We're almost to tomorrow. Huge, huge week for many/most of you. Now that we're into December, the here-and-now might be more important than "future fantasy implications." So here's a brief breakdown of how I think each game will go. Nothing random here. I'm paid to study these matchups all week. Here's my best estimate at how they'll wind up (including current point spreads), with the main fantasy implications for each teaam.
Falcons (-1) vs. Steelers -- I've got Pittsburgh winning this one. Atlanta continues to play over their heads, and with Kyle Pitts out, I'm not convinced anyone in their backfield can make waves against one of the league's stingiest run defenses. And Najee Harris is expected to return--though it will be interesting to see how the flailing Steelers use him, knowing that their season is essentially over. Oh, and I believe George Pickens will go nuts.
Bears (+3.5) vs. Packers -- Taking Chicago to win outright on the assumption Justin Fields will return. And if he's returning, he should be rarin' to go, since the Bears have virtually nothing to play for except pride. Green Bay should score 26+ against Chicago's porous D, so fire up all the usual Packers. But Fields & company should do just enough to prevail.
Lions (-1) vs. Jaguars -- Nothing much to discuss here, since the guys you're thinking of starting probably should start: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, etc. Among other guys, Jamaal Williams remain fantastically TD-depedent, while Zay Jones might or might not flop. In general, I'm comfortable taking the home team to win, trusting Detroit's offense to go toe-to-toe.
Vikings (-3) vs. Jets -- I've got Minnesota winning this by 12+. No clue why the point spread is three. Mike White earned hype after posting impressive stats against a Bears D that can't pressure quarterbacks. White is one of the least mobile QBs in the game. The Vikings are better equipped to expose White and the rest of the Jets' offense. Final score prediction: 26-6.
Giants (+2.5) vs. Commanders -- Wrote a piece for PFN outlining why New York--despite having a better record--needs this win more than Washington. The proof is in their remaining schedule, where the Giants might not win another game. I'm banking on them giving Saquon Barkley 25+ touches and hoping their defense holds against the increasingly confident Commanders. Keep tabs on Antonio Gibson's status, as it could turn Brin Robinson into Barkley Jr., at least for one game.
Eagles (-4.5) vs. Titans -- It's essentially Derrick Henry vs. the likely impending NFC 1-seed. Tennessee's stout run defense makes me nervous about Miles Sanders, though I understand it's hard to envision benching him. I see Philly winning this one by 6+ points, mostly through the air.
Ravens (-9.5) vs. Broncos -- I looked up all the best dual-threat QBs in NFL history yesterday. With few exceptions, their last good/great season was at age 31 or younger. Russell Wilson is now 34. Is it all/mostly Nathaniel Hackett's fault? Or did Pete Carroll know exactly what he was doing? Denver is a broken team, and quite possibly a broken franchise still searching for an adequate replacement for Peyton Manning. I'm taking Baltimore to win by double digits. The Panthers just hung 23 points on Denver. Make it 28+ for the Ravens.
Texans (+7) vs. Browns -- Once again, I have strong personal feelings about Deshaun Watson. But this is a fantasy blog. His return after two years away should culminate in a comfortable Cleveland win. I expect Watson to exceed expectations, partly because of the quality of his opponent. All the usual Browns seem like must-starts. For the Texans, obviously even Dameon Pierce isn't trustworthy these days after collecting only 16 yards on 15 carries in his last two outings. I shared dynasty warnings about Pierce this summer based on 20 years of RB college data. Keep that in the back of your mind, and we'll revisit it later.
Rams (+7) vs. Seahawks -- If you're starting a Ram, I wish you well. Tutu Atwell remains one of my favorite 16-team-league dart throws. The backfield is a mess. Carry on. Oh, and Seattle should win by more than a touchdown, thanks largely to Kenneth Walker and some timely passing by Geno Smith. Not expecting fireworks. Maybe a 19-10 final score.
49ers (-4) vs. Dolphins -- I'm taking the Niners to cover. Tough call. Their defense is simply really good most weeks. The potential loss of Deebo Samuel should elevate Jauan Jennings to deep-league streaming status. The backfield? Who knows beyond CMC. And aside from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle--and perhaps Tua if you're in a 12+ team league--I don't know who else I can trust for Miami, especially assuming Raheem Mostert returns. Maybe Jeff Wilson tops out at 12 points on a great day.
Bengals (+2) vs. Chiefs -- I just wrote a piece runnning Sunday for PFN that breaks down different angles for this game. Cincinnati's pass D has been awful since they lost their #1 cornerback. They're also terrible at pressuring opposing QBs. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offensive line are terrific at minimizing pressure. It's a great combo if you have Chiefs players. Keep an eye on Jerick McKinnon's status; if he sits, Melvin Gordon or Ronald Jones could be a desperation flier. And I actually like Cincy prevailing, assuming Ja'Marr Chase returns, and assuming they manage the clock effectively with Samaje Perine and/or a potentially returning Joe Mixon. All doable for the getting-healthier Bengals.
Raiders (-1) vs. Chargers -- The Chargers were three-point favorites earlier this week. At that point, I picked Vegas to cover and win. With the line change, I'm still on the Raiders bus. Mack Hollins is a must-start in most leagues. Austin Ekeler could relistically rack up 200+ total yards. Both teams need to win. Vegas benefits because the Chargers' D is as bad or worse than the Raiders'.
Cowboys (-10.5) vs. Colts -- If you can envision Matt Ryan turning the ball over at least once and taking 3+ sacks, then you can understand why I'm all in on Dallas's DST this week. Indy's missing another lineman. Jonathan Taylor is officially a risky top-24 RB who could head to the bench early if this game gets out of hand. The Colts' only chance is if their strong defense steps up. But I'm not seeing it. Dallas by 20+.
Falcons (-1) vs. Steelers -- I've got Pittsburgh winning this one. Atlanta continues to play over their heads, and with Kyle Pitts out, I'm not convinced anyone in their backfield can make waves against one of the league's stingiest run defenses. And Najee Harris is expected to return--though it will be interesting to see how the flailing Steelers use him, knowing that their season is essentially over. Oh, and I believe George Pickens will go nuts.
Bears (+3.5) vs. Packers -- Taking Chicago to win outright on the assumption Justin Fields will return. And if he's returning, he should be rarin' to go, since the Bears have virtually nothing to play for except pride. Green Bay should score 26+ against Chicago's porous D, so fire up all the usual Packers. But Fields & company should do just enough to prevail.
Lions (-1) vs. Jaguars -- Nothing much to discuss here, since the guys you're thinking of starting probably should start: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, etc. Among other guys, Jamaal Williams remain fantastically TD-depedent, while Zay Jones might or might not flop. In general, I'm comfortable taking the home team to win, trusting Detroit's offense to go toe-to-toe.
Vikings (-3) vs. Jets -- I've got Minnesota winning this by 12+. No clue why the point spread is three. Mike White earned hype after posting impressive stats against a Bears D that can't pressure quarterbacks. White is one of the least mobile QBs in the game. The Vikings are better equipped to expose White and the rest of the Jets' offense. Final score prediction: 26-6.
Giants (+2.5) vs. Commanders -- Wrote a piece for PFN outlining why New York--despite having a better record--needs this win more than Washington. The proof is in their remaining schedule, where the Giants might not win another game. I'm banking on them giving Saquon Barkley 25+ touches and hoping their defense holds against the increasingly confident Commanders. Keep tabs on Antonio Gibson's status, as it could turn Brin Robinson into Barkley Jr., at least for one game.
Eagles (-4.5) vs. Titans -- It's essentially Derrick Henry vs. the likely impending NFC 1-seed. Tennessee's stout run defense makes me nervous about Miles Sanders, though I understand it's hard to envision benching him. I see Philly winning this one by 6+ points, mostly through the air.
Ravens (-9.5) vs. Broncos -- I looked up all the best dual-threat QBs in NFL history yesterday. With few exceptions, their last good/great season was at age 31 or younger. Russell Wilson is now 34. Is it all/mostly Nathaniel Hackett's fault? Or did Pete Carroll know exactly what he was doing? Denver is a broken team, and quite possibly a broken franchise still searching for an adequate replacement for Peyton Manning. I'm taking Baltimore to win by double digits. The Panthers just hung 23 points on Denver. Make it 28+ for the Ravens.
Texans (+7) vs. Browns -- Once again, I have strong personal feelings about Deshaun Watson. But this is a fantasy blog. His return after two years away should culminate in a comfortable Cleveland win. I expect Watson to exceed expectations, partly because of the quality of his opponent. All the usual Browns seem like must-starts. For the Texans, obviously even Dameon Pierce isn't trustworthy these days after collecting only 16 yards on 15 carries in his last two outings. I shared dynasty warnings about Pierce this summer based on 20 years of RB college data. Keep that in the back of your mind, and we'll revisit it later.
Rams (+7) vs. Seahawks -- If you're starting a Ram, I wish you well. Tutu Atwell remains one of my favorite 16-team-league dart throws. The backfield is a mess. Carry on. Oh, and Seattle should win by more than a touchdown, thanks largely to Kenneth Walker and some timely passing by Geno Smith. Not expecting fireworks. Maybe a 19-10 final score.
49ers (-4) vs. Dolphins -- I'm taking the Niners to cover. Tough call. Their defense is simply really good most weeks. The potential loss of Deebo Samuel should elevate Jauan Jennings to deep-league streaming status. The backfield? Who knows beyond CMC. And aside from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle--and perhaps Tua if you're in a 12+ team league--I don't know who else I can trust for Miami, especially assuming Raheem Mostert returns. Maybe Jeff Wilson tops out at 12 points on a great day.
Bengals (+2) vs. Chiefs -- I just wrote a piece runnning Sunday for PFN that breaks down different angles for this game. Cincinnati's pass D has been awful since they lost their #1 cornerback. They're also terrible at pressuring opposing QBs. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offensive line are terrific at minimizing pressure. It's a great combo if you have Chiefs players. Keep an eye on Jerick McKinnon's status; if he sits, Melvin Gordon or Ronald Jones could be a desperation flier. And I actually like Cincy prevailing, assuming Ja'Marr Chase returns, and assuming they manage the clock effectively with Samaje Perine and/or a potentially returning Joe Mixon. All doable for the getting-healthier Bengals.
Raiders (-1) vs. Chargers -- The Chargers were three-point favorites earlier this week. At that point, I picked Vegas to cover and win. With the line change, I'm still on the Raiders bus. Mack Hollins is a must-start in most leagues. Austin Ekeler could relistically rack up 200+ total yards. Both teams need to win. Vegas benefits because the Chargers' D is as bad or worse than the Raiders'.
Cowboys (-10.5) vs. Colts -- If you can envision Matt Ryan turning the ball over at least once and taking 3+ sacks, then you can understand why I'm all in on Dallas's DST this week. Indy's missing another lineman. Jonathan Taylor is officially a risky top-24 RB who could head to the bench early if this game gets out of hand. The Colts' only chance is if their strong defense steps up. But I'm not seeing it. Dallas by 20+.