I was looking through numbers yesterday and noticed some interesting 2022 stats that surely have fantasy implications, at least on a macro level. The question is whether they're a sign of things to come, or if 2022 was an anomaly.
Through 16 games, only seven teams have thrown for 4,000+ yards, compared to 11 in the first 16 games last year. In 2020, that number was 15 teams. In 2019, seven. In 2018, 14.
Conversely, 13 teams have 2,000+ rushing yards this year, compared to eight in the first 16 games last year. In 2020, that number was 10 teams. In 2019, nine. In 2018, eight.
Not to overstate the stats, but there seems to be a small-but-meaningful shift. Is it tied to a shift among a few teams, or is it more league-wide? Well, there are three teams that have called more running plays than passing plays this year: the Bears, Falcons, and Ravens. All three have had run-friendly QBs and very sub-par passing attacks.
Then we can go a step further, discovering that for the first time in NFL history (from what I can find), five QBs have carried the ball 100+ times this season. Kyler Murray was on pace to be #7 if he hadn't gotten hurt. Marcus Mariota was on pace to be #8 if he hadn't gotten benched. And Deshaun Watson was on pace to be #9 if he hadn't gotten suspended.
Consider the number of plays called each season (roughly 1,000-1,100 per team), and how a dual-threat QB running the ball 100+ times might dramatically alter the usage of that team's RBs and receivers.
Food for thought. Not yet actionable. More research is needed. But fascinating to think what fantasy might look like--how we might draft--if the NFL of the future has even more dual-threat QBs. Because that seems to be the trend.
Through 16 games, only seven teams have thrown for 4,000+ yards, compared to 11 in the first 16 games last year. In 2020, that number was 15 teams. In 2019, seven. In 2018, 14.
Conversely, 13 teams have 2,000+ rushing yards this year, compared to eight in the first 16 games last year. In 2020, that number was 10 teams. In 2019, nine. In 2018, eight.
Not to overstate the stats, but there seems to be a small-but-meaningful shift. Is it tied to a shift among a few teams, or is it more league-wide? Well, there are three teams that have called more running plays than passing plays this year: the Bears, Falcons, and Ravens. All three have had run-friendly QBs and very sub-par passing attacks.
Then we can go a step further, discovering that for the first time in NFL history (from what I can find), five QBs have carried the ball 100+ times this season. Kyler Murray was on pace to be #7 if he hadn't gotten hurt. Marcus Mariota was on pace to be #8 if he hadn't gotten benched. And Deshaun Watson was on pace to be #9 if he hadn't gotten suspended.
Consider the number of plays called each season (roughly 1,000-1,100 per team), and how a dual-threat QB running the ball 100+ times might dramatically alter the usage of that team's RBs and receivers.
Food for thought. Not yet actionable. More research is needed. But fascinating to think what fantasy might look like--how we might draft--if the NFL of the future has even more dual-threat QBs. Because that seems to be the trend.