The final Thursday Night Football game of the season also might be the strangest. We began with the Bills obliterating the defending-champion Rams on opening night. Now we might witness the Cowboys obliterating the defending AFC-1-seed Titans.
I'm not here to rip on Tennessee. If you're a fan of the team, fantastic. But this summer I warned that they were largely a Derrick-Henry-or-bust offense, and that their brutally tough schedule would limit them to eight or nine wins. Admittedly, I thought the Jaguars were a year away, preferring the Colts to take the division title. Instead, with Indy collapsing under the weight of yet another underperforming QB, the Jaguars control their playoff destiny.
But interestingly, so do the Titans. They can lose their sixth straight game tonight and still eke into the postseason with a victory over Jacksonville next weekend. That's why I shared on PFN's website Monday morning that I didn't expect Henry to get a full workload even if he started. As of late Wednesday night, his status remained in doubt.
If he starts, I'd fade him in fantasy on the assumption Dallas wins easily. A Henry ACL tear would throw this partially rebuilding franchise into turmoil until 2024 at the earliest. It would be a disaster if they don't make the playoffs after starting 7-3. But it would be an *epic* disaster if Henry can't compete in Week 18.
That leaves Hassan Haskins and Julius Chestnut in the backield, and perhaps Jonathan Ward. If you're desperate, Ward was the most active in college in the passing game, reeling in 98 balls for 909 yards. Unless Haskins or Chestnut steps up through the air, they'll be TD-dependent in a likely negative game script. Ward might not touch the ball once. But if he does, I think he'll bring the biggest boom (relatively speaking).
Speaking of the passing game, I'm recommending Chris Conley as a cheap flier in DFS. And "cheap" is key. Conley was one of the league's fastest receivers when he entered the league in 2015. I haven't timed him recently (too busy parenting, I guess). But in a blowout loss, Tennessee could do worse than throw this journeyman out there deep into the game. Most of his recent TDs have been from 25+ yards out. He's the ultimate boom-bust play on a team with no one assured of 10+ points.
For Dallas, I'll start with their DST. If you got 'em, this is the week to start 'em (just like most weeks, I guess). Malik Willis has an outside shot at picking up 40+ rushing yards and taking a nice step forward in his development. Or . . . he could take more sacks and commit more turnovers. The Cowboys DST could help managers win their title, plain and simple.
Through the air, I'm all in on Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and yes, Dalton Schultz, who actually leads Dallas with 15 red-zone targets. I believe the Cowboys will look to get him more involved. Michael Gallup hasn't stepped up as a consistent #2 WR, and Noah Brown isn't necessrily the answer in the playoffs. Schultz is one of the best playmaking TEs in the game. Dallas needs to get him going, and I think they will.
On the ground, chaos. But not necessarily. Tony Pollard is questionable. If he sits Ezekiel Elliott seems like an automatic start. And yeah, he should get 8+ points, no problem. But the Titans' elite run defense is concerning, including stopping rushing scores. If you don't have a near-automatic top-20 RB, then Zeke makes sense. But if Pollard is a full go, I'd lean Pollard in PPR.
And a shout-out to all you RB-needy maanagers. I get it. Times are tough. Well, have you thought about Malik Davis? Here's a scenario where Davis leads all Cowboys in rushing attempts and rushing yards: Pollard sits, the Cowboys take an early two-touchdown lead through its receivers, and the team decides to temporarily phase out Zeke to see how Davis fares on a drive or two. Davis caught 54 passes in his final two collegiate campaigns.
That's not to say Davis will be good tonight. But if Pollard sits, there's a clear path for Davis to eat up touches and (possibly) get a goal-line look or two in a blowout victory. Volume is often key. I don't see Zeke earning 18+ touches, and I also don't see Dak needing to throw 40 times. Davis should have a role. The question is "how much."
Final-score prediction: 32-12 Cowboys. For those keeping track, that would be a Scorigami--a score that's never happened in an NFL game. In Dak's last 16 full games (e.g. not Week 1), the Cowboys are averaging just over 35 points per contest. I don't see Tennessee slowing them down. Maybe I'll be completely wrong. After all, it's Thursday. Anything can and will happen. But I'm going all in on a game script heavily favoring Dallas.
Leave your final-score prediction below, and good luck if you've got skin in the game tonight.
I'm not here to rip on Tennessee. If you're a fan of the team, fantastic. But this summer I warned that they were largely a Derrick-Henry-or-bust offense, and that their brutally tough schedule would limit them to eight or nine wins. Admittedly, I thought the Jaguars were a year away, preferring the Colts to take the division title. Instead, with Indy collapsing under the weight of yet another underperforming QB, the Jaguars control their playoff destiny.
But interestingly, so do the Titans. They can lose their sixth straight game tonight and still eke into the postseason with a victory over Jacksonville next weekend. That's why I shared on PFN's website Monday morning that I didn't expect Henry to get a full workload even if he started. As of late Wednesday night, his status remained in doubt.
If he starts, I'd fade him in fantasy on the assumption Dallas wins easily. A Henry ACL tear would throw this partially rebuilding franchise into turmoil until 2024 at the earliest. It would be a disaster if they don't make the playoffs after starting 7-3. But it would be an *epic* disaster if Henry can't compete in Week 18.
That leaves Hassan Haskins and Julius Chestnut in the backield, and perhaps Jonathan Ward. If you're desperate, Ward was the most active in college in the passing game, reeling in 98 balls for 909 yards. Unless Haskins or Chestnut steps up through the air, they'll be TD-dependent in a likely negative game script. Ward might not touch the ball once. But if he does, I think he'll bring the biggest boom (relatively speaking).
Speaking of the passing game, I'm recommending Chris Conley as a cheap flier in DFS. And "cheap" is key. Conley was one of the league's fastest receivers when he entered the league in 2015. I haven't timed him recently (too busy parenting, I guess). But in a blowout loss, Tennessee could do worse than throw this journeyman out there deep into the game. Most of his recent TDs have been from 25+ yards out. He's the ultimate boom-bust play on a team with no one assured of 10+ points.
For Dallas, I'll start with their DST. If you got 'em, this is the week to start 'em (just like most weeks, I guess). Malik Willis has an outside shot at picking up 40+ rushing yards and taking a nice step forward in his development. Or . . . he could take more sacks and commit more turnovers. The Cowboys DST could help managers win their title, plain and simple.
Through the air, I'm all in on Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and yes, Dalton Schultz, who actually leads Dallas with 15 red-zone targets. I believe the Cowboys will look to get him more involved. Michael Gallup hasn't stepped up as a consistent #2 WR, and Noah Brown isn't necessrily the answer in the playoffs. Schultz is one of the best playmaking TEs in the game. Dallas needs to get him going, and I think they will.
On the ground, chaos. But not necessarily. Tony Pollard is questionable. If he sits Ezekiel Elliott seems like an automatic start. And yeah, he should get 8+ points, no problem. But the Titans' elite run defense is concerning, including stopping rushing scores. If you don't have a near-automatic top-20 RB, then Zeke makes sense. But if Pollard is a full go, I'd lean Pollard in PPR.
And a shout-out to all you RB-needy maanagers. I get it. Times are tough. Well, have you thought about Malik Davis? Here's a scenario where Davis leads all Cowboys in rushing attempts and rushing yards: Pollard sits, the Cowboys take an early two-touchdown lead through its receivers, and the team decides to temporarily phase out Zeke to see how Davis fares on a drive or two. Davis caught 54 passes in his final two collegiate campaigns.
That's not to say Davis will be good tonight. But if Pollard sits, there's a clear path for Davis to eat up touches and (possibly) get a goal-line look or two in a blowout victory. Volume is often key. I don't see Zeke earning 18+ touches, and I also don't see Dak needing to throw 40 times. Davis should have a role. The question is "how much."
Final-score prediction: 32-12 Cowboys. For those keeping track, that would be a Scorigami--a score that's never happened in an NFL game. In Dak's last 16 full games (e.g. not Week 1), the Cowboys are averaging just over 35 points per contest. I don't see Tennessee slowing them down. Maybe I'll be completely wrong. After all, it's Thursday. Anything can and will happen. But I'm going all in on a game script heavily favoring Dallas.
Leave your final-score prediction below, and good luck if you've got skin in the game tonight.