My favorite stat I dug up while researching tonight's game: Of the last 110 throws to Raiders WRs, 100 have targeted Davante Adams or Mack Hollins. This is an insanely top-heavy offense, and that's an appropriate segue into an analysis of the most intriguing Rams vs. Raiders fantasy angles.
For Vegas, Adams of course is a no-brainer. He's on a realistic trajectory for the greatest WR season in history--a 17-game projection of 1,666 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns on only 6.6 receptions per game. For context, Cooper Kupp needed 8.5 receptions per game to hit 1,947-16 last season.
Also interesting: Adams has 85 career TDs. 84% of his first 76 TDs came inside the 25-yard line. But *none* of his last nine TDs have come inside the 25. Whether because of offensive decision making or defensive scheming or both, Adams is doing most of his damage when the Raiders are well outside the red zone. He's still #3 in red-zone targets, just like he was last year--but with only three red-zone scores, versus nine last year.
Imagine how statistically dominant he would be if he converted more red-zone scoring opportunities. Boggles the mind.
If you need a streaming flex player, I'm also bullish about Hollins. Nine targets last week. He's not going anywhere. If you can stomach the risk of starting a streamer on Thursday, I'd go for it.
Now for some tough talk: I'm bearish about Josh Jacobs. I've brought this up before: Sunday-to-Thursday RB regressions are a real thing. Jacobs is on pace for over 400 touches this year, and he's coming off a 28-touch effort four days ago. He's also banged up and presumably won't be close to 100% tonight. The 5-7 Raiders don't have a choice. This is a must-win game to keep their playoff hopes alive.
But since 2013, Sunday-Thursday RBs who hit 25+ touches on Sunday averaged a 30% drop in touches on Thursday, equating to a 27% reduction in fantasy points. Jacobs will face a tough run defense on the road. I don't want to sound overly alarmist, but I'd be shocked if he exceeds 14 fantasy points. My best estimate is 9-12 points, assuming he doesn't reach the end zone. Not a popular call. But that's how I see it.
For the Rams, I'm not sold on Cam Akers, and regardless, the Raiders are actually pretty good against the run. If you started Akers last week, you might not have a better option this week. Hopefully he'll continue to dominate backfield touches. But who knows. They're 3-9. They could give Kyren Williams more run. It's also concerning that Akers isn't getting passing-game work. There's a little too much TD-dependency for me.
And at QB, will we see Baker Mayfield. As of late Wednesday night, it's unclear who will start. John Wolford makes the most sense, with Baker maybe subbing in during the second half, not unlike a preseason game. I actually prefer seeing more Bryce Perkins, whose versatility could help this offense more than Wolford or the guy who just lost his starting job to P.J. Walker, and then Sam Darnold.
For receivers, I don't know what's up with Tyler Higbee, unless he's playing more of a blocking role with an inexperienced QB. That would make sense. Still, this looked like a golden opportunity for Higbee to become a weekly must-start TE.
At wideout, I'd lean into Van Jefferson as a top-36 flier against one of the NFL's worst pass defenses. And for the very desperate, I like Tutu Atwell continuing to show off his speed. If anyone's scoring an 80-TD tonight, my money's on Atwell.
Final score prediction: 27-24 Raiders. Looking forward to seeing your predictions and reading your comments--including, as always, anything you strongly disagree with. Be heard!
For Vegas, Adams of course is a no-brainer. He's on a realistic trajectory for the greatest WR season in history--a 17-game projection of 1,666 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns on only 6.6 receptions per game. For context, Cooper Kupp needed 8.5 receptions per game to hit 1,947-16 last season.
Also interesting: Adams has 85 career TDs. 84% of his first 76 TDs came inside the 25-yard line. But *none* of his last nine TDs have come inside the 25. Whether because of offensive decision making or defensive scheming or both, Adams is doing most of his damage when the Raiders are well outside the red zone. He's still #3 in red-zone targets, just like he was last year--but with only three red-zone scores, versus nine last year.
Imagine how statistically dominant he would be if he converted more red-zone scoring opportunities. Boggles the mind.
If you need a streaming flex player, I'm also bullish about Hollins. Nine targets last week. He's not going anywhere. If you can stomach the risk of starting a streamer on Thursday, I'd go for it.
Now for some tough talk: I'm bearish about Josh Jacobs. I've brought this up before: Sunday-to-Thursday RB regressions are a real thing. Jacobs is on pace for over 400 touches this year, and he's coming off a 28-touch effort four days ago. He's also banged up and presumably won't be close to 100% tonight. The 5-7 Raiders don't have a choice. This is a must-win game to keep their playoff hopes alive.
But since 2013, Sunday-Thursday RBs who hit 25+ touches on Sunday averaged a 30% drop in touches on Thursday, equating to a 27% reduction in fantasy points. Jacobs will face a tough run defense on the road. I don't want to sound overly alarmist, but I'd be shocked if he exceeds 14 fantasy points. My best estimate is 9-12 points, assuming he doesn't reach the end zone. Not a popular call. But that's how I see it.
For the Rams, I'm not sold on Cam Akers, and regardless, the Raiders are actually pretty good against the run. If you started Akers last week, you might not have a better option this week. Hopefully he'll continue to dominate backfield touches. But who knows. They're 3-9. They could give Kyren Williams more run. It's also concerning that Akers isn't getting passing-game work. There's a little too much TD-dependency for me.
And at QB, will we see Baker Mayfield. As of late Wednesday night, it's unclear who will start. John Wolford makes the most sense, with Baker maybe subbing in during the second half, not unlike a preseason game. I actually prefer seeing more Bryce Perkins, whose versatility could help this offense more than Wolford or the guy who just lost his starting job to P.J. Walker, and then Sam Darnold.
For receivers, I don't know what's up with Tyler Higbee, unless he's playing more of a blocking role with an inexperienced QB. That would make sense. Still, this looked like a golden opportunity for Higbee to become a weekly must-start TE.
At wideout, I'd lean into Van Jefferson as a top-36 flier against one of the NFL's worst pass defenses. And for the very desperate, I like Tutu Atwell continuing to show off his speed. If anyone's scoring an 80-TD tonight, my money's on Atwell.
Final score prediction: 27-24 Raiders. Looking forward to seeing your predictions and reading your comments--including, as always, anything you strongly disagree with. Be heard!