Three big games today. I feel strongly about the likely game script in the first, mostly clueless about the second, and near certain about the third. And as always, looking forward to your opinions, particularly if you thoughtfully disagree.
In the first contest, I've got the Vikings beating the Colts by 5+ points. They're currently favored by 3.5. I think that's a bit generous for Indy. Do not be surprised if this is Matt Ryan's final NFL start. And don't be surprised if head coach Jeff Saturday pulls him after committing yet another turnover.
Desperate fantasy managers might feel compelled to start Ryan against a beatable Minnesota pass defense. And who knows: maybe today's the day *vintage* Ryan returns. But he leads the league in interceptions and has the highest sack rate of his career. His 13:13 TD-INT ratio is also the worst of his career. His second worst? 16:11 as a rookie in 2008.
Jonathan Taylor faces one of the toughest run D's. He and Dalvin Cook are likely top-24 RBs, but are not-so-likely top-12 RBs. Volume should carry them to adequacy. Between the two, I prefer Cook for higher TD potential.
Through the air, take your pick between Michael Pittman, Parris Campbell, and Alec Pierce. Would we be surprised if any of them led Indy in receiving yards? Of course, Pittman remains the best play. And . . . all three have uncomfortably low floors of about 6-8 points. For Minnesota, Justin Jefferson is obviously automatic, and T.J. Hockenson remains a solid top 8-12 TE option with some TD pop. Adam Thielen is the boom-bust wild card, as usual.
In the next game, I'm struggling to figure out the most likely outcome, but am taking the Browns -2.5 over the Ravens based on necessity. In other words, Cleveland can't afford to lose. Nick Chubb is in a similar boat as Cook and Taylor: a relatively slumping elite RB in a tough matchup. I'm actually big on Amari Cooper, believing he'll step up against one of the league's most porous pass defenses. Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku are great fliers, of course. And Deshaun Watson should have his best game so far.
For Baltimore, I'd be shocked if the two biggest scorers aren't J.K. Dobbins and Mark Andrews. Trusting that Dobbins will continue earning targets, which should put him in the top 20 regardless of whether he scores. And here's a stat that might make you cringe if you drafted Andrews in the second or third round: he has a 19-216-0 receiving line in his last six games. The Titans' Chigo Okonkwo has a 16-268-1 line during the same stretch, despite playing well below 50% of Tennessee's offensive snaps.
Yikes.
But I'm all in on Andrews bouncing back. It remains confusing to me that Demarcus Robinson can go from being the No. 5 receiving option in Kansas City, to being cut by Las Vegas, to being the No. 1 wideout in Baltimore. The law of fantasy averages suggests Robinson's surprisingly good run will take a backseat today to a rebounding Andrews.
And in the nightcap, the Bills are seven-point favorites over the Dolphins. I think it should be 11+, and not just because 7/11 has a nice ring to it. There could be several inches of snow--perhaps as much as eight inches by the opening kickoff. Buffalo has beaten Miami in nine of their last 10 home games. They're also trying to avenge an early-season loss to these same Dolphins.
The weather and momentum favor the Bills. I've got Devin Singletary and James Cook combining for 23+ fantasy points, making both must-starts in most leagues. Normally, I wouldn't be that bullish. But the threat of Josh Allen running on any given play should keep Miami's defense off balanace enough to open lanes, and potentially slippery conditions should favor the Bills' ground game.
I'm not at all excited about Raheem Mostert, though I recognize some of you might not have a better option. Still, in a likely negative game script and harsh field conditions, he's a huge risk. The same goes for Tua. In fact, the only receivers I'd start in this one are Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs . . . because you almost have to given their mammoth ceilings. But temper expectations, and if the game looks like it'll be an absolute mess a half hour before kickoff, if you have enough WR depth, you might just bench those guys too. It really depends if this looks like a repeat of last year's Bills-Patriots game (when Mac Jones attempted three passes), or if there will be some semblance of a balanced attack.
Good luck today.
In the first contest, I've got the Vikings beating the Colts by 5+ points. They're currently favored by 3.5. I think that's a bit generous for Indy. Do not be surprised if this is Matt Ryan's final NFL start. And don't be surprised if head coach Jeff Saturday pulls him after committing yet another turnover.
Desperate fantasy managers might feel compelled to start Ryan against a beatable Minnesota pass defense. And who knows: maybe today's the day *vintage* Ryan returns. But he leads the league in interceptions and has the highest sack rate of his career. His 13:13 TD-INT ratio is also the worst of his career. His second worst? 16:11 as a rookie in 2008.
Jonathan Taylor faces one of the toughest run D's. He and Dalvin Cook are likely top-24 RBs, but are not-so-likely top-12 RBs. Volume should carry them to adequacy. Between the two, I prefer Cook for higher TD potential.
Through the air, take your pick between Michael Pittman, Parris Campbell, and Alec Pierce. Would we be surprised if any of them led Indy in receiving yards? Of course, Pittman remains the best play. And . . . all three have uncomfortably low floors of about 6-8 points. For Minnesota, Justin Jefferson is obviously automatic, and T.J. Hockenson remains a solid top 8-12 TE option with some TD pop. Adam Thielen is the boom-bust wild card, as usual.
In the next game, I'm struggling to figure out the most likely outcome, but am taking the Browns -2.5 over the Ravens based on necessity. In other words, Cleveland can't afford to lose. Nick Chubb is in a similar boat as Cook and Taylor: a relatively slumping elite RB in a tough matchup. I'm actually big on Amari Cooper, believing he'll step up against one of the league's most porous pass defenses. Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku are great fliers, of course. And Deshaun Watson should have his best game so far.
For Baltimore, I'd be shocked if the two biggest scorers aren't J.K. Dobbins and Mark Andrews. Trusting that Dobbins will continue earning targets, which should put him in the top 20 regardless of whether he scores. And here's a stat that might make you cringe if you drafted Andrews in the second or third round: he has a 19-216-0 receiving line in his last six games. The Titans' Chigo Okonkwo has a 16-268-1 line during the same stretch, despite playing well below 50% of Tennessee's offensive snaps.
Yikes.
But I'm all in on Andrews bouncing back. It remains confusing to me that Demarcus Robinson can go from being the No. 5 receiving option in Kansas City, to being cut by Las Vegas, to being the No. 1 wideout in Baltimore. The law of fantasy averages suggests Robinson's surprisingly good run will take a backseat today to a rebounding Andrews.
And in the nightcap, the Bills are seven-point favorites over the Dolphins. I think it should be 11+, and not just because 7/11 has a nice ring to it. There could be several inches of snow--perhaps as much as eight inches by the opening kickoff. Buffalo has beaten Miami in nine of their last 10 home games. They're also trying to avenge an early-season loss to these same Dolphins.
The weather and momentum favor the Bills. I've got Devin Singletary and James Cook combining for 23+ fantasy points, making both must-starts in most leagues. Normally, I wouldn't be that bullish. But the threat of Josh Allen running on any given play should keep Miami's defense off balanace enough to open lanes, and potentially slippery conditions should favor the Bills' ground game.
I'm not at all excited about Raheem Mostert, though I recognize some of you might not have a better option. Still, in a likely negative game script and harsh field conditions, he's a huge risk. The same goes for Tua. In fact, the only receivers I'd start in this one are Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs . . . because you almost have to given their mammoth ceilings. But temper expectations, and if the game looks like it'll be an absolute mess a half hour before kickoff, if you have enough WR depth, you might just bench those guys too. It really depends if this looks like a repeat of last year's Bills-Patriots game (when Mac Jones attempted three passes), or if there will be some semblance of a balanced attack.
Good luck today.