Some teams have two starter-ready quarterbacks. Others have three. Apparently, the Colts have zero.
In a week that saw seven starting QBs score less than seven points--including Justin Herbert and Derek Carr--Nick Foles finished in the negative.
This caps one of the most unusual playoff weeks in recent memory. Among customarily startable/streaming QBs, four scored less than 11 points (Tua and Justin Fields, along with Herbert and Carr). 11 startable/streaming RBs had six points or less, including normal stalwarts like Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones, and Rhamondre Stevenson.
Meanwhile, 10 nearly universal WR starters had less than six points, including Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and Mike Evans. DeAndre Hopkins had a mere 1.4 points on 10 targets. I didn't think that was possible, except when playing Madden against a friend who practices every night.
For every Gardner Minshew, there's at least one Nick Foles. We have a good sense which backup is better. But nothing's guaranteed.
And for every Diggs, there's at least one Greg Dortch or Isaiah Hodgins or Trenton Irwin. We're confident about who's better. But again, nothing's guaranteed. The game is the game. We're just trying to maximize the odds.
Regarding last night's contest, the Chargers are now into the postseason with three straight wins. They'll be dangerous with a healthy receiving corps. Although Herbert faltered, he remains a near-elite QB. However, he hasn't exhibited the blow-up numbers we saw last year. Next week he'll get the Rams at home. He's no safe bet in, for many off you, is championship week.
Austin Ekeler also isn't a safe best. Yes, he scored twice yesterday. But once again, he was inefficient on the ground, and he didn't get much traction through the air. With 22 more touches, he's up to 282 on the season. At this rate, he'll hit 330+ including one playoff game. If they advance, he'll be on pace to exceed 350. His career high was 276 (last season). This year he's having the worst season of his career relative to yards per carry, yards after contact, and other key metrics.
For example, his broken-tackle rate reached a career low last year: one broken tackle per 15.8 carries. Entering last night (the most current data I can find), he was averaging one broken tackle per 82.5 carries.
I can't recommend benching Ekeler entirely. But I'm sharing these numbers because L.A. has little to play for. A slightly improved seed won't compensate for a late-season injury to one of their key players. I think we'll see more Joshua Kelley and Isaiah Spiller next week, while Ekeler coasts to no more than 14 touches.
Meanwhile, the Colts are headed to New York to face the Giants. Head coach Jeff Saturday has a nearly impossible decision to make at QB, as none of his guys deserve to start. I couldn't recommend any Colts next weekend. That's not a bold take, I realize. But it needs to be said.
Finally, the closest-score competition. I'm seeing Eddie Gallagher as the winner. He predicted 24-9 Chargers. If I missed a prediction, please ping me so I can go back through it again. But I've gone through it twice and can't find anyone closer. Congrats Eddie! This is his first victory. We'll do this twice more: this Thursday (the final TNF game of the year) and next Monday (the final MNF game).
In a week that saw seven starting QBs score less than seven points--including Justin Herbert and Derek Carr--Nick Foles finished in the negative.
This caps one of the most unusual playoff weeks in recent memory. Among customarily startable/streaming QBs, four scored less than 11 points (Tua and Justin Fields, along with Herbert and Carr). 11 startable/streaming RBs had six points or less, including normal stalwarts like Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones, and Rhamondre Stevenson.
Meanwhile, 10 nearly universal WR starters had less than six points, including Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and Mike Evans. DeAndre Hopkins had a mere 1.4 points on 10 targets. I didn't think that was possible, except when playing Madden against a friend who practices every night.
For every Gardner Minshew, there's at least one Nick Foles. We have a good sense which backup is better. But nothing's guaranteed.
And for every Diggs, there's at least one Greg Dortch or Isaiah Hodgins or Trenton Irwin. We're confident about who's better. But again, nothing's guaranteed. The game is the game. We're just trying to maximize the odds.
Regarding last night's contest, the Chargers are now into the postseason with three straight wins. They'll be dangerous with a healthy receiving corps. Although Herbert faltered, he remains a near-elite QB. However, he hasn't exhibited the blow-up numbers we saw last year. Next week he'll get the Rams at home. He's no safe bet in, for many off you, is championship week.
Austin Ekeler also isn't a safe best. Yes, he scored twice yesterday. But once again, he was inefficient on the ground, and he didn't get much traction through the air. With 22 more touches, he's up to 282 on the season. At this rate, he'll hit 330+ including one playoff game. If they advance, he'll be on pace to exceed 350. His career high was 276 (last season). This year he's having the worst season of his career relative to yards per carry, yards after contact, and other key metrics.
For example, his broken-tackle rate reached a career low last year: one broken tackle per 15.8 carries. Entering last night (the most current data I can find), he was averaging one broken tackle per 82.5 carries.
I can't recommend benching Ekeler entirely. But I'm sharing these numbers because L.A. has little to play for. A slightly improved seed won't compensate for a late-season injury to one of their key players. I think we'll see more Joshua Kelley and Isaiah Spiller next week, while Ekeler coasts to no more than 14 touches.
Meanwhile, the Colts are headed to New York to face the Giants. Head coach Jeff Saturday has a nearly impossible decision to make at QB, as none of his guys deserve to start. I couldn't recommend any Colts next weekend. That's not a bold take, I realize. But it needs to be said.
Finally, the closest-score competition. I'm seeing Eddie Gallagher as the winner. He predicted 24-9 Chargers. If I missed a prediction, please ping me so I can go back through it again. But I've gone through it twice and can't find anyone closer. Congrats Eddie! This is his first victory. We'll do this twice more: this Thursday (the final TNF game of the year) and next Monday (the final MNF game).