A lot's changed since the Seahawks and 49ers last played in Week 2. San Francisco won that game 27-7. Trey Lance was knocked out for the season late in the first quarter, replaced by Jimmy Garoppolo, who's of course now out until late January or early February (if the Niners make it that far).
Meanwhile, Jeff Wilson and Tyrion Davis-Price combined for 32 carries. Wilson of course is now in Miami; Davis-Price is the third-stringer behind UDFA Jordan Mason. Deebo Samuel co-led all receivers in that contest with nine touches; he's now out for several weeks. Oh, and George Kittle was sidelined for that one, replaced by Ross Dwelley, who caught the game's only TD pass.
On the surface, Seattle looks almost the same. Kenneth Walker and Rashaad Penny each had six touches in a negative game script. It marked Walker's NFL debut. Now he's returning from his own injury as the unquestioned bell cow.
And yet, the Seahawks are an entirely different team. Back in Week 2, Geno Smith was still the starter by default--the "winner" of a preseason QB battle that was ongoing. Smith had a mixed preseason, while Lock missed the crucial second August game. In the regular season, Smith was brilliant in the opener against the Broncos and only so-so versus the 49ers. There was still a sense that the journeyman Smith--who'd started only seven games since the start of 2015--might not be the long-term answer for the supposedly rebuilding Seahawks.
So yeah, a lot's changed. Smith is not only entrenched as the starter; he leads the league in completion percentage, owns a terrific 25/8 TD/INT clip, and has helped make his team a playoff contender. These Seahawks had the third-worst Super Bowl odds before Week 1, beating out only the Falcons and Texans. So again, a lot's changed.
Heading into tonight, there's little doubt what San Francisco's game plan will be. Seattle has one of the league's worst run defenses. Christian McCaffrey appears primed for a 20+ touch performance, and could hit 26-28 if the game's close (which I think it will be). Jordan Mason will continue to back him up, though fantasy-wise we should consider that he hasn't caught an NFL pass yet and was used sparingly through the air in college. Mason's too TD-dependent for me to trust, unless you're truly desperate.
Through the air, whether it's Brock Purdy or (if he has a setback) Josh Johnson, I'm wondering if we'll see more than 20 completions, with no more than 15 going to players not named CMC. Brandon Aiyuk seems as risky as ever. Yeah, he scored last week . . . on three targets in a losing effort with Deebo ailing. This is a different team without Jimmy G. And although I can't justify benching George Kittle, he's been unstartable in four of five games. His receptions and yards per game are at their lowest levels since his 2017 rookie campaign. Kittle is officially TD-dependent from my perspective.
Elsewhere, Jauan Jennings is a deep-league dart throw, though at least he's starting. I'm guessing somewhere around 3-35. The 2021 seventh-round pick was the second-slowest wideout at that year's NFL combine (out of 45 receivers). He also has an unconscionable 10 drops on 81 career targets. So you see where I'm going with this. If you want a higher-upside boom-bust flier, I'd go with rookie Danny Gray, who's coming off a career-high target share in Week 14. That should continue to push upward with Deebo out.
For Seattle, yeah, their opponents have the best run defense by most metrics, and their pass defense is arguably terrific. Starting on the ground, I can't fathom benching Kenneth Walker. Yeah, he might end up with an 18-67 rushing line with two catches for nine yards. But you're hoping for a score. Due to injury, he's fairly well rested for this one. I like him cracking nine points, and for me, that's usually enough to start an RB unless you're sitting on two other near-automatic top-20 options. Because as we saw last week wit Josh Jacobs, a touchdown can mean the difference between barely statartable and must-start.
Through the air, consider who San Francisco's played: the Chiefs, Dolphins, Seahawks, Bears, Broncos, Rams (twice), Panthers, Falcons, Saints, Chargers (no Keenan Allen or Mike Williams), Cardinals (no Kyler Murray, Marquise Brown, or Rondale Moore), and Buccaneers (no offensive line, fifth-fewest points per game). Aside from Kansas City and Miami, which of those other passing attacks would have struck fear in the Niners' secondary--or most NFL secondaries? Maybe Tampa Bay? Barely?
Lost in the stats is the context of a pass defense that's about to face (probably) its third-toughest passing offense of the season--significantly better than the one they beat in Week 2, despite the mostly same personnel. I expect Smith, D.K. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett to all be startable in deep leagues. 16+ points seems reasonable for Smith in a must-win game. Metcalf and Lockett are good bets for 10+ points each; as always, a score is the key, and we can never fully predict touchdowns. But 5-50+ or both seem reasonable.
I'm picking the Niners in this one 24-22. One of the better Thursday Night Football games of the year, and a reminder that divisional battles between playoff contenders are must-see TV.
Leave your final-score prediction below, as well as any push-back, questions, or what you need to happen tonight. And good luck.
Meanwhile, Jeff Wilson and Tyrion Davis-Price combined for 32 carries. Wilson of course is now in Miami; Davis-Price is the third-stringer behind UDFA Jordan Mason. Deebo Samuel co-led all receivers in that contest with nine touches; he's now out for several weeks. Oh, and George Kittle was sidelined for that one, replaced by Ross Dwelley, who caught the game's only TD pass.
On the surface, Seattle looks almost the same. Kenneth Walker and Rashaad Penny each had six touches in a negative game script. It marked Walker's NFL debut. Now he's returning from his own injury as the unquestioned bell cow.
And yet, the Seahawks are an entirely different team. Back in Week 2, Geno Smith was still the starter by default--the "winner" of a preseason QB battle that was ongoing. Smith had a mixed preseason, while Lock missed the crucial second August game. In the regular season, Smith was brilliant in the opener against the Broncos and only so-so versus the 49ers. There was still a sense that the journeyman Smith--who'd started only seven games since the start of 2015--might not be the long-term answer for the supposedly rebuilding Seahawks.
So yeah, a lot's changed. Smith is not only entrenched as the starter; he leads the league in completion percentage, owns a terrific 25/8 TD/INT clip, and has helped make his team a playoff contender. These Seahawks had the third-worst Super Bowl odds before Week 1, beating out only the Falcons and Texans. So again, a lot's changed.
Heading into tonight, there's little doubt what San Francisco's game plan will be. Seattle has one of the league's worst run defenses. Christian McCaffrey appears primed for a 20+ touch performance, and could hit 26-28 if the game's close (which I think it will be). Jordan Mason will continue to back him up, though fantasy-wise we should consider that he hasn't caught an NFL pass yet and was used sparingly through the air in college. Mason's too TD-dependent for me to trust, unless you're truly desperate.
Through the air, whether it's Brock Purdy or (if he has a setback) Josh Johnson, I'm wondering if we'll see more than 20 completions, with no more than 15 going to players not named CMC. Brandon Aiyuk seems as risky as ever. Yeah, he scored last week . . . on three targets in a losing effort with Deebo ailing. This is a different team without Jimmy G. And although I can't justify benching George Kittle, he's been unstartable in four of five games. His receptions and yards per game are at their lowest levels since his 2017 rookie campaign. Kittle is officially TD-dependent from my perspective.
Elsewhere, Jauan Jennings is a deep-league dart throw, though at least he's starting. I'm guessing somewhere around 3-35. The 2021 seventh-round pick was the second-slowest wideout at that year's NFL combine (out of 45 receivers). He also has an unconscionable 10 drops on 81 career targets. So you see where I'm going with this. If you want a higher-upside boom-bust flier, I'd go with rookie Danny Gray, who's coming off a career-high target share in Week 14. That should continue to push upward with Deebo out.
For Seattle, yeah, their opponents have the best run defense by most metrics, and their pass defense is arguably terrific. Starting on the ground, I can't fathom benching Kenneth Walker. Yeah, he might end up with an 18-67 rushing line with two catches for nine yards. But you're hoping for a score. Due to injury, he's fairly well rested for this one. I like him cracking nine points, and for me, that's usually enough to start an RB unless you're sitting on two other near-automatic top-20 options. Because as we saw last week wit Josh Jacobs, a touchdown can mean the difference between barely statartable and must-start.
Through the air, consider who San Francisco's played: the Chiefs, Dolphins, Seahawks, Bears, Broncos, Rams (twice), Panthers, Falcons, Saints, Chargers (no Keenan Allen or Mike Williams), Cardinals (no Kyler Murray, Marquise Brown, or Rondale Moore), and Buccaneers (no offensive line, fifth-fewest points per game). Aside from Kansas City and Miami, which of those other passing attacks would have struck fear in the Niners' secondary--or most NFL secondaries? Maybe Tampa Bay? Barely?
Lost in the stats is the context of a pass defense that's about to face (probably) its third-toughest passing offense of the season--significantly better than the one they beat in Week 2, despite the mostly same personnel. I expect Smith, D.K. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett to all be startable in deep leagues. 16+ points seems reasonable for Smith in a must-win game. Metcalf and Lockett are good bets for 10+ points each; as always, a score is the key, and we can never fully predict touchdowns. But 5-50+ or both seem reasonable.
I'm picking the Niners in this one 24-22. One of the better Thursday Night Football games of the year, and a reminder that divisional battles between playoff contenders are must-see TV.
Leave your final-score prediction below, as well as any push-back, questions, or what you need to happen tonight. And good luck.