Seems strange that earlier this season, Tom Brady lost five of six games, while Aaron Rodgers lost five straight. Yet they still might meet in the playoffs.
For the Packers, that scenario seemed unlikely a few day ago. They were 3-6 facing the 6-2 Cowboys, down 28-14 early in the fourth quarter. Last in the league in fourth-down conversions (20%), facing a 4th-and-7 and little choice but to go for it. Then a 39-yard TD pass to Christian Watson, and the comeback was on.
Green Bay's remaining schedule is brutal, including the Eagles, Vikings, and Dolphins. But they're in ninth place in the NFC. They've got a shot, and beating Tennessee tonight would put them squarely in the playoff picture. A loss, of course, would effectively knock them out; they'd need to run the table to go 10-7. Last year the NFL had five 9-8 teams. Only one reached the postseason.
So yeah, their season effectively is on the line tonight.
Making things tougher, Tennessee's run defense is among the league's best, yielding only 4.0 yards per carry (third-best in the NFL) and only two rushing scores (tops in the league). While I couldn't justify recommending benching Aaron Jones, he's in a rough spot coming off a 26-touch performance on Sunday. A few days ago I shared a little info on Sunday-to-Thursday regression rates. And the more Sunday touches, the steeper the average Thursday regression.
Where does that leave A.J. Dillon? Is it possible the Packers will limit Jones to 12-15 touches, giving Dillon 12+? Possibly. The problem is that he's not used as much in the passing game. So you'd be starting a TD-dependent RB against one of the stingiest run defenses.
I believe the Packers will get their points through the air. Tennessee is the second-most-passed-against team (365 attempts), which makes sense considering their run D. So I'm bullish about Rodgers, eyeing 19+ points and a decent shot at 23+. Watson seems like an obvious must-start, even though it fees like chasing points. But can anyone bench a starter coming off a three-TD performance?
I'm comfortable betting on 11+ points for Allen Lazard. The rest is a crapshoot. Randall Cobb might return, which doesn't matter much in fantasy. But between him and Sammy Watkins (and even Robert Tonyan), there's a slight concern that Rodgers could spread it around. Still, if you have Rodgers or Watson or Lazard, they all seem startable to me. Consider that there are four teams on bye, and the Bills-Browns game could become a run-fest in blizzard conditions. So if you don't have a must-start player at QB or one of your WR slots, at least you're getting a great ceiling from each of these guys.
For the Titans, let's keep it simple. As always, the offense runs through Derrick Henry. I'm deeply concerned about his durability. He leads the league in rushing attempts (something he did two of the previous three seasons). But the team has no better option than to keep running him. Maybe Dontrell Hilliard gets 6-8 touches.
Through the air, I'd be shocked if Ryan Tannehill passes for more than 180 yards. First-round rookie Treylon Burks has the highest ceiling among receivers and is a good top-40 option. I know, not exciting. He's like Drake London to me. Talented, but we won't see just how talented for another year or two.
Final score prediction: Packers 26-19. Leave your prediction below, or questions, or feedback, or friendly complaints.
For the Packers, that scenario seemed unlikely a few day ago. They were 3-6 facing the 6-2 Cowboys, down 28-14 early in the fourth quarter. Last in the league in fourth-down conversions (20%), facing a 4th-and-7 and little choice but to go for it. Then a 39-yard TD pass to Christian Watson, and the comeback was on.
Green Bay's remaining schedule is brutal, including the Eagles, Vikings, and Dolphins. But they're in ninth place in the NFC. They've got a shot, and beating Tennessee tonight would put them squarely in the playoff picture. A loss, of course, would effectively knock them out; they'd need to run the table to go 10-7. Last year the NFL had five 9-8 teams. Only one reached the postseason.
So yeah, their season effectively is on the line tonight.
Making things tougher, Tennessee's run defense is among the league's best, yielding only 4.0 yards per carry (third-best in the NFL) and only two rushing scores (tops in the league). While I couldn't justify recommending benching Aaron Jones, he's in a rough spot coming off a 26-touch performance on Sunday. A few days ago I shared a little info on Sunday-to-Thursday regression rates. And the more Sunday touches, the steeper the average Thursday regression.
Where does that leave A.J. Dillon? Is it possible the Packers will limit Jones to 12-15 touches, giving Dillon 12+? Possibly. The problem is that he's not used as much in the passing game. So you'd be starting a TD-dependent RB against one of the stingiest run defenses.
I believe the Packers will get their points through the air. Tennessee is the second-most-passed-against team (365 attempts), which makes sense considering their run D. So I'm bullish about Rodgers, eyeing 19+ points and a decent shot at 23+. Watson seems like an obvious must-start, even though it fees like chasing points. But can anyone bench a starter coming off a three-TD performance?
I'm comfortable betting on 11+ points for Allen Lazard. The rest is a crapshoot. Randall Cobb might return, which doesn't matter much in fantasy. But between him and Sammy Watkins (and even Robert Tonyan), there's a slight concern that Rodgers could spread it around. Still, if you have Rodgers or Watson or Lazard, they all seem startable to me. Consider that there are four teams on bye, and the Bills-Browns game could become a run-fest in blizzard conditions. So if you don't have a must-start player at QB or one of your WR slots, at least you're getting a great ceiling from each of these guys.
For the Titans, let's keep it simple. As always, the offense runs through Derrick Henry. I'm deeply concerned about his durability. He leads the league in rushing attempts (something he did two of the previous three seasons). But the team has no better option than to keep running him. Maybe Dontrell Hilliard gets 6-8 touches.
Through the air, I'd be shocked if Ryan Tannehill passes for more than 180 yards. First-round rookie Treylon Burks has the highest ceiling among receivers and is a good top-40 option. I know, not exciting. He's like Drake London to me. Talented, but we won't see just how talented for another year or two.
Final score prediction: Packers 26-19. Leave your prediction below, or questions, or feedback, or friendly complaints.