There's a Week 15 fantasy angle to this, I promise . . .
There have been 12 ties in the NFL in the last 10 years, dating back to the start of the 2012 season. Amazingly, seven of those ties were between teams from the same division. Even more amazingly, six ties--50% of the total this past decade--were between teams that would meet again later that season.
On the one hand, this appears to be a statistical oddity. In the old 16-game format, there was a 3-in-16 chance (19%) of a team playing an opponent for the first of two times. So if we learned that the Vikings were going to tie a team next season, all else being equal, there would be a 19% chance that the tie would be in their first of two matchups against the Packers, Bears, or Lions.
Of the six intra-divisional ties these past 10 years, two occurred this season (more on that in a second). Of the other four, the home team won the rematch three times.
The two this season were the Texans-Colts (Week 1) and the Giants-Commanders (Week 13). Indy will get their home rematch in Week 18. Washington rematches New York this weekend.
My theory is that intra-divisional teams have more to lose by losing, especially when they're playoff contenders. For example, in 2016, the 4-1 Seahawks tied the 3-3 Cardinals. Arizona was 13-3 the year before. Seattle went to the Super Bowl (winning one) the two years before that. A Seahawks loss would have significantly threatened their standing atop the NFC West. A Cards loss would have pushed them three games back of first place.
I don't want to overstate it. Both teams really wanted to win--as much as any teams want to win any given week. And in this game specifically, both teams missed chip field goals in overtime that would have won the game. But twice in the fourth quarter, Arizona had 4th-and-short at the Seattle 39, and later at the Seattle 44. Both times they punted, playing it safe with field position rather than making a high-risk / high-reward move.
And that brings us to Sunday Night Football's Commanders-Giants rematch. Their recent tie kept both in playoff contention. The Giants could have gone for the win after stopping Washington on the opening drive in overtime. New York was 4th-and-2 at Washington's 45 and only 1:42 remaining in extra time. Rather than roll the dice on a win or a loss, the 7-4 squad essentially played not to lose and punted.
I bring all this up not just because they're playing again this weekend, and not just because of Washington's presumed home-field rematch advantage. I believe there's some psychology at play when intra-divisional playoff contenders face off for the first time, and it's something we might monitor in the coming seasons to see if this unexpected statistical trend continues.
In the meantime, this rematch has major fantasy implicaations. The Commanders just enjoyed their bye week. In their last game (against New York), Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson looked terrific on the ground, and the Giants had no answers for Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, or Jahan Dotson.
For the Giants, Richie James and Daniel Bellinger are banged up, while Saquon Barkley . . . well, it's plain to see. While he dominated against the Texans recently, in every other contest since Week 8 he's averaged only 2.8 yards per carry. He had only 6.8 fantasy points last weekend on 11 touches. Gary Brightwell, on the other hand, looked terrific. Saquon needs to score to be worthy of a start in the fantasy playoffs, and Washington's yielding the third-fewest RB rushing TDs (four) and the second-fewest RB receiving yards.
This has the feel of a season that's getting away from the Giants, who still have road games against Minnesota and Philadelphia. Sunday night, I'll be all in on the Commanders' key fantasy players, and honestly, I can't envision getting excited starting any Giants--even Saquon.
There have been 12 ties in the NFL in the last 10 years, dating back to the start of the 2012 season. Amazingly, seven of those ties were between teams from the same division. Even more amazingly, six ties--50% of the total this past decade--were between teams that would meet again later that season.
On the one hand, this appears to be a statistical oddity. In the old 16-game format, there was a 3-in-16 chance (19%) of a team playing an opponent for the first of two times. So if we learned that the Vikings were going to tie a team next season, all else being equal, there would be a 19% chance that the tie would be in their first of two matchups against the Packers, Bears, or Lions.
Of the six intra-divisional ties these past 10 years, two occurred this season (more on that in a second). Of the other four, the home team won the rematch three times.
The two this season were the Texans-Colts (Week 1) and the Giants-Commanders (Week 13). Indy will get their home rematch in Week 18. Washington rematches New York this weekend.
My theory is that intra-divisional teams have more to lose by losing, especially when they're playoff contenders. For example, in 2016, the 4-1 Seahawks tied the 3-3 Cardinals. Arizona was 13-3 the year before. Seattle went to the Super Bowl (winning one) the two years before that. A Seahawks loss would have significantly threatened their standing atop the NFC West. A Cards loss would have pushed them three games back of first place.
I don't want to overstate it. Both teams really wanted to win--as much as any teams want to win any given week. And in this game specifically, both teams missed chip field goals in overtime that would have won the game. But twice in the fourth quarter, Arizona had 4th-and-short at the Seattle 39, and later at the Seattle 44. Both times they punted, playing it safe with field position rather than making a high-risk / high-reward move.
And that brings us to Sunday Night Football's Commanders-Giants rematch. Their recent tie kept both in playoff contention. The Giants could have gone for the win after stopping Washington on the opening drive in overtime. New York was 4th-and-2 at Washington's 45 and only 1:42 remaining in extra time. Rather than roll the dice on a win or a loss, the 7-4 squad essentially played not to lose and punted.
I bring all this up not just because they're playing again this weekend, and not just because of Washington's presumed home-field rematch advantage. I believe there's some psychology at play when intra-divisional playoff contenders face off for the first time, and it's something we might monitor in the coming seasons to see if this unexpected statistical trend continues.
In the meantime, this rematch has major fantasy implicaations. The Commanders just enjoyed their bye week. In their last game (against New York), Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson looked terrific on the ground, and the Giants had no answers for Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, or Jahan Dotson.
For the Giants, Richie James and Daniel Bellinger are banged up, while Saquon Barkley . . . well, it's plain to see. While he dominated against the Texans recently, in every other contest since Week 8 he's averaged only 2.8 yards per carry. He had only 6.8 fantasy points last weekend on 11 touches. Gary Brightwell, on the other hand, looked terrific. Saquon needs to score to be worthy of a start in the fantasy playoffs, and Washington's yielding the third-fewest RB rushing TDs (four) and the second-fewest RB receiving yards.
This has the feel of a season that's getting away from the Giants, who still have road games against Minnesota and Philadelphia. Sunday night, I'll be all in on the Commanders' key fantasy players, and honestly, I can't envision getting excited starting any Giants--even Saquon.