I analyzed tonight's game for PFN all day yesterday. Poured over stats, angles, etc. Here are eight things to consider, and how they might impact various players' fantasy outlooks.
First, this marks the fourth time these teams have met in less than a calendar year. They know each other. The Pats took the first game in that famous snowstorm, where Mac Jones attempted only three passes. Buffalo took the next two, including a dominant playoff win. I expect Bill Belichick to produce some surprises--things the Bills haven't planned for. Might mean Kendrick Bourne taking a lateral and then going deep to DeVante Parker. Or it might mean getting Tyquan Thornton (blazing 4.28 40-yard speed) more involved.
Second, Rhamondre Stevenson seems "safe." On the downside, he's averaged only 3.7 YPC since Week 6. He's never had this many touches in a season--in the pros or in college. That said, he'll probably get all he can handle, and his high target share should put him in double-digits, even if he doesn't find the end zone.
Third, Jakobi Meyers is questionable. Even if he plays, who knows how he'll be used, or whether he'll be effective. Bills all-world CB Tre'Davious White should get more work than last week in his return from last year's season-ending injury. He's an x-factor for a secondary that's still good on paper, but not anywhere close to last season's elite level.
Fourth, the Patriots have surrendered only two TDs to opposing RBs. That's the best in the league. Devin Singletary seems very risky to me, especially not knowing if/how he'll be used in the passing game. I'd put his realistic floor at around six points.
Fifth, the Patriots have surrendered eight TDs to opposing TEs on 50 receptions. That's one TD every 6.25 receptions. That's the *worst* in the league. In DFS competitions, I'm all in on Dawson Knox. In fantasy, I understand the risks, especially for a Thursday night game where you might have a safer Sunday option ready to go. Look, Knox isn't safe. But if you need a high-ceiling TE, his historical prowess inside the opposing 25-yard line (15 career TDs on 134 receptions) shouldn't be ignored.
Sixth (I went down a research wormhole found this completely fascinating), on Thanksgiving, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen each had nine receptions. This marked the first time since Week 3 that anyone--RB, WR, or TE--had more than six catches against the Patriots. I strongly believe that Gabe Davis needs to score to be worth starting in most leagues. The same goes for Week 12 hero Isaiah McKenzie. Stefon Diggs probably can hit 11+ points regardless.
Seventh, a slight contradiction to the previous point. Because New England is so good against RBs, especially near the goal line, I'm betting that any Bills TDs will come through the air, or else on a Josh Allen run. So if you believe (as I do) that Buffalo should get at least two scores, then the odds of Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, and/or Knox of getting at least one is, at minimum, decent. Diggs, of course, has the best odds as he looks for his 10th touchdown.
Eighth, the Bills have one of the stingiest defenses against kickers. But some of that is due to the simple fact that many teams have played from behind against Buffalo, and some have been blown out--where going for it on 4th-and-5 from the Bills' 20-yard line makes more sense than trying to narrow a 20+ point deficit by three points. Nick Folk has hit 4+ field goals in three of his last four games. While Tyler Bass is a weekly must-start, Folk seems like a fantastic streamer.
I'm picking Buffalo win this one 23-16. As always, leave your prediction below, and good (or rather, "great") luck tonight.
First, this marks the fourth time these teams have met in less than a calendar year. They know each other. The Pats took the first game in that famous snowstorm, where Mac Jones attempted only three passes. Buffalo took the next two, including a dominant playoff win. I expect Bill Belichick to produce some surprises--things the Bills haven't planned for. Might mean Kendrick Bourne taking a lateral and then going deep to DeVante Parker. Or it might mean getting Tyquan Thornton (blazing 4.28 40-yard speed) more involved.
Second, Rhamondre Stevenson seems "safe." On the downside, he's averaged only 3.7 YPC since Week 6. He's never had this many touches in a season--in the pros or in college. That said, he'll probably get all he can handle, and his high target share should put him in double-digits, even if he doesn't find the end zone.
Third, Jakobi Meyers is questionable. Even if he plays, who knows how he'll be used, or whether he'll be effective. Bills all-world CB Tre'Davious White should get more work than last week in his return from last year's season-ending injury. He's an x-factor for a secondary that's still good on paper, but not anywhere close to last season's elite level.
Fourth, the Patriots have surrendered only two TDs to opposing RBs. That's the best in the league. Devin Singletary seems very risky to me, especially not knowing if/how he'll be used in the passing game. I'd put his realistic floor at around six points.
Fifth, the Patriots have surrendered eight TDs to opposing TEs on 50 receptions. That's one TD every 6.25 receptions. That's the *worst* in the league. In DFS competitions, I'm all in on Dawson Knox. In fantasy, I understand the risks, especially for a Thursday night game where you might have a safer Sunday option ready to go. Look, Knox isn't safe. But if you need a high-ceiling TE, his historical prowess inside the opposing 25-yard line (15 career TDs on 134 receptions) shouldn't be ignored.
Sixth (I went down a research wormhole found this completely fascinating), on Thanksgiving, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen each had nine receptions. This marked the first time since Week 3 that anyone--RB, WR, or TE--had more than six catches against the Patriots. I strongly believe that Gabe Davis needs to score to be worth starting in most leagues. The same goes for Week 12 hero Isaiah McKenzie. Stefon Diggs probably can hit 11+ points regardless.
Seventh, a slight contradiction to the previous point. Because New England is so good against RBs, especially near the goal line, I'm betting that any Bills TDs will come through the air, or else on a Josh Allen run. So if you believe (as I do) that Buffalo should get at least two scores, then the odds of Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, and/or Knox of getting at least one is, at minimum, decent. Diggs, of course, has the best odds as he looks for his 10th touchdown.
Eighth, the Bills have one of the stingiest defenses against kickers. But some of that is due to the simple fact that many teams have played from behind against Buffalo, and some have been blown out--where going for it on 4th-and-5 from the Bills' 20-yard line makes more sense than trying to narrow a 20+ point deficit by three points. Nick Folk has hit 4+ field goals in three of his last four games. While Tyler Bass is a weekly must-start, Folk seems like a fantastic streamer.
I'm picking Buffalo win this one 23-16. As always, leave your prediction below, and good (or rather, "great") luck tonight.