I love fantasy football because it's about predicting outcomes based on stats and human behavior. If these players were robots, we could focus purely on the stats. (And sure, if they were sentient robots, we'd have to track their behavior. And if they started getting out of hand, we'd probably need to destroy them before they turned on us. And then we wouldn't have time for fantasy football.)
Tonight's rematch of the thrilling (it actually was thrilling) Week 8 battle between the Falcons and Panthers could be just as exciting. Statistically, there's a lot to unpack. The Panthers' running game has looked good, and sometimes downright incredible, since they traded Christian McCaffrey. D.J. Moore has looked like an automatic weekly starter, while Terrace Marshall has more than filled the vacuum left by Robbie Anderson.
Meanwhile, Atlanta's three-man backfield looks poised to lead an offense with no substantial passing attack. The Falcons are winning despite averaging the third-fewest passing yards per game. They'll probably keep doing this as long as it's working. And they're facing a Panthers team that's last in the NFL in offensive time of possession (only 25:30 per game). Atlanta's 4.8 yards per carry should come in handy tonight, as they work to move the chains and gradually wear down the opposing D.
But the Panthers might be able to one-up them, particularly if they can maintain a lead that forces Atlanta to abandon (or at least lessen) the run game. And Carolina's secret weapon might be the Falcons' defense, which has surrendered exactly 300 passing yards per game.
I checked 2021, 2020, . . . all the way back to 1970. No other team in the past 52 years has given up 300 or more passing yards per game. Some have come close--even very close. And the further back I went (for obviously reasons), the less teams threw the ball. So presumably the Falcons have the worst pass defense in NFL history. And I expect the Panthers to play more aggressively to capitalize on this opening.
And that's where human behavior comes in. It might seem ridiculous, because it might *be* ridiculous. But I'm starting P.J. Walker this week over Justin Herbert. We have no idea if Keenan Allen will return, and Herbert and his receivers struggled to move the ball last weekend against these same Falcons. I can't envision Herbert playing better in San Francisco. Maybe his ceiling is around 16 point. His floor might be eight or nine points.
I don't have many QBs to choose from in the 14-team Premier Fantasy Football Laague. So I'm betting on a quarterback with everything and nothing to lose.
The Panthers benched Walker in Cincinnati. He was terrible. The Bengals played inspired ball. Bad combination. But he's earned another start tonight--maybe his final start of the season, or maybe even his career. After all, he was the fourth-string option heading into this year. He wasn't supposed to see the field.
Walker's playing for a backup role in 2023. He has a solid pass-catching backfield and two good-to-great wideouts, as well as a couple capable tight ends. And I don't think he'll settle for just passing. He averaged seven rushing attempts per game in college. Didn't do much with that volume. But it's one of his attributes as a sub-par dual-threat QB. And he rushed for nine scores, so I wouldn't be surprised if he ran one in this evening.
Starting him is incredibly risky. Possibly stupid. But I'm following the data, as well as human behavior. With his career on the line, and in a nearly ideal matchup, I believe Walker will rise to the occasion, making it difficult for Carolina to turn to Sam Darnold in Week 11.
I'm all in on him, Moore, and D'Onta Foreman tonight. Marshall is a solid streamer with great upside if I'm right about Walker. Kyle Pitts is mini-boom-bust. Tyler Allgeier is the only RB with 75+ carries who hasn't yet broken a tackle, and his passing-game usage has been spotty at best. So has Cordarrelle Patterson's, who seems more TD-dependent than ever.
Final score prediction: Panthers win 33-23. Leave your prediction below, and any questions or feedback you've got.
Tonight's rematch of the thrilling (it actually was thrilling) Week 8 battle between the Falcons and Panthers could be just as exciting. Statistically, there's a lot to unpack. The Panthers' running game has looked good, and sometimes downright incredible, since they traded Christian McCaffrey. D.J. Moore has looked like an automatic weekly starter, while Terrace Marshall has more than filled the vacuum left by Robbie Anderson.
Meanwhile, Atlanta's three-man backfield looks poised to lead an offense with no substantial passing attack. The Falcons are winning despite averaging the third-fewest passing yards per game. They'll probably keep doing this as long as it's working. And they're facing a Panthers team that's last in the NFL in offensive time of possession (only 25:30 per game). Atlanta's 4.8 yards per carry should come in handy tonight, as they work to move the chains and gradually wear down the opposing D.
But the Panthers might be able to one-up them, particularly if they can maintain a lead that forces Atlanta to abandon (or at least lessen) the run game. And Carolina's secret weapon might be the Falcons' defense, which has surrendered exactly 300 passing yards per game.
I checked 2021, 2020, . . . all the way back to 1970. No other team in the past 52 years has given up 300 or more passing yards per game. Some have come close--even very close. And the further back I went (for obviously reasons), the less teams threw the ball. So presumably the Falcons have the worst pass defense in NFL history. And I expect the Panthers to play more aggressively to capitalize on this opening.
And that's where human behavior comes in. It might seem ridiculous, because it might *be* ridiculous. But I'm starting P.J. Walker this week over Justin Herbert. We have no idea if Keenan Allen will return, and Herbert and his receivers struggled to move the ball last weekend against these same Falcons. I can't envision Herbert playing better in San Francisco. Maybe his ceiling is around 16 point. His floor might be eight or nine points.
I don't have many QBs to choose from in the 14-team Premier Fantasy Football Laague. So I'm betting on a quarterback with everything and nothing to lose.
The Panthers benched Walker in Cincinnati. He was terrible. The Bengals played inspired ball. Bad combination. But he's earned another start tonight--maybe his final start of the season, or maybe even his career. After all, he was the fourth-string option heading into this year. He wasn't supposed to see the field.
Walker's playing for a backup role in 2023. He has a solid pass-catching backfield and two good-to-great wideouts, as well as a couple capable tight ends. And I don't think he'll settle for just passing. He averaged seven rushing attempts per game in college. Didn't do much with that volume. But it's one of his attributes as a sub-par dual-threat QB. And he rushed for nine scores, so I wouldn't be surprised if he ran one in this evening.
Starting him is incredibly risky. Possibly stupid. But I'm following the data, as well as human behavior. With his career on the line, and in a nearly ideal matchup, I believe Walker will rise to the occasion, making it difficult for Carolina to turn to Sam Darnold in Week 11.
I'm all in on him, Moore, and D'Onta Foreman tonight. Marshall is a solid streamer with great upside if I'm right about Walker. Kyle Pitts is mini-boom-bust. Tyler Allgeier is the only RB with 75+ carries who hasn't yet broken a tackle, and his passing-game usage has been spotty at best. So has Cordarrelle Patterson's, who seems more TD-dependent than ever.
Final score prediction: Panthers win 33-23. Leave your prediction below, and any questions or feedback you've got.