What would we be saying about the Texans if their starting WRs heading into this season were healthy and, in Brandin Cooks' case, not disgruntled? A trio of Cooks, Nico Collins, and John Metchie might be rounding into form right now. Maybe they could have protected three of their earlier fourth-quarter leads, turning an 0-2-1 record in those contests into a 3-0 record. Maybe in that tie game against the Bears, they could have sustained one of their three fourth-quarter drives long enough to kick a game-winning field goal.
The might Eagles were yet another team to sweat out a victory over the now-depleted Texans, which ran Dameon Pierce on an incredible 27 of their 49 offensive plays. Only four of those carries came in the final 17 minutes. In a one-possession game--if Philly hadn't scored early in the final frame--Houston might have had the luxury to keep running Pierce. He could have topped 35 carries. The Eagles had no answers.
Of course, this was Philly's weakness coming in. They were giving up 5.2 yards per carry--the league's fourth-highest mark. Pierce averaged 5.1. It was only after they'd secured a lead large enough to force Davis Mills to throw, that Mills started making mistakes.
Honestly, I'm still not impressed with Mills, which isn't fair given his surrounding personnel (although Chris Moore and Phillip Dorsett played heroically). By my count, he made two great throws intermixed with a lot of badly placed balls. His second interception might have been a miscommunication, since his receiver kept running past it. Or maybe Mills woefully underthrew it.
Fantasy-wise, let's zoom in on Pierce for a moment. Back on August 26th, I wrote about him, saying (a) I was more bullish about him than his ADP, but (b) I didn't think the Texans would turn him loose. So I missed badly on part two. He's on pace for exactly 300 touches while averaging a healthy 4.5 YPC. He's far better than I expected in one of the league's most one-dimensional offenses.
I also shared research about the drafted RBs with his college workload in the past 20 years. Including Pierce, these 49 guys never reached 150+ touches in a college season, and no college season accounted for 45% or more of their total college touches. For example, Pierce had 374 total college touches, and his career-high was 123, accounting for only 33% of his total touches. I called this workload "Light-Balanced": relatively light collegiate workload, and relatively consistent across multiple years.
Historically, these RBs have falleb flat in the NFL. Those who've flashed have done so briefly, like Peyton Hills. Only rarely has someone from this group carved out a solid career (for example, Kenyan Drake).
For you dynasty folks, it's still something think about. Will Pierce be the exception to the rule? Or will his lack of college bell-cow usage catch up with him in Year 2 or Year 3, as it has for so many before him?
As for the Eagles, not much needs to be said. Jalen Hurts took four sacks for only the third time in his career. In those three games, he's collected eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. And Kenneth Gainwell earned seven touches while poaching a score; that matters for deep-leaguers looking for something--anything--from a non-starting RB. And it was Dallas Goedert's turn to crush it. Hurts looked his way early and often, taking what was offered. It's a great time to sell high on Goedert for top-6 TE value. He doesn't have the consistency of an elite TE, so you're selling at an ideal time.
And for the closest-score competition, we have three winners! Several of you were two points away from the final score. But these three were one better: Dennis Krauch (30-17), Larry Damron (28-17), and Adam Noslekim (28-17). Dennis, I haven't seen your name before, and apologies if you've commented. But great to see a new face. All three of you are first-time winners this season, so congrats on joining this exclusive club.
The might Eagles were yet another team to sweat out a victory over the now-depleted Texans, which ran Dameon Pierce on an incredible 27 of their 49 offensive plays. Only four of those carries came in the final 17 minutes. In a one-possession game--if Philly hadn't scored early in the final frame--Houston might have had the luxury to keep running Pierce. He could have topped 35 carries. The Eagles had no answers.
Of course, this was Philly's weakness coming in. They were giving up 5.2 yards per carry--the league's fourth-highest mark. Pierce averaged 5.1. It was only after they'd secured a lead large enough to force Davis Mills to throw, that Mills started making mistakes.
Honestly, I'm still not impressed with Mills, which isn't fair given his surrounding personnel (although Chris Moore and Phillip Dorsett played heroically). By my count, he made two great throws intermixed with a lot of badly placed balls. His second interception might have been a miscommunication, since his receiver kept running past it. Or maybe Mills woefully underthrew it.
Fantasy-wise, let's zoom in on Pierce for a moment. Back on August 26th, I wrote about him, saying (a) I was more bullish about him than his ADP, but (b) I didn't think the Texans would turn him loose. So I missed badly on part two. He's on pace for exactly 300 touches while averaging a healthy 4.5 YPC. He's far better than I expected in one of the league's most one-dimensional offenses.
I also shared research about the drafted RBs with his college workload in the past 20 years. Including Pierce, these 49 guys never reached 150+ touches in a college season, and no college season accounted for 45% or more of their total college touches. For example, Pierce had 374 total college touches, and his career-high was 123, accounting for only 33% of his total touches. I called this workload "Light-Balanced": relatively light collegiate workload, and relatively consistent across multiple years.
Historically, these RBs have falleb flat in the NFL. Those who've flashed have done so briefly, like Peyton Hills. Only rarely has someone from this group carved out a solid career (for example, Kenyan Drake).
For you dynasty folks, it's still something think about. Will Pierce be the exception to the rule? Or will his lack of college bell-cow usage catch up with him in Year 2 or Year 3, as it has for so many before him?
As for the Eagles, not much needs to be said. Jalen Hurts took four sacks for only the third time in his career. In those three games, he's collected eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. And Kenneth Gainwell earned seven touches while poaching a score; that matters for deep-leaguers looking for something--anything--from a non-starting RB. And it was Dallas Goedert's turn to crush it. Hurts looked his way early and often, taking what was offered. It's a great time to sell high on Goedert for top-6 TE value. He doesn't have the consistency of an elite TE, so you're selling at an ideal time.
And for the closest-score competition, we have three winners! Several of you were two points away from the final score. But these three were one better: Dennis Krauch (30-17), Larry Damron (28-17), and Adam Noslekim (28-17). Dennis, I haven't seen your name before, and apologies if you've commented. But great to see a new face. All three of you are first-time winners this season, so congrats on joining this exclusive club.