Jameis Winston must not be the answer in New Orleans. Neither is Taysom Hill. Because if there were a time to replace Andy Dalton, it would have been last night. What do the Saints have to lose? They're 3-6 and clinging to postseason contention, even in the weak NFC South.
In 2016, 42% of Dalton's passing yards were after the catch. That jumped to 51% in 2017, and then stabilized at 45% in his final two years with the Bengals. There's nothing wrong with QBs benefitting from yards after catch. But for low-volume QBs, to me it seems indicative of an over-reliance on dump-offs.
For example, in 2013, Chad Henne led all starters with 57.5% of his passing yards coming after the catch (YAC). Sam Bradford was next with a 55.5% YAC, followed by the still-unheralded Alex Smith (55.4%) and Jason Campbell (53.1%). All of them leaned moderately-to-heavily on their backfields, including Smith targeting Jamaal Charles more than 100 times. Terrelle Pryor (#6 in YAC among QBs) combined with Matt McGloin and Matt Flynn in Oakland to feed their RBs an incredible 143 targets.
But Andrew Luck was #5 on the YAC list at 52.7%, and other big names followed shortly thereafter. They were great *and* they benefitted from playmakers.
So back to Dalton. In a 24-0 drubbing of the Raiders last weekend, 42% of his passing yards came on dump-offs to Alvin Kamara. It's easy to estimate that his YAC was about 50% in a game where he arguably should have been more dominant. And last night we saw what happens when the Kamara Factor is largely neutralized. He had 118 scoreless passing yards heading into his final drive, and then Baltimore played soft in a blowout as the clock ran down.
This matters for fantasy because Chris Olave probably could be a top-10 WR in another offense, and either Marquez Callaway or Tre'Quan Smith would be streamable. But as long as Dalton is at the helm, this will remain a mostly two-player fantasy unit, with the occasional big-play opportunity for low-volume guys like Juwan Johnson.
For Baltimore, Lamar Jackson connected with eight of his players in the first half in what had to be a frustrating evening for some managers. Isaiah Likely caught only one pass, but it was the one that mattered most. He also led the team in targets. And Kenyan Drake fought through a slow start, persevered, and benefitted from a couple goal-line touches.
If you have Drake, this is the time to sell high. As I shared on PFN's website yesterday, he entered the game averaging 4.1 yards before contact, #2 among all RBs. But his 1.0 yards after contact placed him near the bottom. Also, he had yet to break a tackle on 49 carries--one of only four RBs with 30+ carries with no broken tackles.
I don't yet have the micro data on this latest outing. But Drake wasn't good enough to stick around the now 2-6 Raiders. Clearly, the Raiders made an error. At the same time, Drake seems unlikely to sustain these fantasy numbers. His advanced stats suggest TD-dependency and yardage regressions. When Gus Edwards returns, Drake might be no better than a deep-league streamer. If you can get top-25 RB value now, I'd take it.
Finally, the closest-score competition has two winners: Justin Koplin and Joseph Ehrlich. Both predicted a 27-17 Ravens victory. Justin is a lifelong Jets fan, so he news of his victory surely is the icing on the cake of a fantastic Week 9. And Joseph . . . I don't know what team you like, Joseph. But hopefully they won or were on a bye.
Congrats to both of you, and everyone have a great Tuesday.
In 2016, 42% of Dalton's passing yards were after the catch. That jumped to 51% in 2017, and then stabilized at 45% in his final two years with the Bengals. There's nothing wrong with QBs benefitting from yards after catch. But for low-volume QBs, to me it seems indicative of an over-reliance on dump-offs.
For example, in 2013, Chad Henne led all starters with 57.5% of his passing yards coming after the catch (YAC). Sam Bradford was next with a 55.5% YAC, followed by the still-unheralded Alex Smith (55.4%) and Jason Campbell (53.1%). All of them leaned moderately-to-heavily on their backfields, including Smith targeting Jamaal Charles more than 100 times. Terrelle Pryor (#6 in YAC among QBs) combined with Matt McGloin and Matt Flynn in Oakland to feed their RBs an incredible 143 targets.
But Andrew Luck was #5 on the YAC list at 52.7%, and other big names followed shortly thereafter. They were great *and* they benefitted from playmakers.
So back to Dalton. In a 24-0 drubbing of the Raiders last weekend, 42% of his passing yards came on dump-offs to Alvin Kamara. It's easy to estimate that his YAC was about 50% in a game where he arguably should have been more dominant. And last night we saw what happens when the Kamara Factor is largely neutralized. He had 118 scoreless passing yards heading into his final drive, and then Baltimore played soft in a blowout as the clock ran down.
This matters for fantasy because Chris Olave probably could be a top-10 WR in another offense, and either Marquez Callaway or Tre'Quan Smith would be streamable. But as long as Dalton is at the helm, this will remain a mostly two-player fantasy unit, with the occasional big-play opportunity for low-volume guys like Juwan Johnson.
For Baltimore, Lamar Jackson connected with eight of his players in the first half in what had to be a frustrating evening for some managers. Isaiah Likely caught only one pass, but it was the one that mattered most. He also led the team in targets. And Kenyan Drake fought through a slow start, persevered, and benefitted from a couple goal-line touches.
If you have Drake, this is the time to sell high. As I shared on PFN's website yesterday, he entered the game averaging 4.1 yards before contact, #2 among all RBs. But his 1.0 yards after contact placed him near the bottom. Also, he had yet to break a tackle on 49 carries--one of only four RBs with 30+ carries with no broken tackles.
I don't yet have the micro data on this latest outing. But Drake wasn't good enough to stick around the now 2-6 Raiders. Clearly, the Raiders made an error. At the same time, Drake seems unlikely to sustain these fantasy numbers. His advanced stats suggest TD-dependency and yardage regressions. When Gus Edwards returns, Drake might be no better than a deep-league streamer. If you can get top-25 RB value now, I'd take it.
Finally, the closest-score competition has two winners: Justin Koplin and Joseph Ehrlich. Both predicted a 27-17 Ravens victory. Justin is a lifelong Jets fan, so he news of his victory surely is the icing on the cake of a fantastic Week 9. And Joseph . . . I don't know what team you like, Joseph. But hopefully they won or were on a bye.
Congrats to both of you, and everyone have a great Tuesday.