Losing Rondale Moore on the first offensive play was a rough start. And for those of you started him hoping to pull out the victory, dang.
It reminds me of a popular question, where you have the lead with one player left. Do you start him? Or is it safer to bench him and hope some random scoring change doesn't reverse your win? In pretty much any situation, I recommend starting the player. The only exception is where you're up six or fewer points and you have a DST, assuming minus-6 is the worst you can get with a DFS. Because strange things happen.
But starting Moore up, say, half a point? Honestly, if someone had asked me yesterday morning, I would have said something like "The odds of him catching a pass for less than six yards, then fumbling, and then getting knocked out of the game on the play . . . it's 1,000-to-1 odds. Probably 10,000-to-1. What are the chances that your player has the worst possible outing at the worst time?
So if you started Moore last night--and lost because of it--I'd like to hear about it. And if you lost *because* he lost six yards on the opening carry (seriously, when does a receiver carry the ball on the first play of the game?), giving him minus-0.6 points, then I'd *really* like to hear about it. You have my eternal sympathy.
Actually, my boss was down four points with Mike Williams and Kadarius Toney remaining. Some of you might have been in similar boats. Two weeks after losing by 0.6 points, I lost yesterday by 2.7. When we win, it doesn't matter how we won. When we lose, we lose 50 different ways. In a close loss, one of those ways breaking differently . . . that's the difference.
As far as takeaways from yesterday's game, Christian McCaffrey is still the bell cow; he would have netted more than 14 touches in closer game. And Elijah Mitchell is a TD-dependent RB, in the vein of Isiah Pacheco. A good bet for five points, and a below 50/50 bet for 10+.
The Cards have one of the league's worst defenses, period, so it's hard to draw too many overarching conclusions. But I do think this is a great sell-high moment with Deebo Samuel. It's a more crowded offense compared to last year. It really depends what you could get. He entered the night ranked 23rd in WR fantay points per game. Some quick math shows he's now 18th. CMC is poaching targets in ways Mitchell or Jeff Wilson never could. If I could receive top-16 WR value for Deebo, I would.
As for Arizona, they're stuck with James Conner until March 2025. He'd be the right fit if everyone were healthy and the defense were at least middling. Based on how he profiled out of college, he's overachieved in the NFL, and more power to him. He's obviously deserved all of it. But as fantasy managers, we should be concerned with his anemic 3.8 yards per carry, his lack of TD opportunities, and how he's broken only one tackle on 82 carries--easily one of the league's worst marks, and shocking when compared to his 36 broken tackles across the previous two seasons.
I'd cut bait ASAP. We might see more from rookie Keaontay Ingram next week against the Chargers, or else after the team's Week 13 bye. At 4-7, they're nearing "lost season" territory. I wouldn't want to lean on Conner in the fantasy playoffs, when he might not be anything close to a bell cow.
Finally, a huge congratulations to Scott Delude for winning the cloest-score competition. He guessed 28-10 Niners, beating out Tom Windedahl Jr. by one point. This marks Scott's second victory of the season, which is one more than the Texans have. So Scott is better than the Texans. And honestly, who could disagree.
It reminds me of a popular question, where you have the lead with one player left. Do you start him? Or is it safer to bench him and hope some random scoring change doesn't reverse your win? In pretty much any situation, I recommend starting the player. The only exception is where you're up six or fewer points and you have a DST, assuming minus-6 is the worst you can get with a DFS. Because strange things happen.
But starting Moore up, say, half a point? Honestly, if someone had asked me yesterday morning, I would have said something like "The odds of him catching a pass for less than six yards, then fumbling, and then getting knocked out of the game on the play . . . it's 1,000-to-1 odds. Probably 10,000-to-1. What are the chances that your player has the worst possible outing at the worst time?
So if you started Moore last night--and lost because of it--I'd like to hear about it. And if you lost *because* he lost six yards on the opening carry (seriously, when does a receiver carry the ball on the first play of the game?), giving him minus-0.6 points, then I'd *really* like to hear about it. You have my eternal sympathy.
Actually, my boss was down four points with Mike Williams and Kadarius Toney remaining. Some of you might have been in similar boats. Two weeks after losing by 0.6 points, I lost yesterday by 2.7. When we win, it doesn't matter how we won. When we lose, we lose 50 different ways. In a close loss, one of those ways breaking differently . . . that's the difference.
As far as takeaways from yesterday's game, Christian McCaffrey is still the bell cow; he would have netted more than 14 touches in closer game. And Elijah Mitchell is a TD-dependent RB, in the vein of Isiah Pacheco. A good bet for five points, and a below 50/50 bet for 10+.
The Cards have one of the league's worst defenses, period, so it's hard to draw too many overarching conclusions. But I do think this is a great sell-high moment with Deebo Samuel. It's a more crowded offense compared to last year. It really depends what you could get. He entered the night ranked 23rd in WR fantay points per game. Some quick math shows he's now 18th. CMC is poaching targets in ways Mitchell or Jeff Wilson never could. If I could receive top-16 WR value for Deebo, I would.
As for Arizona, they're stuck with James Conner until March 2025. He'd be the right fit if everyone were healthy and the defense were at least middling. Based on how he profiled out of college, he's overachieved in the NFL, and more power to him. He's obviously deserved all of it. But as fantasy managers, we should be concerned with his anemic 3.8 yards per carry, his lack of TD opportunities, and how he's broken only one tackle on 82 carries--easily one of the league's worst marks, and shocking when compared to his 36 broken tackles across the previous two seasons.
I'd cut bait ASAP. We might see more from rookie Keaontay Ingram next week against the Chargers, or else after the team's Week 13 bye. At 4-7, they're nearing "lost season" territory. I wouldn't want to lean on Conner in the fantasy playoffs, when he might not be anything close to a bell cow.
Finally, a huge congratulations to Scott Delude for winning the cloest-score competition. He guessed 28-10 Niners, beating out Tom Windedahl Jr. by one point. This marks Scott's second victory of the season, which is one more than the Texans have. So Scott is better than the Texans. And honestly, who could disagree.