" with Elijah Mitchell, capping his ceiling while the Niners keep him fresh for the postseason? Can a 28-year-old Austin Ekeler still dominate? Are any QBs sure-fire first-rounders, or is it safer to wait?
And then there are the wild cards. Where will Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, and other impending free agents play? So many variables--like Pollard splitting touches with Dameon Pierce in Houston vs. operating as the bell cow in Miami (with Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson set to become free agents).
This is why there are no right answers. We're simply making educated guesses based on the possibilities.
(1) Austin Ekeler -- He's the #1 fantasy RB this year, though that's not why I'd pick him first next year. Pretty durable. Great offense. Elite usage in the passing game. Hard to go wrong as long as he stays on the field
(2) Travis Etienne -- Can't make this too generic. Etienne has Year 2 pop written all over him. (And yeah, I'm calling this year "Year 1," since last year he didn't play a snap.) Ascending QB/offense and the unquestioned bell cow. If not for splitting touches with James Robinson early this season, he'd be on pace for 300 touches.
(3) Christian McCaffrey -- Not at all safe, but unquestionably dominant when healthy. Presumably, the Niners' offense will be very good for at least one more year, although we don't know who will be starting at QB. Can CMC be elite if Trey Lance is running the show? Certainly some risks. But the upside makes him worth it.
(4) Justin Jefferson -- Miami's QB situation concerns me, so Tyreek Hill is out. Davante Adams surely has peaked at 30 years old. And Ja'Marr Chase is probably a better pick for the early second round. The only WR I want in round 1 is Jefferson. Young, ascending, and with minimal WR competition (a fading Adam Thielen and ceiling-capped K.J. Osborn shouldn't slow Jefferson down).
(5) Jonathan Taylor -- Assuming he stays healthy, and assuming the Colts find someone better than Sam Ehlinger at QB, Taylor could be the #1 fantasy running back next season. Or he might settle in as a back-end top-10 option. But as one of the few RBs with #1 upside, I like taking him here.
(6) Joe Mixon -- Surprising myself with this pick, but sticking with it. Was big on Mixon last summer, and he came through. Was down on him this summer, and he's regressed (though that one huge performance was legendary). He'll be only 27 next year, and will look to build on career highs in targets (70 and counting). To me, that's the key. The TDs will come. But another 50+ receptions should keep him comfortably inside the top 10.
(7) Patrick Mahomes -- Going for it. Josh Allen's mobility makes him more appealing in some ways. But with Mahomes, we're getting 20+ fantasy points per game with a legit shot at 25+ (something he's done three of the last five seasons). In fact, a decent day tomorrow would make him the highest fantasy-scoring QB in history, surpassing his own mark from 2018 (albeit with one extra game).
(8) Breece Hall -- The Jets' offense was never the same after Hall got hurt. On a defensive-minded team that should enjoy a relatively easy schedule outside the AFC East, Hall (5.8 YPC on 80 carries) easily could hit 1,200+ rushing yards, 40+ receptions, and 10+ TDs. After all, he was on pace to crush all three of those marks before getting hurt.
(9) Cam Akers -- This assumes the Rams' offense will get back on track in 2023. A year ago, I publicly pegged Akers as a top-5 RB. Clearly, he wasn't. But after the dust settled on their disastrous season, he's emerged as the dominant force this franchise envisioned he could be.
(10) Kenneth Walker -- Imagine a full season of a healthy Walker with no apparent competition.
(11) Nick Chubb -- The lack of receptions will continue to keep him out of elite circles. But top 8-12 is entirely realistic, and he clearly has some top 3-5 pop. Not a flashy pick. But a reasonable one if we're looking to lock in one of the most efficient RBs in decades.
(12) Javonte Williams -- Some of you will have a nice laugh over this one. Where's Jacobs? Barkley? Derrick Henry? They've been overutilized this season, and I don't trust them as top-10 options next year. What about Aaron Jones or Dalvin Cook? Both will enter their age-28 seasons, with Jones capped by A.J. Dillon. And I strongly believe Minnesota will draft or sign an RB to help reduce Cook's load, since he's signed for three more years--or they could cut him if they don't want to pay him $35 million the next three years.
So to keep things interesting--and because I believe in him--I'm going with Javonte Williams at the end of the first round. He was a top-20 RB splitting touches with Melvin Gordon as a rookie. Denver's defense and presumbly easier schedule should improve their game scripts. Williams should remain "the guy" in this backfield. Assuming the passing game isn't once again a complete mess, Williams could push for 275+ touches and top-10 RB production.
Looking forward to hearing who you think should be first-round picks.
I'll kick things off. This assumes one-QB PPR leagues. No unusual scoring. And I gotta say, a paragraph ago this exercise seemed much easier. So I'll start with guys I'm a bit uneasy about. Will CMC dominate touches, or will he be paired "too much" with Elijah Mitchell, capping his ceiling while the Niners keep him fresh for the postseason? Can a 28-year-old Austin Ekeler still dominate? Are any QBs sure-fire first-rounders, or is it safer to wait?
And then there are the wild cards. Where will Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, and other impending free agents play? So many variables--like Pollard splitting touches with Dameon Pierce in Houston vs. operating as the bell cow in Miami (with Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson set to become free agents).
This is why there are no right answers. We're simply making educated guesses based on the possibilities.
(1) Austin Ekeler -- He's the #1 fantasy RB this year, though that's not why I'd pick him first next year. Pretty durable. Great offense. Elite usage in the passing game. Hard to go wrong as long as he stays on the field
(2) Travis Etienne -- Can't make this too generic. Etienne has Year 2 pop written all over him. (And yeah, I'm calling this year "Year 1," since last year he didn't play a snap.) Ascending QB/offense and the unquestioned bell cow. If not for splitting touches with James Robinson early this season, he'd be on pace for 300 touches.
(3) Christian McCaffrey -- Not at all safe, but unquestionably dominant when healthy. Presumably, the Niners' offense will be very good for at least one more year, although we don't know who will be starting at QB. Can CMC be elite if Trey Lance is running the show? Certainly some risks. But the upside makes him worth it.
(4) Justin Jefferson -- Miami's QB situation concerns me, so Tyreek Hill is out. Davante Adams surely has peaked at 30 years old. And Ja'Marr Chase is probably a better pick for the early second round. The only WR I want in round 1 is Jefferson. Young, ascending, and with minimal WR competition (a fading Adam Thielen and ceiling-capped K.J. Osborn shouldn't slow Jefferson down).
(5) Jonathan Taylor -- Assuming he stays healthy, and assuming the Colts find someone better than Sam Ehlinger at QB, Taylor could be the #1 fantasy running back next season. Or he might settle in as a back-end top-10 option. But as one of the few RBs with #1 upside, I like taking him here.
(6) Joe Mixon -- Surprising myself with this pick, but sticking with it. Was big on Mixon last summer, and he came through. Was down on him this summer, and he's regressed (though that one huge performance was legendary). He'll be only 27 next year, and will look to build on career highs in targets (70 and counting). To me, that's the key. The TDs will come. But another 50+ receptions should keep him comfortably inside the top 10.
(7) Patrick Mahomes -- Going for it. Josh Allen's mobility makes him more appealing in some ways. But with Mahomes, we're getting 20+ fantasy points per game with a legit shot at 25+ (something he's done three of the last five seasons). In fact, a decent day tomorrow would make him the highest fantasy-scoring QB in history, surpassing his own mark from 2018 (albeit with one extra game).
(8) Breece Hall -- The Jets' offense was never the same after Hall got hurt. On a defensive-minded team that should enjoy a relatively easy schedule outside the AFC East, Hall (5.8 YPC on 80 carries) easily could hit 1,200+ rushing yards, 40+ receptions, and 10+ TDs. After all, he was on pace to crush all three of those marks before getting hurt.
(9) Cam Akers -- This assumes the Rams' offense will get back on track in 2023. A year ago, I publicly pegged Akers as a top-5 RB. Clearly, he wasn't. But after the dust settled on their disastrous season, he's emerged as the dominant force this franchise envisioned he could be.
(10) Kenneth Walker -- Imagine a full season of a healthy Walker with no apparent competition.
(11) Nick Chubb -- The lack of receptions will continue to keep him out of elite circles. But top 8-12 is entirely realistic, and he clearly has some top 3-5 pop. Not a flashy pick. But a reasonable one if we're looking to lock in one of the most efficient RBs in decades.
(12) Javonte Williams -- Some of you will have a nice laugh over this one. Where's Jacobs? Barkley? Derrick Henry? They've been overutilized this season, and I don't trust them as top-10 options next year. What about Aaron Jones or Dalvin Cook? Both will enter their age-28 seasons, with Jones capped by A.J. Dillon. And I strongly believe Minnesota will draft or sign an RB to help reduce Cook's load, since he's signed for three more years--or they could cut him if they don't want to pay him $35 million the next three years.
So to keep things interesting--and because I believe in him--I'm going with Javonte Williams at the end of the first round. He was a top-20 RB splitting touches with Melvin Gordon as a rookie. Denver's defense and presumbly easier schedule should improve their game scripts. Williams should remain "the guy" in this backfield. Assuming the passing game isn't once again a complete mess, Williams could push for 275+ touches and top-10 RB production.
Looking forward to hearing who you think should be first-round picks.