Week 12 is in the books. I know some of you needed big performance from guys like Najee Harris or Pat Freiermuth or Parris Campbell. But apparently, this wasn't that kind of game. The Colts had no first downs in the first 22 minutes. Jonathan Taylor inexplicably went 13 minutes between touches in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, rookie Jelani Woods finally broke through. The tight end has been largely buried on the depth chart alongside Mo-Alie Cox and Kylen Granson. Despite three scores earlier this year, he hadn't earned more than three targets in a game. Last night he caught eight of nine looks for 98 yards. There's nothing fluke-ish about it. Woods was an early third-round draft pick for a reason.
That said, he's more valuable in dynasty than in re-draft. Matt Ryan generally cannot feed more than two receivers per game. Campbell took a backseat in this one, and Alec Pierce--despite getting targeted on Ryan's first pass after seeing eight looks last weekend--posted a goose egg. The Colts entered this past week second-to-last in points per game. For Woods to be streamable going forward, Ryan would need to transform into someone he no longer is.
Back to Taylor: a lot of fantasay surely are relieved that he had another good outing. Hopefully the injury bug is past him and he can finish strong. However . . . he closed the night with only 19 rushing yards on his last eight carries. Notably, in his previous game after losing a fumble late (his third in five games), he rushed three times for only three yards and was replaced by Deon Jackson on the final drive in a one-point loss.
So let's keep this in our back pocket. As incredible as Taylor is, there are some concerns, especially as these games wear on. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry in the second half as a rookie in 2020, and then 6.2 in the second half last season. This year it's 5.1. Still incredible. But factor in the fumbles and weaker offense (fewer scoring opportunities), and we can see how Taylor is a little more touchdown-dependent than we'd like to see.
For Pittsburgh, Najee exited early with an abdominal injury after getting mostly held in check (besides the TD) against a Colts D yielding the second-fewest yards per carry in the league (3.8). Then Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland combined for four runs of 8+ yards, and suddenly Indy looked a lot more like the Chargers.
Indy's defense was on the field for more than 34 minutes. Most of you know the context, but in case it's not as familiar, the Commanders lead all team this season with just under 33 minutes of offensive possession per game. Pittsburgh wore down one of the league's better D's on the road, and without their bell cow for the entire second half. The execution doesn't get much better than that.
I'm not putting much stock in the muted performances from George Pickens, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth. Two came very close to scoring. It simply didn't pan out. Against Atlanta next week, Pickett could hit 300+ total yards, and I'd start Pickens and Johnson with confidence as top-32 WRs, and Freiermuth as a top-14 TE. Week 15's home tilt against Vegas (for you playoff-bound managers) could be an ideal situation, especially if the 4-7 Steelers win two of their next three to remain mathematically in playoff contention.
As for the closest-score competition, many of you picked Pittsburgh in a minor upset, so congrats on getting that right (I got it wrong). Three of you were four points away from guessing the final score. But only one of you was three points away. Harley Swan? You're our big winner with a 21-17 prediction. Congratulations on your first win of the season.
Meanwhile, rookie Jelani Woods finally broke through. The tight end has been largely buried on the depth chart alongside Mo-Alie Cox and Kylen Granson. Despite three scores earlier this year, he hadn't earned more than three targets in a game. Last night he caught eight of nine looks for 98 yards. There's nothing fluke-ish about it. Woods was an early third-round draft pick for a reason.
That said, he's more valuable in dynasty than in re-draft. Matt Ryan generally cannot feed more than two receivers per game. Campbell took a backseat in this one, and Alec Pierce--despite getting targeted on Ryan's first pass after seeing eight looks last weekend--posted a goose egg. The Colts entered this past week second-to-last in points per game. For Woods to be streamable going forward, Ryan would need to transform into someone he no longer is.
Back to Taylor: a lot of fantasay surely are relieved that he had another good outing. Hopefully the injury bug is past him and he can finish strong. However . . . he closed the night with only 19 rushing yards on his last eight carries. Notably, in his previous game after losing a fumble late (his third in five games), he rushed three times for only three yards and was replaced by Deon Jackson on the final drive in a one-point loss.
So let's keep this in our back pocket. As incredible as Taylor is, there are some concerns, especially as these games wear on. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry in the second half as a rookie in 2020, and then 6.2 in the second half last season. This year it's 5.1. Still incredible. But factor in the fumbles and weaker offense (fewer scoring opportunities), and we can see how Taylor is a little more touchdown-dependent than we'd like to see.
For Pittsburgh, Najee exited early with an abdominal injury after getting mostly held in check (besides the TD) against a Colts D yielding the second-fewest yards per carry in the league (3.8). Then Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland combined for four runs of 8+ yards, and suddenly Indy looked a lot more like the Chargers.
Indy's defense was on the field for more than 34 minutes. Most of you know the context, but in case it's not as familiar, the Commanders lead all team this season with just under 33 minutes of offensive possession per game. Pittsburgh wore down one of the league's better D's on the road, and without their bell cow for the entire second half. The execution doesn't get much better than that.
I'm not putting much stock in the muted performances from George Pickens, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth. Two came very close to scoring. It simply didn't pan out. Against Atlanta next week, Pickett could hit 300+ total yards, and I'd start Pickens and Johnson with confidence as top-32 WRs, and Freiermuth as a top-14 TE. Week 15's home tilt against Vegas (for you playoff-bound managers) could be an ideal situation, especially if the 4-7 Steelers win two of their next three to remain mathematically in playoff contention.
As for the closest-score competition, many of you picked Pittsburgh in a minor upset, so congrats on getting that right (I got it wrong). Three of you were four points away from guessing the final score. But only one of you was three points away. Harley Swan? You're our big winner with a 21-17 prediction. Congratulations on your first win of the season.