The closer we follow something, the bigger it seems. If we quit the NFL today and spent more time reading or crocheting or doing whatever the heck people who have lives actually do, then nothing on Monday Night Football would matter. And if we watched football for entertainment value, rather than for competition, we might marvel at some big plays, appreciate players' athleticism and determination, and then call it a night by the middle of the third quarter.
But if you're like me, every play has its own drama. Every drive is a story. Every touchdown or interception elevates or diminishes the values of the players involved. It all *matters*.
In many ways, last night did matter. The Bengals' passing game often looked lost without Ja'Marr Chase, and we might wonder if they're make a desperation move today or tomorrow before the trade deadline, whether to help shore up their defense, or perhaps to bolster their backfield.
Or their offensive line. Burrow's on pace to take 62 sacks. That's not sustainable for a 4-4 team with a sub-par running game. Carolina's on deck, then their bye. And then (pause to breathe) their schedule includes home games against the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens, as well as road games versus the Titans, Bucs, and Patriots. Four more losses are possible. Even three more might knock them out of postseason contention if Baltimore (with a much softer remaining schedule) takes care of business.
Fantasy-wise, it's a fascinating (and surely stressful for some of us) situation, especially if you have Joe Mixon. I've written about him many 20 times since the summer. You know what I'm about to say, so I won't keep saying it, except this: Last year he averaged 2.3 yards before contact and 1.9 yards after contact, yet still mostly dominated (while fading down the stretch). He also broke an impressive 20 tackles.
Heading into last night, he was averaging 2.4 yards before contact--better than last season!--but only 1.0 yards after contact (49th best in the league) while breaking a mere five tackles. He's getting the same opportunities, but he's not capitalizing. And last night, on the eve of the trade deadline, he looked like a running back poised for a demotion.
If the Bengals don't bring in RB help, then I'd expect Samaje Perine (four touches) to get more work against Carolina, and/or against Pittsburgh right after their Week 10 bye. Cincy doesn't have the luxury of waiting for Mixon to improve. This is what usually happens to 400+ touch RBs the following season. I've said it again and again. The data doesn't lie, and the results are consistently actionable. If I had Mixon, I'd try to move him ASAP for top-20 RB value, if anyone's willing to take him for top-20 RB value.
For the Browns, the loss of David Njoku was a boon for Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. I thought Harrison Bryant would step up, and I was wrong. Rookie David Bell got a little work instead. I'd be cautious about overpaying for Amari or DPJ. After their bye this week, Cleveland has four road games in five weeks against Miami, Buffalo, Houston, and then Cincinnati. In between, they'll face the Bucs.
Now, Brissett will be stepping aside soon for a presumed QB upgrade. So we might factor that in, assuming there's not too much rust to shake off. But in the short term, I see Amari as more of a WR3 than a WR2 while Njoku's out, and DPJ might be a fringe flex option at best. In the last five weeks they've battled the Falcons, Chargers, Patriots, Ravens, and now the Bengals. Several very soft pass defenses in that group.
Oh, and a cool stat from my spreadsheets: since 2014, the average positional ranking of the Browns’ highest-producing fantasy WR has been 37th. No other team since 2014 has had a worse average ranking for their No. 1 WR. Amari's currently the WR16 in fantasy points per game. While Nick Chubb is the team's MVP, their new #1 WR has done far more than I expected.
And what more can be said about Chubb? Entering this game, he ranked sixth in yards after contact and third in broken tackles, 5.9 yards per carry, etc. He's the statistical mirror image of Cooper Kupp last season. Chubb's on pace for more than 1,700 rushing yards and 21 rushing TDs. Last year he converted 41 red zone looks into five touchdowns (12%). This year he’s already converted 27 into eight (30%), including 2-of-3 last night. He's a machine
Oh, and obviously all eyes are on Kareem Hunt. I thought Cleveland would keep him hidden away. His 15 touches suggests (to me, anyway) that he's not going anywhere. The Browns think they have a playoff-caliber team. Because otherwise, why would they risk an injury to someone who could fetch them a solid draft pick or two? Hunt's walking after this season. So either he helps them the rest of the way, or they exchange him for future value. It's a fascinating situation. D'Ernest Johnson's 2022 value clearly hangs in the balance.
And the closest-score prediction: I was way off picking the Bengals. Most of you went with the favored road team, too. But four brave (i.e. savvy) people picked the Browns. And the closest picker was Gary Beardmore, who predicted 27-23. This is Gary's second consecutive MNF victory and third of the season. There's never been a closest-score picker like him, at least based on my very limited knowledge.
So Gary, you're now in first place in this mostly irrelevant-but-still-enjoyable competition. We have a little more than half a season to catch up.
But if you're like me, every play has its own drama. Every drive is a story. Every touchdown or interception elevates or diminishes the values of the players involved. It all *matters*.
In many ways, last night did matter. The Bengals' passing game often looked lost without Ja'Marr Chase, and we might wonder if they're make a desperation move today or tomorrow before the trade deadline, whether to help shore up their defense, or perhaps to bolster their backfield.
Or their offensive line. Burrow's on pace to take 62 sacks. That's not sustainable for a 4-4 team with a sub-par running game. Carolina's on deck, then their bye. And then (pause to breathe) their schedule includes home games against the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens, as well as road games versus the Titans, Bucs, and Patriots. Four more losses are possible. Even three more might knock them out of postseason contention if Baltimore (with a much softer remaining schedule) takes care of business.
Fantasy-wise, it's a fascinating (and surely stressful for some of us) situation, especially if you have Joe Mixon. I've written about him many 20 times since the summer. You know what I'm about to say, so I won't keep saying it, except this: Last year he averaged 2.3 yards before contact and 1.9 yards after contact, yet still mostly dominated (while fading down the stretch). He also broke an impressive 20 tackles.
Heading into last night, he was averaging 2.4 yards before contact--better than last season!--but only 1.0 yards after contact (49th best in the league) while breaking a mere five tackles. He's getting the same opportunities, but he's not capitalizing. And last night, on the eve of the trade deadline, he looked like a running back poised for a demotion.
If the Bengals don't bring in RB help, then I'd expect Samaje Perine (four touches) to get more work against Carolina, and/or against Pittsburgh right after their Week 10 bye. Cincy doesn't have the luxury of waiting for Mixon to improve. This is what usually happens to 400+ touch RBs the following season. I've said it again and again. The data doesn't lie, and the results are consistently actionable. If I had Mixon, I'd try to move him ASAP for top-20 RB value, if anyone's willing to take him for top-20 RB value.
For the Browns, the loss of David Njoku was a boon for Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. I thought Harrison Bryant would step up, and I was wrong. Rookie David Bell got a little work instead. I'd be cautious about overpaying for Amari or DPJ. After their bye this week, Cleveland has four road games in five weeks against Miami, Buffalo, Houston, and then Cincinnati. In between, they'll face the Bucs.
Now, Brissett will be stepping aside soon for a presumed QB upgrade. So we might factor that in, assuming there's not too much rust to shake off. But in the short term, I see Amari as more of a WR3 than a WR2 while Njoku's out, and DPJ might be a fringe flex option at best. In the last five weeks they've battled the Falcons, Chargers, Patriots, Ravens, and now the Bengals. Several very soft pass defenses in that group.
Oh, and a cool stat from my spreadsheets: since 2014, the average positional ranking of the Browns’ highest-producing fantasy WR has been 37th. No other team since 2014 has had a worse average ranking for their No. 1 WR. Amari's currently the WR16 in fantasy points per game. While Nick Chubb is the team's MVP, their new #1 WR has done far more than I expected.
And what more can be said about Chubb? Entering this game, he ranked sixth in yards after contact and third in broken tackles, 5.9 yards per carry, etc. He's the statistical mirror image of Cooper Kupp last season. Chubb's on pace for more than 1,700 rushing yards and 21 rushing TDs. Last year he converted 41 red zone looks into five touchdowns (12%). This year he’s already converted 27 into eight (30%), including 2-of-3 last night. He's a machine
Oh, and obviously all eyes are on Kareem Hunt. I thought Cleveland would keep him hidden away. His 15 touches suggests (to me, anyway) that he's not going anywhere. The Browns think they have a playoff-caliber team. Because otherwise, why would they risk an injury to someone who could fetch them a solid draft pick or two? Hunt's walking after this season. So either he helps them the rest of the way, or they exchange him for future value. It's a fascinating situation. D'Ernest Johnson's 2022 value clearly hangs in the balance.
And the closest-score prediction: I was way off picking the Bengals. Most of you went with the favored road team, too. But four brave (i.e. savvy) people picked the Browns. And the closest picker was Gary Beardmore, who predicted 27-23. This is Gary's second consecutive MNF victory and third of the season. There's never been a closest-score picker like him, at least based on my very limited knowledge.
So Gary, you're now in first place in this mostly irrelevant-but-still-enjoyable competition. We have a little more than half a season to catch up.