It's already stressful starting someone on Thursday Night Football, hoping you don't wind up with 3.5 points from your WR heading into Sunday. But with three Thursday games . . . In my league, some folks had three or four guys playing yesterday. That's a lot of pressure to start Week 12. Or facing someone starting, say, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. You're already about 78 point in the hole.
But before looking ahead to Sunday, let's make sense of yesterday's contests, pinpointing the biggest fantasy storylines for each team.
Lions -- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been far better than I anticipated over the summer, and it's not even close. In fairness, he was ranked 69th overall in my preseason rankings, compared to a 61 ADP. But that's no excuse. He's a top-10 WR based on production, and with T.J. Hockenson no longer in the picture, St. Brown should continue thriving even when Jameson Williams returns (as soon as next week).
The Jamaal Williams vs. D'Andre Swift start/sit dilemma ended up being moot, as both scored roughly the same points. But I love Swift getting eight targets, and he nearly scored twice. So there's still major pop in his game heading into the home stretch, while Williams remains the same volume- and TD-dependent RB he's been all year. Hey, it's great for his managers. But it's alsso not easily sustainable.
Bills -- Last year, Buffalo gave up 17 points per game--tops in the league. This year it's still only 18.1 points per game. But that's around 6th or 7th best. Their turnover differential is +1; last year it was +8. While the Bills remain a great team, they don't seem as dominant as last year, and many of the numbers reinforce it, particularly on defense. Fantasy-wise, it has an impact, They've averaged two less minutes on offense each games compared to 2021. They're averaging fewer plays. It all ties together. Not dramatically. But it matters.
Of course, they were playing one of the league's worst defenses, and Josh Allen rose to the occasion. So did Stefon Diggs and Isaiah McKenzie, who earned a combined 25 looks. But it's a yellow flag that Devin Singletary has only five targets in his last three games. Gabe Davis remains hit-or-miss, which is tougher for managers who need reliability in these closing weeks of the fantasy regular season. The Patriots and Jets are up next. Asidde from Allen and Diggs, can we really trust anyone else to hit double-digits?
Cowboys -- A much closer game than I expected. If you read my PFN props article (and I might have highlighted it here), you knew I was more bullish than usual about Zeke Elliott and Michael Gallup. Dallas can't lean solely on Tony Pollard in the postseason, so getting Zeke into a groove is key. The same goes for Gallup; Dak Prescott needs a reliable #2 WR, and Gallup has the experience (former 1,000-yard receiver) and skillset to be a strong #2--certainly stronger than Noah Brown.
And I've remained incredibly high on Dalton Schultz. He was ranked 30th overall on my big board this summer, which might sound ridiculous considering his overall ADP was 55. And yeah, I get it. But he hit 209 fantasy points last year (overall TE3), and I believed a healthy Dak could help push Schultz to 240+ points. In six Dak starts this year, Schultz has averaged 16.2 points. The TE2 in points per game, Mark Andrews, is averaging *only* 14.9. So yeah, Schultz is the real deal.
Giants -- I warned about Saquon Barkley for many reasons, and for several weeks. He got his point, but it should be clear that he's struggling. In his last six games he's averaging about 3.5 yards per carry. Defenses are forcing Daniel Jones to pass. New York was able to keep it close (two bad-luck Dak interceptions helped). But I don't see things getting easier for Saquon, who increasingly needs to score to be in the must-start camp.
Vikings -- Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson did better than I anticipated, while Adam Thielen and T.J. Hockenson came through as expected (though Thielen exceeded my realistic ceiling for him). Dalvin Cook is a big story, too. He received 5+ targets for the fourth time in five games. But he isn't doing much with the opportunities. His season high for receiving yards is 30. He gets the Jets and Colts in two of the next three weeks. No doubt, he's been fantastic this season overall. But his declining playmaking in the passing game is concerning.
Patriots -- Finally, I was "no more confident" bout Damien Harris as I was about Rhamondre Stevenson. But most people probably favored Rhamondre, and they were right, as he led all Patriots with nine reception. Of course, Harris was knocked out in the third quarter, so who knows what would have happened if he'd remained in the game. Still, Stevenson outplayed him and remains king of the Patriots hill.
But before looking ahead to Sunday, let's make sense of yesterday's contests, pinpointing the biggest fantasy storylines for each team.
Lions -- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been far better than I anticipated over the summer, and it's not even close. In fairness, he was ranked 69th overall in my preseason rankings, compared to a 61 ADP. But that's no excuse. He's a top-10 WR based on production, and with T.J. Hockenson no longer in the picture, St. Brown should continue thriving even when Jameson Williams returns (as soon as next week).
The Jamaal Williams vs. D'Andre Swift start/sit dilemma ended up being moot, as both scored roughly the same points. But I love Swift getting eight targets, and he nearly scored twice. So there's still major pop in his game heading into the home stretch, while Williams remains the same volume- and TD-dependent RB he's been all year. Hey, it's great for his managers. But it's alsso not easily sustainable.
Bills -- Last year, Buffalo gave up 17 points per game--tops in the league. This year it's still only 18.1 points per game. But that's around 6th or 7th best. Their turnover differential is +1; last year it was +8. While the Bills remain a great team, they don't seem as dominant as last year, and many of the numbers reinforce it, particularly on defense. Fantasy-wise, it has an impact, They've averaged two less minutes on offense each games compared to 2021. They're averaging fewer plays. It all ties together. Not dramatically. But it matters.
Of course, they were playing one of the league's worst defenses, and Josh Allen rose to the occasion. So did Stefon Diggs and Isaiah McKenzie, who earned a combined 25 looks. But it's a yellow flag that Devin Singletary has only five targets in his last three games. Gabe Davis remains hit-or-miss, which is tougher for managers who need reliability in these closing weeks of the fantasy regular season. The Patriots and Jets are up next. Asidde from Allen and Diggs, can we really trust anyone else to hit double-digits?
Cowboys -- A much closer game than I expected. If you read my PFN props article (and I might have highlighted it here), you knew I was more bullish than usual about Zeke Elliott and Michael Gallup. Dallas can't lean solely on Tony Pollard in the postseason, so getting Zeke into a groove is key. The same goes for Gallup; Dak Prescott needs a reliable #2 WR, and Gallup has the experience (former 1,000-yard receiver) and skillset to be a strong #2--certainly stronger than Noah Brown.
And I've remained incredibly high on Dalton Schultz. He was ranked 30th overall on my big board this summer, which might sound ridiculous considering his overall ADP was 55. And yeah, I get it. But he hit 209 fantasy points last year (overall TE3), and I believed a healthy Dak could help push Schultz to 240+ points. In six Dak starts this year, Schultz has averaged 16.2 points. The TE2 in points per game, Mark Andrews, is averaging *only* 14.9. So yeah, Schultz is the real deal.
Giants -- I warned about Saquon Barkley for many reasons, and for several weeks. He got his point, but it should be clear that he's struggling. In his last six games he's averaging about 3.5 yards per carry. Defenses are forcing Daniel Jones to pass. New York was able to keep it close (two bad-luck Dak interceptions helped). But I don't see things getting easier for Saquon, who increasingly needs to score to be in the must-start camp.
Vikings -- Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson did better than I anticipated, while Adam Thielen and T.J. Hockenson came through as expected (though Thielen exceeded my realistic ceiling for him). Dalvin Cook is a big story, too. He received 5+ targets for the fourth time in five games. But he isn't doing much with the opportunities. His season high for receiving yards is 30. He gets the Jets and Colts in two of the next three weeks. No doubt, he's been fantastic this season overall. But his declining playmaking in the passing game is concerning.
Patriots -- Finally, I was "no more confident" bout Damien Harris as I was about Rhamondre Stevenson. But most people probably favored Rhamondre, and they were right, as he led all Patriots with nine reception. Of course, Harris was knocked out in the third quarter, so who knows what would have happened if he'd remained in the game. Still, Stevenson outplayed him and remains king of the Patriots hill.