One more day 'til the biggest day of the fantasy season (for many of you). Good luck as you make final decisions. As with the past couple weeks, here's a brief breakdown of how I think each game will go. I write about these games for PFN, highlighting which teams I think will win and cover the spread (and why). Somehow I'm 23-8 on point spreads the last weeks, and also 25-5-1 picking the winners.
There's no way I can keep that up. But I'll keep trying, and if nothing else, it helps me uncover what I *think* are likely fantasy outcomes for each game. As we saw Thursday, sometimes those predictions blow up in my face (Josh Jacobs). And hopefully, more often than not, the games play out (and the players produce) somewhat as expected.
Bills (-10) vs. Jets -- As always, I'll call it like I see it. In this case, I've got Buffalo demolishing New York. Wrote a piece for PFN earlier this week predicting the Jets and Patriots would miss the playoffs (with the Chargers sneaking in). I'm not convinced Mike White and Zonovan Knight can do much on the road against the Bills. Presumably low-scoring, with James Cook as the x-factor in an offense that might see the field for 37-38 game minutes.
Bengals (-5.5) vs. Browns -- Since the summer, I've stated unequivocally that Deshaun Watson was a longhot to finish this season as the starter, because Cleveland had almost no shot at making the postseason--and the Browns had no incentive to risk a serious, meaningless injury to their $250 million investment. Also, the Bengals should dramatically avenge their earlier defeat in Cleveland. Predicting 380+ yards for Joe Burrow and 160+ for Ja'Marr Chase.
Cowboys (-17) vs. Texans -- Another home favorite I'm banking on. Houston will be without their top two receivers. If you're in a very deep league and are forced to start a TD-dependent, mostly catch-averse RB like Gus Edwards, I'd suggest going all in on Malik Davis, assuming Dallas coasts to an easy win while Davis enjoys 1+ quarters of mop-up duty.
Vikings (+2) at Lions -- A tough one to predict. Should be high-scoring. Pushed De'Andre Swift the past couple weeks, and clearly he's re-emerging as a must-start option. Jameson Williams? Too soon to trust. But there should be plenty of offense, and I like Adam Thielen bouncing back in a Minnesota victory.
Jaguars (+3.5) at Titans -- A shameless hedge with Trevor Lawrence questionable. I like Tennessee winning, as Derrick Henry once again carries them. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine looks like a solid desperation dart throw with Treylon Burks out. And beware of the Titans' tough run defense. While Travis Etienne is a must-start, I think the Jags will have to focus on Tennessee's vulnerable secondary.
Eagles (-7.5) vs. Giants -- The line for this one could shift to 12 points or more if Saquon Barkley's (neck) declared out. Gary Brightwell would have a higher ceiling than Matt Breida if that happens. Either way, Philadelphia should cover the spread in a comfortable win, as New York comes to grips with the strong probability that their mostly one-dimensional offense wasn't enough.
Steelers (-2) vs. Ravens -- For the fourth or fifth time, I'm a big believer in Kenny Pickett's dynasty value. Pittsburgh should win by 5+. Aside from Mark Andrews and *maybe* Kenyan Drake in deeper PPR leagues, I don't trust any Ravens. The 5-7 Steelers have played strong defense in three of their last four games, and their final five matchups are all winnable.
Chiefs (-9) vs. Broncos -- What is this? Seriously, and no offense to the Broncos. But honestly, what kind of team do they have? Greg Dulcich is a great top-14 TE this week. I guess Jerry Jeudy's startable. But does anyone expect Denver to keep this one within two touchdowns? Can their defense possibly slow down the Chiefs? I'd start Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce with confidence, as usual. And the Broncos have to find a new QB at some point.
49ers (-3.5) vs. Buccaneers -- Tampa Bay needed late-game heroics to lurch past the lowly Saints at home. Now on the road against one of the best defenses, their only realistic hope is that Brock Purdy throws away the game. I'm big on CMC and Deebo in this one, believing Purdy will lean on both heavily. For the Bucs, keep tabs on Leonard Fournette's injury; if he plays, Rachaad White would be no better than a fringe starter.
Seahawks (-3.5) vs. Panthers -- I think the line setters have an outsized view of Sam Darnold. Seattle should prevail by double digits. The biggest question is who will start in the Seahawks' backfield. Kenneth Walker and DeeJay Dallas are questionable. Travis Homer clearly is a great pick-up. In my league, Robbie Lange wisely added him Wednesday.
Chargers (+3.5) vs. Dolphins -- In seven of eight competitive games this year (where the Dolphins and their opponents played each other close), Jaylen Waddle produced like a must-start WR. But in blowouts, he's lagged. I expect this game to be close and high-scoring. Waddle reportedly is good to go. That's good enough for me. Oh, and so is Mike Williams. Honestly, I trust Waddle more. But this game will have plenty of fantasy heroes.
There's no way I can keep that up. But I'll keep trying, and if nothing else, it helps me uncover what I *think* are likely fantasy outcomes for each game. As we saw Thursday, sometimes those predictions blow up in my face (Josh Jacobs). And hopefully, more often than not, the games play out (and the players produce) somewhat as expected.
Bills (-10) vs. Jets -- As always, I'll call it like I see it. In this case, I've got Buffalo demolishing New York. Wrote a piece for PFN earlier this week predicting the Jets and Patriots would miss the playoffs (with the Chargers sneaking in). I'm not convinced Mike White and Zonovan Knight can do much on the road against the Bills. Presumably low-scoring, with James Cook as the x-factor in an offense that might see the field for 37-38 game minutes.
Bengals (-5.5) vs. Browns -- Since the summer, I've stated unequivocally that Deshaun Watson was a longhot to finish this season as the starter, because Cleveland had almost no shot at making the postseason--and the Browns had no incentive to risk a serious, meaningless injury to their $250 million investment. Also, the Bengals should dramatically avenge their earlier defeat in Cleveland. Predicting 380+ yards for Joe Burrow and 160+ for Ja'Marr Chase.
Cowboys (-17) vs. Texans -- Another home favorite I'm banking on. Houston will be without their top two receivers. If you're in a very deep league and are forced to start a TD-dependent, mostly catch-averse RB like Gus Edwards, I'd suggest going all in on Malik Davis, assuming Dallas coasts to an easy win while Davis enjoys 1+ quarters of mop-up duty.
Vikings (+2) at Lions -- A tough one to predict. Should be high-scoring. Pushed De'Andre Swift the past couple weeks, and clearly he's re-emerging as a must-start option. Jameson Williams? Too soon to trust. But there should be plenty of offense, and I like Adam Thielen bouncing back in a Minnesota victory.
Jaguars (+3.5) at Titans -- A shameless hedge with Trevor Lawrence questionable. I like Tennessee winning, as Derrick Henry once again carries them. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine looks like a solid desperation dart throw with Treylon Burks out. And beware of the Titans' tough run defense. While Travis Etienne is a must-start, I think the Jags will have to focus on Tennessee's vulnerable secondary.
Eagles (-7.5) vs. Giants -- The line for this one could shift to 12 points or more if Saquon Barkley's (neck) declared out. Gary Brightwell would have a higher ceiling than Matt Breida if that happens. Either way, Philadelphia should cover the spread in a comfortable win, as New York comes to grips with the strong probability that their mostly one-dimensional offense wasn't enough.
Steelers (-2) vs. Ravens -- For the fourth or fifth time, I'm a big believer in Kenny Pickett's dynasty value. Pittsburgh should win by 5+. Aside from Mark Andrews and *maybe* Kenyan Drake in deeper PPR leagues, I don't trust any Ravens. The 5-7 Steelers have played strong defense in three of their last four games, and their final five matchups are all winnable.
Chiefs (-9) vs. Broncos -- What is this? Seriously, and no offense to the Broncos. But honestly, what kind of team do they have? Greg Dulcich is a great top-14 TE this week. I guess Jerry Jeudy's startable. But does anyone expect Denver to keep this one within two touchdowns? Can their defense possibly slow down the Chiefs? I'd start Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce with confidence, as usual. And the Broncos have to find a new QB at some point.
49ers (-3.5) vs. Buccaneers -- Tampa Bay needed late-game heroics to lurch past the lowly Saints at home. Now on the road against one of the best defenses, their only realistic hope is that Brock Purdy throws away the game. I'm big on CMC and Deebo in this one, believing Purdy will lean on both heavily. For the Bucs, keep tabs on Leonard Fournette's injury; if he plays, Rachaad White would be no better than a fringe starter.
Seahawks (-3.5) vs. Panthers -- I think the line setters have an outsized view of Sam Darnold. Seattle should prevail by double digits. The biggest question is who will start in the Seahawks' backfield. Kenneth Walker and DeeJay Dallas are questionable. Travis Homer clearly is a great pick-up. In my league, Robbie Lange wisely added him Wednesday.
Chargers (+3.5) vs. Dolphins -- In seven of eight competitive games this year (where the Dolphins and their opponents played each other close), Jaylen Waddle produced like a must-start WR. But in blowouts, he's lagged. I expect this game to be close and high-scoring. Waddle reportedly is good to go. That's good enough for me. Oh, and so is Mike Williams. Honestly, I trust Waddle more. But this game will have plenty of fantasy heroes.