As most of you know, I don't deal in absolutes. As a result, I'm having trouble pinning down the most likely outcome for tonight's Jets-Jaguars game. And for that matter, I'm having trouble understanding the most likely outcomes for a number of Week 16 games impacted by the oncoming "bomb cyclone" weather conditions that might or might not wreak havoc on six or more contests.
So let's keep things simple. Some rain and occasionally heavy winds tonight should adversely impact each side's passing game. But how much? Last weekend, the Bills beat the Dolphins 32-29 in a supposedly bad-weather game that featured 70 relatively efficient pass attempts. That's not to equate Zach Wilson with either Josh Allen or Tua. But Jacksonville has one of the league's worst pass defenses.
And that's the key here. I don't think the Jets can win this one solely on the ground. Zonovan Knight has been a revelation. He's also near the league's bottom with only 1.1 yards after contact. He and Michael Carter will do their best to push a pretty capable Jags run D backward. But I have to believe Wilson will need to win this one through the air.
That's because Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and the rest of Jacksonville's playmakers will be tough to stop. They can strike quickly. In the last four weeks, they scored 28 versus the Ravens (fourth fewest points against in the NFL), 36 versus the Titans (12th fewest points against), and 40 against the Cowboys (seventh fewest points against).
The Jets have a near-elite defense. But I think the Jags are great bets to score 17+, and that should put pressure on New York to take the game to Jacksonville's weak spots.
This is also a must-win game for both teams. Yeah, Jacksonville can still control their postseason fate if they lose, as long as the Titans lose one of the next two games. But for all intents and purposes, this is a pseudo playoff game. That means if one teams takes a double digit lead, we might see the other team take more risks than usual on offense and defense, including going for it repeatedly on fourth downs.
It should be a fascinating game, and I have to believe Zach Wilson and his collection of superb young receivers (as well as the likely returning Corey Davis) will capitalize. This might be Wilson's last best shot at securing the starting job ahead of 2023. If he flops, he'll have an uphill climb to prove he belongs atop the depth chart in Year 3. I like betting on talent, and I'm comfortable betting on him with his back against the wall.
Taking the Jets 27-22. Leave your prediction below, and good luck.
So let's keep things simple. Some rain and occasionally heavy winds tonight should adversely impact each side's passing game. But how much? Last weekend, the Bills beat the Dolphins 32-29 in a supposedly bad-weather game that featured 70 relatively efficient pass attempts. That's not to equate Zach Wilson with either Josh Allen or Tua. But Jacksonville has one of the league's worst pass defenses.
And that's the key here. I don't think the Jets can win this one solely on the ground. Zonovan Knight has been a revelation. He's also near the league's bottom with only 1.1 yards after contact. He and Michael Carter will do their best to push a pretty capable Jags run D backward. But I have to believe Wilson will need to win this one through the air.
That's because Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and the rest of Jacksonville's playmakers will be tough to stop. They can strike quickly. In the last four weeks, they scored 28 versus the Ravens (fourth fewest points against in the NFL), 36 versus the Titans (12th fewest points against), and 40 against the Cowboys (seventh fewest points against).
The Jets have a near-elite defense. But I think the Jags are great bets to score 17+, and that should put pressure on New York to take the game to Jacksonville's weak spots.
This is also a must-win game for both teams. Yeah, Jacksonville can still control their postseason fate if they lose, as long as the Titans lose one of the next two games. But for all intents and purposes, this is a pseudo playoff game. That means if one teams takes a double digit lead, we might see the other team take more risks than usual on offense and defense, including going for it repeatedly on fourth downs.
It should be a fascinating game, and I have to believe Zach Wilson and his collection of superb young receivers (as well as the likely returning Corey Davis) will capitalize. This might be Wilson's last best shot at securing the starting job ahead of 2023. If he flops, he'll have an uphill climb to prove he belongs atop the depth chart in Year 3. I like betting on talent, and I'm comfortable betting on him with his back against the wall.
Taking the Jets 27-22. Leave your prediction below, and good luck.