Happy Thanksgiving, and happy Thanksgiving football. Most of us have reasons to watch today, or surreptitiously follow along on our phone while hanging with family. Or if you're enjoying a quiet holiday and want to reach out, I'll be around, surreptitiously responding while hanging with family.
As always, here's my blunt fantasy assessment of today's games, going team by team:
Lions -- Can Jared Goff put as much pressure on Buffalo as other recent opposing QBs? Last weekend, Jacoby Brissett threw for 324 yards and three touchdowns. A shaky Kirk Cousins managed 357 yards and a score the week before. Meanwhile, Buffalo's supposedly strong defense just gave up a combined 13-174-3 receiving line to Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The week before, Justin Jefferson went off for 10-103-1. Surely Amon-Ra St. Brown is a must-start, with Goff serving as a solid two-QB-league option.
But at running back, I'm going against the grain. Jamaal Williams hasn't cleared 3.8 yards per carry in any of his last three outings. He hasn't caught a pass since November. Seven of his scores have come from the one-yard line. I actually prefer the more rested D'Andre Swift today. For all his 2022 shortcomings, Swift is only two months removed from being hailed as a near-elite RB. The Lions simply need to commit to him in the passing game. I'd start Swift over the TD-dependent Williams against one of the league's better run defenses.
Bills -- Do you trust Josh Allen with his elbow injury? He has only two passing TDs and four picks in his last two games. In fact, he's had fewer than two touchdowns in consecutive games for the first time since Weeks 6 and 7 of 2020. Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs is coming off a season-low five-target performance. I'm envisioning Diggs getting fed and Allen cracking 18 points, though nothing overly special for the normally elite QB.
In the backfield, Devin Singletary had 20 touches four days ago, while rookie James Cook broke out. This could turn into an even split today, especially if Buffalo pushes out to a comfortable lead. Candidly, I like both as top-35 RBs. But their ceilings a bit capped at around 12-14 points.
Cowboys -- Start everyone. Joking and not joking. In addition to the obvious calls (Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb), I love Michael Gallup netting season-high yardage; Dak will need a strong #2 WR for the playoffs, and Gallup remainss the best candidate. Dalton Schultz also needs to start, despite a rough Week 11 outing.
For the backfield, more of the same. Tony Pollard has better upside, while Zeke Elliott should handle goal-line carries. The opposing Giants are surrendering the NFL's second-most yards per carry (5.3). It's a good day to have Cowboys in your lineup.
Giants -- I have a PFN article coming out today on why the 7-3 Giants are longshots to make the playoffs. They're down their top three WRs from Week 1, Kenny Golladay has dropped 40% of his targets, and Saquon Barkley is on pace for the most RB touches since 2014. And their remaining schedule includes the Eagles (twice), Commanders (twice), Vikings, and Colts.
Everything rests on Saquon. I wouldn't trust Darius Slayton, except as a dart throw who could get 4-40. Daniel Jones is shaping up to be a bust. And Saquon . . . he averaged a blistering 5.5 yards per carry in 97 attempts in his first five games. In his five games since, his usage has jumped (116 attempts), while efficiency has plummeted (3.6 yards per carry). He's also averaging one fewer receptions per game. I'm concerned the Cowboys will bottle him up just like Detroit did, daring Daniel Jone to beat them. Saquon is a risky bet who could easily finish with 12 carries for 41 yards and two catches for seven yards.
Vikings -- I'm having a tough time assessing the nightcap. The Patriots' D is the real deal. But they've also beaten up on some basement-level QBs. So I'm envisioning Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson turning things around, putting Cousins in the 13-16 point range (yeah, not great, but not atrocious) and Jefferson in the 13-17 point range, depending on whether he finds the end zone. That makes Adam Thielen a solid WR flier and T.J. Hockenson a better TE flier.
The thing I'm stuck on--the potential differentiator in an otherwise deadlocked matchup--is whether Minnesota will recommit to Dalvin Cook through the air. Cook's receptions per contest have dwindled each year since reaching 3.8 in 2019. This year he's netting only 2.2. He was #5 in the NFL (among *all* players, not just RBs) in yards after the catch three years ago. And so, four days after an embarrassing home loss in which Cook went catch-less, I'm anticipating the Vikings will get him more involved in an area where he can be most dangerous.
Patriots -- Let's keep this simple. Jakobi Meyers is a deep flier, and that's the best I can say about New England's weak passing game. Unless the Vikings take a huge lead, I'd expect Mac Jones to be constrained, as the team tries to once again win on the ground and on defense.
But . . . Rhamondre Stevenson's yards per carry have dropped in recent weeks. He wasn't a bell cow in college, but is earning heavy volume in the pros, including 21 touches on Sunday--compared to only 10 for the seemingly rejuvenated and healthy Damien Harris. I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that Stevenson is a must-start, while Harris is a dart throw. With Harris getting a little more work in the passing game, he has a chance of earning more looks than Stevenson today. I'm no more confident about one as I am about the other. They're both volume-dependent streamers.
Good luck, today.
As always, here's my blunt fantasy assessment of today's games, going team by team:
Lions -- Can Jared Goff put as much pressure on Buffalo as other recent opposing QBs? Last weekend, Jacoby Brissett threw for 324 yards and three touchdowns. A shaky Kirk Cousins managed 357 yards and a score the week before. Meanwhile, Buffalo's supposedly strong defense just gave up a combined 13-174-3 receiving line to Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The week before, Justin Jefferson went off for 10-103-1. Surely Amon-Ra St. Brown is a must-start, with Goff serving as a solid two-QB-league option.
But at running back, I'm going against the grain. Jamaal Williams hasn't cleared 3.8 yards per carry in any of his last three outings. He hasn't caught a pass since November. Seven of his scores have come from the one-yard line. I actually prefer the more rested D'Andre Swift today. For all his 2022 shortcomings, Swift is only two months removed from being hailed as a near-elite RB. The Lions simply need to commit to him in the passing game. I'd start Swift over the TD-dependent Williams against one of the league's better run defenses.
Bills -- Do you trust Josh Allen with his elbow injury? He has only two passing TDs and four picks in his last two games. In fact, he's had fewer than two touchdowns in consecutive games for the first time since Weeks 6 and 7 of 2020. Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs is coming off a season-low five-target performance. I'm envisioning Diggs getting fed and Allen cracking 18 points, though nothing overly special for the normally elite QB.
In the backfield, Devin Singletary had 20 touches four days ago, while rookie James Cook broke out. This could turn into an even split today, especially if Buffalo pushes out to a comfortable lead. Candidly, I like both as top-35 RBs. But their ceilings a bit capped at around 12-14 points.
Cowboys -- Start everyone. Joking and not joking. In addition to the obvious calls (Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb), I love Michael Gallup netting season-high yardage; Dak will need a strong #2 WR for the playoffs, and Gallup remainss the best candidate. Dalton Schultz also needs to start, despite a rough Week 11 outing.
For the backfield, more of the same. Tony Pollard has better upside, while Zeke Elliott should handle goal-line carries. The opposing Giants are surrendering the NFL's second-most yards per carry (5.3). It's a good day to have Cowboys in your lineup.
Giants -- I have a PFN article coming out today on why the 7-3 Giants are longshots to make the playoffs. They're down their top three WRs from Week 1, Kenny Golladay has dropped 40% of his targets, and Saquon Barkley is on pace for the most RB touches since 2014. And their remaining schedule includes the Eagles (twice), Commanders (twice), Vikings, and Colts.
Everything rests on Saquon. I wouldn't trust Darius Slayton, except as a dart throw who could get 4-40. Daniel Jones is shaping up to be a bust. And Saquon . . . he averaged a blistering 5.5 yards per carry in 97 attempts in his first five games. In his five games since, his usage has jumped (116 attempts), while efficiency has plummeted (3.6 yards per carry). He's also averaging one fewer receptions per game. I'm concerned the Cowboys will bottle him up just like Detroit did, daring Daniel Jone to beat them. Saquon is a risky bet who could easily finish with 12 carries for 41 yards and two catches for seven yards.
Vikings -- I'm having a tough time assessing the nightcap. The Patriots' D is the real deal. But they've also beaten up on some basement-level QBs. So I'm envisioning Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson turning things around, putting Cousins in the 13-16 point range (yeah, not great, but not atrocious) and Jefferson in the 13-17 point range, depending on whether he finds the end zone. That makes Adam Thielen a solid WR flier and T.J. Hockenson a better TE flier.
The thing I'm stuck on--the potential differentiator in an otherwise deadlocked matchup--is whether Minnesota will recommit to Dalvin Cook through the air. Cook's receptions per contest have dwindled each year since reaching 3.8 in 2019. This year he's netting only 2.2. He was #5 in the NFL (among *all* players, not just RBs) in yards after the catch three years ago. And so, four days after an embarrassing home loss in which Cook went catch-less, I'm anticipating the Vikings will get him more involved in an area where he can be most dangerous.
Patriots -- Let's keep this simple. Jakobi Meyers is a deep flier, and that's the best I can say about New England's weak passing game. Unless the Vikings take a huge lead, I'd expect Mac Jones to be constrained, as the team tries to once again win on the ground and on defense.
But . . . Rhamondre Stevenson's yards per carry have dropped in recent weeks. He wasn't a bell cow in college, but is earning heavy volume in the pros, including 21 touches on Sunday--compared to only 10 for the seemingly rejuvenated and healthy Damien Harris. I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that Stevenson is a must-start, while Harris is a dart throw. With Harris getting a little more work in the passing game, he has a chance of earning more looks than Stevenson today. I'm no more confident about one as I am about the other. They're both volume-dependent streamers.
Good luck, today.