A big Merry Christmas to those who celebrate. Three big games on the docket today. First, some quick thoughts on a few of yesterday's games.
The Browns are officially eliminated from postseason contention. So far, Deshaun Watson has been a disaster. His 2-2 record doesn't adequately reflect how rusty he's looked. He's thrown only two TD passes, and only twice has one of his receivers hit 60+ yards. Fair to wonder if Jacoby Brissett could have done better. Cleveland's $250 million (guaranteed) investment is a major question mark heading into these final two games, since losing him to a serious injury would be a disaster. Instead, fantasy managers have to hope he'll be return to his former top-10 self in 2023. I have doubts.
In New England, Mac Jones was similarly atrocious until late in the third quarter. It'll be interesting to see if he starts next week, or if Bill Belichick's had enough. A shift to Bailey Zappe would generate some fantasy chaos for those starting Jakobi Meyers. And if Damien Harris returns, Rhamondre Stevenson could officially devolve into a "risky streamer."
I've taken some heat this season for picking the Titans *not* to win their division--even when they were riding high at 7-3. The problem was an awful passing attack, sub-par pass defense, and brutal late-season schedule. Now they're 7-8 and on the verge of missing out on the postseason. Fantasy-wise, with Ryan Tannehill reportedly out these final two games, it's hard to imagine Derrick Henry keeping pace with the Cowboys next weekend. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Tennessee keeps him mostly on ice, resting him for the all-important Week 18 showdown with the Jags.
Now, for today's games, the Packers are highly beatable against the run. The problem is, we don't know if Raheem Mostert can replicate last week's heroics, or if a returning Jeff Wilson might cap Mostert's upside. Tua, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle once again seem like the only safe plays. For Green Bay, the backfield is back to being a 50/50 situation. Not helpful for many of you. Through the air, I like Aaron Rodgers hitting 18+. Between Allen Lazard, Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson, I imagine two will hit 9+. But I'm not comfortable predicting the kind of old-fashioned Rodgers blow-up game that can feed all three.
For the Rams vs. Broncos, this final score realistically could be 12-6. The Rams' D is good enough to contain Denver, and Denver's D is good enough to contain L.A. I'm not comfortable betting on any Rams except Cam Akers for 6+. And for Denver, Latavius Murray seems like a trap play. I suppose Jerry Jeudy or Courtland Sutton can hit 11+ points. In other words, this is a great game to pick a D/ST if you still have that option.
For the nightcap, I'm a sucker for believing in a good Tom Brady outing. It's just that Arizona's pass defense is lacking, and their run D isn't much better. Tampa Bay should be able to move the ball fairly easily. I'm all in on Mike Evans (14+) and Chris Godwin (12+). Brady should get 17+. Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White are, as always, solid streamers with some TD pop. And for Arizona, DeAndre Hopkins might be QB-proof, so we should expect 8+ points. And James Conner will thrive *if* he's a frequent safety valve through the air. I don't trust anyone else in that offense with Trace McSorley at QB.
Good luck today.
The Browns are officially eliminated from postseason contention. So far, Deshaun Watson has been a disaster. His 2-2 record doesn't adequately reflect how rusty he's looked. He's thrown only two TD passes, and only twice has one of his receivers hit 60+ yards. Fair to wonder if Jacoby Brissett could have done better. Cleveland's $250 million (guaranteed) investment is a major question mark heading into these final two games, since losing him to a serious injury would be a disaster. Instead, fantasy managers have to hope he'll be return to his former top-10 self in 2023. I have doubts.
In New England, Mac Jones was similarly atrocious until late in the third quarter. It'll be interesting to see if he starts next week, or if Bill Belichick's had enough. A shift to Bailey Zappe would generate some fantasy chaos for those starting Jakobi Meyers. And if Damien Harris returns, Rhamondre Stevenson could officially devolve into a "risky streamer."
I've taken some heat this season for picking the Titans *not* to win their division--even when they were riding high at 7-3. The problem was an awful passing attack, sub-par pass defense, and brutal late-season schedule. Now they're 7-8 and on the verge of missing out on the postseason. Fantasy-wise, with Ryan Tannehill reportedly out these final two games, it's hard to imagine Derrick Henry keeping pace with the Cowboys next weekend. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Tennessee keeps him mostly on ice, resting him for the all-important Week 18 showdown with the Jags.
Now, for today's games, the Packers are highly beatable against the run. The problem is, we don't know if Raheem Mostert can replicate last week's heroics, or if a returning Jeff Wilson might cap Mostert's upside. Tua, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle once again seem like the only safe plays. For Green Bay, the backfield is back to being a 50/50 situation. Not helpful for many of you. Through the air, I like Aaron Rodgers hitting 18+. Between Allen Lazard, Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson, I imagine two will hit 9+. But I'm not comfortable predicting the kind of old-fashioned Rodgers blow-up game that can feed all three.
For the Rams vs. Broncos, this final score realistically could be 12-6. The Rams' D is good enough to contain Denver, and Denver's D is good enough to contain L.A. I'm not comfortable betting on any Rams except Cam Akers for 6+. And for Denver, Latavius Murray seems like a trap play. I suppose Jerry Jeudy or Courtland Sutton can hit 11+ points. In other words, this is a great game to pick a D/ST if you still have that option.
For the nightcap, I'm a sucker for believing in a good Tom Brady outing. It's just that Arizona's pass defense is lacking, and their run D isn't much better. Tampa Bay should be able to move the ball fairly easily. I'm all in on Mike Evans (14+) and Chris Godwin (12+). Brady should get 17+. Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White are, as always, solid streamers with some TD pop. And for Arizona, DeAndre Hopkins might be QB-proof, so we should expect 8+ points. And James Conner will thrive *if* he's a frequent safety valve through the air. I don't trust anyone else in that offense with Trace McSorley at QB.
Good luck today.