Entering last week, teams averaged 9.5 DST fantasy points per game against the Texans. Then the Browns DST hung 30 points on 'em, raising the average to 11.25 fantasy points per game. That's only 0.06 points behind the league-worst Colts.
I'm sure there have been higher averages. But going back several years, this season's Texans and Colts take the prize.
We know inherently that the best preseason DSTs sometimes flop, while previously undraftable DSTs become top-6 performers. The data backs it up. Since 2015, preseason (ADP) top-6 DSTs have averaged 123.3 fantasy points, while ADP 7-12 DSTs have averaged 125.1. Taking it a step further, ADP 1-12 DSTs have averaged only 14.5 more points than ADP 13-24 ADPs.
So if you draft a supposed top-12 DST, you're averaging less than one extra point per week compared to simply finding a good DST on waivers later in the season--or doing what many managers do: stream 'em.
What happened between the Browns and Texans last week raises a perennial question: how do we identify which DSTs will do best? I thought I had the right strategy this season, locking down the Bills in my draft and then trading for the Eagles with an eye toward streaming both through the year. But Buffalo's DST has finished in the top 8 in only three weeks, with the last coming in Week 5. And Philly has only two top-8 finishes in their last eight games.
Injuries haven't helped. But that's not the whole story. Each has only one DST touchdown. They're elite in forcing turnovers, while the Eagles are #2 in sacks. They're both top 7 in fewest points surrendered. But they trail 13 other teams in DST scores. The four highest-scoring DSTs have three or four TDs. If Buffalo had four, they'd be the DST3. If Philly had four, they'd be the DST2.
Earlier this year, I decided to stream the Raiders DST. They were, and still are, an awful option. Only the Bears have scored fewer DST points. And with a few minutes remaining, they'd given up 20 points while getting one sack and zero turnovers. They had on fantasy point. And then . . . an interception run back for a touchdown. Eight quick fantasy points, making them the 7th-best fantasy DST that week.
I streaamed them because they were playing the Texans. And I won that week by only 4.3 points. A "lesser" DST might have meant a loss.
DST is a tough nut to crack, and I'm guessing some or many of you agree. There's a randomness to massive production. Sunday marked the first time a DST's scored 30+ points in these past two seasons. During that time, RBs have hit 30+ points 48 times, QBs 69, and WRs 81. Even TEs have done it nine times.
The big DST breakouts *usually* require a touchdown or two . . . and in the Browns' case, three. Cleveland's DST is tied for 20th in sacks and 28th in interceptions. But they're tied for 2nd in TDs. Because they played one of the worst offenses in years. If we're playing the percentages on which DST to put in our lineup--whether it's the Cowboys (elite), Browns (middling) or Raiders (awful)--that seems like a good starting point, and more reliable than starting a great DST against a great offense.
I'm sure there have been higher averages. But going back several years, this season's Texans and Colts take the prize.
We know inherently that the best preseason DSTs sometimes flop, while previously undraftable DSTs become top-6 performers. The data backs it up. Since 2015, preseason (ADP) top-6 DSTs have averaged 123.3 fantasy points, while ADP 7-12 DSTs have averaged 125.1. Taking it a step further, ADP 1-12 DSTs have averaged only 14.5 more points than ADP 13-24 ADPs.
So if you draft a supposed top-12 DST, you're averaging less than one extra point per week compared to simply finding a good DST on waivers later in the season--or doing what many managers do: stream 'em.
What happened between the Browns and Texans last week raises a perennial question: how do we identify which DSTs will do best? I thought I had the right strategy this season, locking down the Bills in my draft and then trading for the Eagles with an eye toward streaming both through the year. But Buffalo's DST has finished in the top 8 in only three weeks, with the last coming in Week 5. And Philly has only two top-8 finishes in their last eight games.
Injuries haven't helped. But that's not the whole story. Each has only one DST touchdown. They're elite in forcing turnovers, while the Eagles are #2 in sacks. They're both top 7 in fewest points surrendered. But they trail 13 other teams in DST scores. The four highest-scoring DSTs have three or four TDs. If Buffalo had four, they'd be the DST3. If Philly had four, they'd be the DST2.
Earlier this year, I decided to stream the Raiders DST. They were, and still are, an awful option. Only the Bears have scored fewer DST points. And with a few minutes remaining, they'd given up 20 points while getting one sack and zero turnovers. They had on fantasy point. And then . . . an interception run back for a touchdown. Eight quick fantasy points, making them the 7th-best fantasy DST that week.
I streaamed them because they were playing the Texans. And I won that week by only 4.3 points. A "lesser" DST might have meant a loss.
DST is a tough nut to crack, and I'm guessing some or many of you agree. There's a randomness to massive production. Sunday marked the first time a DST's scored 30+ points in these past two seasons. During that time, RBs have hit 30+ points 48 times, QBs 69, and WRs 81. Even TEs have done it nine times.
The big DST breakouts *usually* require a touchdown or two . . . and in the Browns' case, three. Cleveland's DST is tied for 20th in sacks and 28th in interceptions. But they're tied for 2nd in TDs. Because they played one of the worst offenses in years. If we're playing the percentages on which DST to put in our lineup--whether it's the Cowboys (elite), Browns (middling) or Raiders (awful)--that seems like a good starting point, and more reliable than starting a great DST against a great offense.