There are 12 games tomorrow. Seven have point spreads of four points or less. Two have spreads ranging from 14 to 16 points. Although there are no bye teams this week, some of you might be desperate. Maybe you need that boom-bust flier who could get you 13+ points in a blowout win or loss--someone who wouldn't normally play a major role, but who gets the opportunity because of an extreme positive or negative game script.
So unlike previous Saturday columns, today I'm writing for desperate managers--or at least, managers who might not be excited to start Gus Edwards or (if healthy) Allen Robinson. This isn't about "interesting fantasy storylines." We're getting too deep into the season for that. This is about fantasy survival. Who's one undervalued player on each Sunday team who could break out tomorrow?
Browns vs. Buccaneers -- I'm not going to force recommendations if there aren't obvious ones, but will suggest value where I think it exists. For Cleveland, entering Week 10, rookie David Bell hadn't collected more than three targets in a game. But he's seen five targets in each of his past two outings. Surely, David Njoku's injury and gradual return played a role. Yet Bell has some pop if the Bucs jump out to a double-digit lead and force Cleveland to abandon the run. For the Bucs, Julio Jones is available in 76% of ESPN leagues. Whatever happens in their backfield between Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White, we can't ignore that Tom Brady once again leads all QBs in pass attempts. Julio is a nice dart throw.
Titans vs. Bengals -- Treylon Burks is no longer a "hidden gem." Austin Hooper still is. As you know, I hate chasing points. But Cincy is pretty tough against the run, and we know what their offene can do, especially with Ja'Marr Chase likely to return. I don't think Tennessee can ride Derrick Henry all day. Hooper has nice catches in his last two outings and could realistically be Ryan Tannehill's #2 receiver tomorrow. For the Bengals, whether or not Joe Mixon returns, Samaje Perine brings enormous upside if a starting Mixon suffers a setback (entirely posssible) or if the Bengals play it safe with their bell cow (also entirely possible).
Dolphins vs. Texans -- Recommending Jeff Wilson isn't interesting or useful. Instead Trent Sherfield deserves more attention. Among all Miami RBs and receivers in their last game, Sherfield was #3 in snaps. He's officially overtaken Cedrick Wilson as the #3 WR in a high-powered offense. Not a bad flier. And if you believe as I do that the Fins will win by 18+, we can envision Dare Ogunbowale getting plenty of fourth-quarter run. He caught five passes a few weeks ago, and Kyle Allen is making his first start of the year, hoping to leapfrog Davis Mills for 2023. I can see him targeting his RBs throughout the game, and the little-used Ogunbowale could rack up buckets of points in garbage time.
Jets vs. Bears -- Mike White is one of the least mobile QBs in the league. Fortunately, the Bears are second-to-last in the NFL with only 15 sacks. I'll go out on a small limb and say Tyler Conklin is well-positioned for a rebound performance after two consecutive dismal outings. And with Justin Fields questionable, I can't begin to imagine which under-the-radar Bear could shine in a brutal matchup. But if you're in a big league and are truly desperate, Trestan Ebner caught 127 passes in college. The Jets are yielding the 10th most RB receiving yards. Ebner's operating as the #2 RB. There's a narrow path to success if he gets looks through the air.
Commanders vs. Falcons -- Jahan Dotson. Enormous upside against an awful pass defense. Not as buried on the depth chart as he might seem. And for Atlanta, there are no obvious replacements for Kyle Pitts; any of three TEs could step up. If you have Drake London, you're probably starting him. Frequent #2 WR Olamide Zaccheaus gets the biggest bump from "Why would you start him?" to "Yeah, I can see how he could get 10 points."
Panthers vs. Broncos -- Facing a tough Denver pass defense, Sam Darnold and his receivers are all too risky for me. Instead, I'd start the Panthers DST as a potential top-10 option vs. a broken offense. And for Denver, it's Latavius Murray or bust. I'd be shocked if he gets less than 18 touches.
Jaguars vs. Ravens -- Could Darrell Henderson have an impact? Probably not. This is unquestionably Travis Etienne's backfield. So we look to the air, where the Ravens are yielding the seventh most recveiving yards. Beyond Christian Kirk, I'd call Zay Jones a must-start top-40 RB in deep leagues, with the expectation these teams could combine for 50+ points. And for Baltimore, Demarcus Robinson is post-hype. But he's available in 87% of ESPN leagues, so apparently he remains under the radar.
Cardinals vs. Chargers -- If the injured Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch sit, there's a clear path for Robbie Anderson and/or A.J. Green to step up. Green operated well ahead of Anderson last week, suggesting that the aging veteran could be the #2 WR opposite DeAndre Hopkins. And for the Chargers, assuming Mike Williams sits, we all have our opinions on what to do with Josh Palmer in a plus matchup. But DeAndre Carter? Yeah, he'd have to be taken seriously as the #3 WR against a defense giving up the third-most receiving yards and second-most receiving TDs.
Seahawks vs. Raiders -- Noah Fant remains one of those boom-bust TEs we have to consider, especially facing a mostly anemic Raiders D. And for Vegas's top-heavy receiving corps, if you need to go for broke with a solid-floor WR, Mack Hollins is your guy with Hunter Renfrow on Injured Reserve.
Chiefs vs. Rams -- Justin Watson remains the same intriguing flier he's been since Week 1. If you can stomach the inconsistency, he's a big-play receiver facing a deflated franchise. And for L.A., it's Cam Akers or bust. Terrible situation all around. But the Rams probably want to keep seeing what they have in Akers, especially after they jettisoned Henderson. And if Akers plays well down the stretch, they could also trade him in the offseason for decent picks. Either way, while Kyren Williams could eventually take over, I think Akers is one of the Rams' best bets for 8+ points.
49ers vs. Saints -- San Francisco has a deep, top-heavy offense. Jauan Jenning seems like an unnecessarily risky flier. The opposing Saints are last in the league in interceptions. I'm comfortable starting Jimmy G. as a top-14 QB with a terrific ceiling in what should be a comfortable win. And for New Orleans, can we trust anyone besides Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and perhaps Juwan Johnson? After months of warning against starting Taysom Hill (and in fairness, he's been essentially unstartable each of the last six games), this is the week when I'd start him if you're short at TE. This team has nothing to lose in a lost season.
Eagles vs. Packers -- Finally, Sunday Night Football. For Philly, once again I'm pushing Quez Watkins for all the reasons previously shared. And for Green Bay, Christian Watson is post-hype. Honestly, I can't believe I'm writing this. But the little-rostered Randall Cobb goes way back with Aaron Rodgers. Assuming the Packers are playing from behind, a healthy Cobb could realistically get you 10+ points if you're completely stuck.
So unlike previous Saturday columns, today I'm writing for desperate managers--or at least, managers who might not be excited to start Gus Edwards or (if healthy) Allen Robinson. This isn't about "interesting fantasy storylines." We're getting too deep into the season for that. This is about fantasy survival. Who's one undervalued player on each Sunday team who could break out tomorrow?
Browns vs. Buccaneers -- I'm not going to force recommendations if there aren't obvious ones, but will suggest value where I think it exists. For Cleveland, entering Week 10, rookie David Bell hadn't collected more than three targets in a game. But he's seen five targets in each of his past two outings. Surely, David Njoku's injury and gradual return played a role. Yet Bell has some pop if the Bucs jump out to a double-digit lead and force Cleveland to abandon the run. For the Bucs, Julio Jones is available in 76% of ESPN leagues. Whatever happens in their backfield between Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White, we can't ignore that Tom Brady once again leads all QBs in pass attempts. Julio is a nice dart throw.
Titans vs. Bengals -- Treylon Burks is no longer a "hidden gem." Austin Hooper still is. As you know, I hate chasing points. But Cincy is pretty tough against the run, and we know what their offene can do, especially with Ja'Marr Chase likely to return. I don't think Tennessee can ride Derrick Henry all day. Hooper has nice catches in his last two outings and could realistically be Ryan Tannehill's #2 receiver tomorrow. For the Bengals, whether or not Joe Mixon returns, Samaje Perine brings enormous upside if a starting Mixon suffers a setback (entirely posssible) or if the Bengals play it safe with their bell cow (also entirely possible).
Dolphins vs. Texans -- Recommending Jeff Wilson isn't interesting or useful. Instead Trent Sherfield deserves more attention. Among all Miami RBs and receivers in their last game, Sherfield was #3 in snaps. He's officially overtaken Cedrick Wilson as the #3 WR in a high-powered offense. Not a bad flier. And if you believe as I do that the Fins will win by 18+, we can envision Dare Ogunbowale getting plenty of fourth-quarter run. He caught five passes a few weeks ago, and Kyle Allen is making his first start of the year, hoping to leapfrog Davis Mills for 2023. I can see him targeting his RBs throughout the game, and the little-used Ogunbowale could rack up buckets of points in garbage time.
Jets vs. Bears -- Mike White is one of the least mobile QBs in the league. Fortunately, the Bears are second-to-last in the NFL with only 15 sacks. I'll go out on a small limb and say Tyler Conklin is well-positioned for a rebound performance after two consecutive dismal outings. And with Justin Fields questionable, I can't begin to imagine which under-the-radar Bear could shine in a brutal matchup. But if you're in a big league and are truly desperate, Trestan Ebner caught 127 passes in college. The Jets are yielding the 10th most RB receiving yards. Ebner's operating as the #2 RB. There's a narrow path to success if he gets looks through the air.
Commanders vs. Falcons -- Jahan Dotson. Enormous upside against an awful pass defense. Not as buried on the depth chart as he might seem. And for Atlanta, there are no obvious replacements for Kyle Pitts; any of three TEs could step up. If you have Drake London, you're probably starting him. Frequent #2 WR Olamide Zaccheaus gets the biggest bump from "Why would you start him?" to "Yeah, I can see how he could get 10 points."
Panthers vs. Broncos -- Facing a tough Denver pass defense, Sam Darnold and his receivers are all too risky for me. Instead, I'd start the Panthers DST as a potential top-10 option vs. a broken offense. And for Denver, it's Latavius Murray or bust. I'd be shocked if he gets less than 18 touches.
Jaguars vs. Ravens -- Could Darrell Henderson have an impact? Probably not. This is unquestionably Travis Etienne's backfield. So we look to the air, where the Ravens are yielding the seventh most recveiving yards. Beyond Christian Kirk, I'd call Zay Jones a must-start top-40 RB in deep leagues, with the expectation these teams could combine for 50+ points. And for Baltimore, Demarcus Robinson is post-hype. But he's available in 87% of ESPN leagues, so apparently he remains under the radar.
Cardinals vs. Chargers -- If the injured Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch sit, there's a clear path for Robbie Anderson and/or A.J. Green to step up. Green operated well ahead of Anderson last week, suggesting that the aging veteran could be the #2 WR opposite DeAndre Hopkins. And for the Chargers, assuming Mike Williams sits, we all have our opinions on what to do with Josh Palmer in a plus matchup. But DeAndre Carter? Yeah, he'd have to be taken seriously as the #3 WR against a defense giving up the third-most receiving yards and second-most receiving TDs.
Seahawks vs. Raiders -- Noah Fant remains one of those boom-bust TEs we have to consider, especially facing a mostly anemic Raiders D. And for Vegas's top-heavy receiving corps, if you need to go for broke with a solid-floor WR, Mack Hollins is your guy with Hunter Renfrow on Injured Reserve.
Chiefs vs. Rams -- Justin Watson remains the same intriguing flier he's been since Week 1. If you can stomach the inconsistency, he's a big-play receiver facing a deflated franchise. And for L.A., it's Cam Akers or bust. Terrible situation all around. But the Rams probably want to keep seeing what they have in Akers, especially after they jettisoned Henderson. And if Akers plays well down the stretch, they could also trade him in the offseason for decent picks. Either way, while Kyren Williams could eventually take over, I think Akers is one of the Rams' best bets for 8+ points.
49ers vs. Saints -- San Francisco has a deep, top-heavy offense. Jauan Jenning seems like an unnecessarily risky flier. The opposing Saints are last in the league in interceptions. I'm comfortable starting Jimmy G. as a top-14 QB with a terrific ceiling in what should be a comfortable win. And for New Orleans, can we trust anyone besides Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and perhaps Juwan Johnson? After months of warning against starting Taysom Hill (and in fairness, he's been essentially unstartable each of the last six games), this is the week when I'd start him if you're short at TE. This team has nothing to lose in a lost season.
Eagles vs. Packers -- Finally, Sunday Night Football. For Philly, once again I'm pushing Quez Watkins for all the reasons previously shared. And for Green Bay, Christian Watson is post-hype. Honestly, I can't believe I'm writing this. But the little-rostered Randall Cobb goes way back with Aaron Rodgers. Assuming the Packers are playing from behind, a healthy Cobb could realistically get you 10+ points if you're completely stuck.