A brief rundown of the major fantasy stories from yesterday's games, and then a preview of tonight's contest.
As always, wow. Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson, and Jimmy G. all knocked out of their games. Tua reportedly could have returned if needed. Jackson could miss Week 14, and perhaps even more time (we'll know more soon). And Jimmy's out for the rest of the season.
Mark Andrews is at risk of a production dip with Tyler Huntley at QB--though to be clear, in four Huntley starts last season, Andrews compiled receiving lines of 8-73-0, 10-136-2, 6-89-0, and 8-85-0. He did that while playing alongside Marquise Brown and Rashod Bateman. So don't freak out! It's not good news, and it's also not necessarily terrible news.
The worse news (much worse) concerns San Francisco's receiving corps in the wake of Jimmy G.'s season-ender. Brock Purdy--the last plyer taken in this year's draft--played as well or better than anyone could have reasonably imagined. But he leaned heavily on CMC (naturally), Miami's defense was on the field for more than 40 game minutes, and the Dolphins' D already had problems stopping the pass.
So I'm not putting a ton of stock in Purdy's debut. Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle all have downward arrows approaching the fantasy playoffs. Their next three games against the Bucs, Seahawks, and Commanders could prove tough through the air. Aside from CMC, no one is a must-start in any league.
Other notable injuries included Kenneth Walker and Treylon Burks. Both might return for their next game, so we'll stay tuned on that.
As for tonight's contest, the Bucs are favored by 3.5 points, and I think it should be more. Taking Tampa Bay to win and cover. As you might remember from Saturday, I ran through my picks for all the games, mirroring the picks I made for PFN. Went 11-3 aginst the spread and 12-1-1 picking the winners.
Gotta admit: that's not normal. Not even close. Full transparency: on the season I've picked the spread accurately 53% of the time and the winner 62%.
But back to tonight: if the Saints win, somehow they'll be only a half-game behind the Bucs in the NFC South. I can't see them keeping pace, despite Tampa Bay's frequent offensive and defensive struggles. Andy Dalton is a younger Matt Ryan. He's not elevating this offense, which relies almost entirely on Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave.
Meanwhile, assuming Russell Gage is active, Tom Brady will have his top four WRs healthy for only the third time all season. He alredy leads the league in pass attempts. The Saints' once vaunted defense will improve if Marshon Lattimore returns, but not enough to contain Tampa Bay's deep well of playmakers.
I'm picking the Bucs 26-16. If you have a prediction, share it below. And if your season hangs in the balance, let me know what you need to happen tonight so I can cheer you on.
As always, wow. Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson, and Jimmy G. all knocked out of their games. Tua reportedly could have returned if needed. Jackson could miss Week 14, and perhaps even more time (we'll know more soon). And Jimmy's out for the rest of the season.
Mark Andrews is at risk of a production dip with Tyler Huntley at QB--though to be clear, in four Huntley starts last season, Andrews compiled receiving lines of 8-73-0, 10-136-2, 6-89-0, and 8-85-0. He did that while playing alongside Marquise Brown and Rashod Bateman. So don't freak out! It's not good news, and it's also not necessarily terrible news.
The worse news (much worse) concerns San Francisco's receiving corps in the wake of Jimmy G.'s season-ender. Brock Purdy--the last plyer taken in this year's draft--played as well or better than anyone could have reasonably imagined. But he leaned heavily on CMC (naturally), Miami's defense was on the field for more than 40 game minutes, and the Dolphins' D already had problems stopping the pass.
So I'm not putting a ton of stock in Purdy's debut. Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle all have downward arrows approaching the fantasy playoffs. Their next three games against the Bucs, Seahawks, and Commanders could prove tough through the air. Aside from CMC, no one is a must-start in any league.
Other notable injuries included Kenneth Walker and Treylon Burks. Both might return for their next game, so we'll stay tuned on that.
As for tonight's contest, the Bucs are favored by 3.5 points, and I think it should be more. Taking Tampa Bay to win and cover. As you might remember from Saturday, I ran through my picks for all the games, mirroring the picks I made for PFN. Went 11-3 aginst the spread and 12-1-1 picking the winners.
Gotta admit: that's not normal. Not even close. Full transparency: on the season I've picked the spread accurately 53% of the time and the winner 62%.
But back to tonight: if the Saints win, somehow they'll be only a half-game behind the Bucs in the NFC South. I can't see them keeping pace, despite Tampa Bay's frequent offensive and defensive struggles. Andy Dalton is a younger Matt Ryan. He's not elevating this offense, which relies almost entirely on Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave.
Meanwhile, assuming Russell Gage is active, Tom Brady will have his top four WRs healthy for only the third time all season. He alredy leads the league in pass attempts. The Saints' once vaunted defense will improve if Marshon Lattimore returns, but not enough to contain Tampa Bay's deep well of playmakers.
I'm picking the Bucs 26-16. If you have a prediction, share it below. And if your season hangs in the balance, let me know what you need to happen tonight so I can cheer you on.