Tonight's matchup between the 7-0 Eagles and 1-5-1 Texans seems predictable. And because this is the NFL, would we honestly be surprised if Houston wins?
On the one hand, it seems almost impossible. If you have Jalen Hurts, of course you're starting him. Same for Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. In a blowout win, Kenneth Gainwell or Boston Scott could be a worthwhile flier if your best #2 RB is Chase Edmonds.
I wrote a PFN article publishing this morning that even makes the case for Quez Watkins. Philly reportedly received interest in Watkins before the trade deadline. My thinking is that teams like the Eagles understand seasons can fall apart if you don't have depth. A case could be made that Tampa Bay would have reached the Super Bowl if a rash of injuries hadn't wiped out several key starters--and if their backups had been capable of stepping up.
So in what could be a comfortable win, I believe Hurts will target Watkins (or Zach Pascal, but I lean toward Watkins) a bit more. Because this is the NFL, unfortunately the odds are pretty good that Watkins will be asked to step up later this season, even for one game.
That's the bullish Eagles scenario--a comprehensive dismantling of an opponent on national television. I'm still weighing whether to start the Eagles or Bills D/ST in my league, and as of early this morning, Philly remains in the lead. As from (maybe) Dameon Pierce, will any Texan hit 10+ fantasy points? The Eagles look primed to dominate on both sides of the ball.
And yet, there's another way of looking at this game. No team has walked over Houston this season. In fact, they've led in the fourth quarter in four separate contests. They were tied in the fourth in a fifth game. In their other two matchups, they were down as little as seven points in the fourth.
Seven games. Zero blowouts. Whether it's Brandin Cooks (assuming he plays) or Phillip Dorsett or even the slightly underappreciated Brevin Jordan, the Texans' passing attack might surprise us. Plus, Houston's RBs are the sixth-most targeted in the NFL. There's an opening here for chunk yards, especially if the Eagles are up 20+ in the fourth quarter. Last week Philly was up 22 on Pittsburgh in the fourth. On the Steelers' final meaningless drive, Jaylen Warren picked up 5.7 fantasy points on four touches. It could have been more if Kenny Pickett hadn't thrown an interception in the Eagles' red zone.
So if you're desperate, maybe the catch-friendly Dare Ogunbowale eats up yards and game clock in the final frame of a lopsided loss.
But the problem is that we have nothing to go on, because the Texans haven't been blown out. So we can't point to an "if this, then that" scenario. It's easy to lay out fantasy projections if we know this will be a close game. But since most oddsmakers justifiably believe the Eagles will win comfortably, we can only estimate how and when the Texans might call plays when the game's well out of reach.
One more thing I found interesting while researching realistic projections for this game. Last season, the Cowboys led the league in forced turnovers (34) and DST touchdowns (nine). The Colts forced one fewer turnovers (33), but scored only three DST TDs.
You know who else had three DST TDs? The Jaguars, which forced only nine turnovers. That's right: Jacksonville's bottom-tier defense converted 33% of their takeaways into DST scores, while Indy's top-10 defense converted only 9%.
DST touchdowns are partly random, and partly predictable. The Eagles lead the NFL with 2.3 takeaways per game. Every takeaway increases the odds of getting a defensive score. But it doesn't guarantee results. That's why predicting DST touchdowns is so difficult, and sometimes entirely random. So while I like the Eagles DST's odds of getting an 8- or 9-point play (sack-fumble-TD or interception-TD), we're also just rolling the dice.
What's more predictable are the turnovers and sacks. And the more points the Eagles score, the more Mills will need to throw, and the higher the probability that he'll make mistakes.
I'm predicting a 37-12 victory for the Texans. I mean the Eagles! (That's for you, Mike.) If you have a prediction, share it below. And good luck jumping out to a big lead to start Week 9.
On the one hand, it seems almost impossible. If you have Jalen Hurts, of course you're starting him. Same for Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. In a blowout win, Kenneth Gainwell or Boston Scott could be a worthwhile flier if your best #2 RB is Chase Edmonds.
I wrote a PFN article publishing this morning that even makes the case for Quez Watkins. Philly reportedly received interest in Watkins before the trade deadline. My thinking is that teams like the Eagles understand seasons can fall apart if you don't have depth. A case could be made that Tampa Bay would have reached the Super Bowl if a rash of injuries hadn't wiped out several key starters--and if their backups had been capable of stepping up.
So in what could be a comfortable win, I believe Hurts will target Watkins (or Zach Pascal, but I lean toward Watkins) a bit more. Because this is the NFL, unfortunately the odds are pretty good that Watkins will be asked to step up later this season, even for one game.
That's the bullish Eagles scenario--a comprehensive dismantling of an opponent on national television. I'm still weighing whether to start the Eagles or Bills D/ST in my league, and as of early this morning, Philly remains in the lead. As from (maybe) Dameon Pierce, will any Texan hit 10+ fantasy points? The Eagles look primed to dominate on both sides of the ball.
And yet, there's another way of looking at this game. No team has walked over Houston this season. In fact, they've led in the fourth quarter in four separate contests. They were tied in the fourth in a fifth game. In their other two matchups, they were down as little as seven points in the fourth.
Seven games. Zero blowouts. Whether it's Brandin Cooks (assuming he plays) or Phillip Dorsett or even the slightly underappreciated Brevin Jordan, the Texans' passing attack might surprise us. Plus, Houston's RBs are the sixth-most targeted in the NFL. There's an opening here for chunk yards, especially if the Eagles are up 20+ in the fourth quarter. Last week Philly was up 22 on Pittsburgh in the fourth. On the Steelers' final meaningless drive, Jaylen Warren picked up 5.7 fantasy points on four touches. It could have been more if Kenny Pickett hadn't thrown an interception in the Eagles' red zone.
So if you're desperate, maybe the catch-friendly Dare Ogunbowale eats up yards and game clock in the final frame of a lopsided loss.
But the problem is that we have nothing to go on, because the Texans haven't been blown out. So we can't point to an "if this, then that" scenario. It's easy to lay out fantasy projections if we know this will be a close game. But since most oddsmakers justifiably believe the Eagles will win comfortably, we can only estimate how and when the Texans might call plays when the game's well out of reach.
One more thing I found interesting while researching realistic projections for this game. Last season, the Cowboys led the league in forced turnovers (34) and DST touchdowns (nine). The Colts forced one fewer turnovers (33), but scored only three DST TDs.
You know who else had three DST TDs? The Jaguars, which forced only nine turnovers. That's right: Jacksonville's bottom-tier defense converted 33% of their takeaways into DST scores, while Indy's top-10 defense converted only 9%.
DST touchdowns are partly random, and partly predictable. The Eagles lead the NFL with 2.3 takeaways per game. Every takeaway increases the odds of getting a defensive score. But it doesn't guarantee results. That's why predicting DST touchdowns is so difficult, and sometimes entirely random. So while I like the Eagles DST's odds of getting an 8- or 9-point play (sack-fumble-TD or interception-TD), we're also just rolling the dice.
What's more predictable are the turnovers and sacks. And the more points the Eagles score, the more Mills will need to throw, and the higher the probability that he'll make mistakes.
I'm predicting a 37-12 victory for the Texans. I mean the Eagles! (That's for you, Mike.) If you have a prediction, share it below. And good luck jumping out to a big lead to start Week 9.