We're at the midpoint of the season. Nine weeks down, and nine weeks to go starting tomorrow.
We're also getting closer to the point when some teams will be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, while others brace for the near-inevitable.
So what are some of the possibly fantasy implications for these teams? Let's start with the 2-6 Raiders. They've got the Colts and Broncos up next. Their defense isn't very good, period. They can't realisically win the AFC West. Two more losses, and they're probably toast. One more loss, and they're as good as toast. Josh Jacobs will be a free agent after this season.
So at what point will they see what they have in Zamir White, their fourth-round rookie who dropped in the draft because of injury concerns? Vegas didn't draft him to sit on the sidelines his first two seasons. And frankly, Jacobs would have nothing to play for and everything to lose later this season. He's in line for a big payday. A season-ending injury could cost him millions in his last, best shot at a huge contract.
So keep an eye on the Raiders this weekend. If they countinue to flounder, we might see more of White and/or maybe even seventh-round rookie Brittain Brown. One of those two could be the 2023 starter of a unit looking to bolster its defense in the draft and field a playoff contender in 2023.
The 2-6 Steelers are another team looking to 2023. Trading Chase Claypool made sense. Trotting out Najee Harris as their starter probably doesn't, at least not this season. Harris has another two years on his rookie contract. Surely he can get back on track next year, assuming the team improves its o-line. But for now, I think they've got to see what they have in Jaylen Warren, who could get double-digit touches by Thanksgiving if they lose a couple more games--if not before then.
And yet another 2-6 team, the Lions. High hopes, but for the second straight season, too many injuries to key offensive players. The biggest question I have is whether they'll work D'Andre Swift deep into the season. Seems unlikely given how injury-prone he's been. It's not just about missing 10 games in two-and-a-half seasons. It's also about all the times he's played with true questionable tags--when he clearly wasn't close to full strength.
Jamaal Williams remains as valuable as ever, even if his production wanes if Swift returns to his customary near-bellcow workload. The Lions might also give Justin Jackson or Craig Reynolds some late-season work as they gauge whether one of them can be their #2 or #3 RB next season. Williams will be a free agent in March, and I'm betting a more RB-needy team will out-bid Detroit, though they might be willing to pay him if they're ready to let Swift walk after his contract expires in early 2024.
One more team to highlight: the 3-6 Bears. They've still got a legit shot at the playoffs, though downgrading at defense before the trade deadline suggested they're readying their cap space for next season. David Montgomery will sign somewhere this offseason, and given his injury woes this year and last, I doubt Chicago will give him a multi-year deal. Anticipating several teams would take him on for 2-3 years, even as a split-time RB (though he might try to hold out for starter money).
But Chicago already knows what they have in Khalil Herbert. So my focus is on sixth-round rookie Trestan Ebner, who has a clear path to spot starts during the fantasy playoffs if the Bears are mathematically eliminated. Herbert has a great shot at being next year's Week 1 starter. If they play things cautiously, they'll want to see if Ebner could be a capable #2, or if they'll need to draft/sign someone else next spring.
We're also getting closer to the point when some teams will be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, while others brace for the near-inevitable.
So what are some of the possibly fantasy implications for these teams? Let's start with the 2-6 Raiders. They've got the Colts and Broncos up next. Their defense isn't very good, period. They can't realisically win the AFC West. Two more losses, and they're probably toast. One more loss, and they're as good as toast. Josh Jacobs will be a free agent after this season.
So at what point will they see what they have in Zamir White, their fourth-round rookie who dropped in the draft because of injury concerns? Vegas didn't draft him to sit on the sidelines his first two seasons. And frankly, Jacobs would have nothing to play for and everything to lose later this season. He's in line for a big payday. A season-ending injury could cost him millions in his last, best shot at a huge contract.
So keep an eye on the Raiders this weekend. If they countinue to flounder, we might see more of White and/or maybe even seventh-round rookie Brittain Brown. One of those two could be the 2023 starter of a unit looking to bolster its defense in the draft and field a playoff contender in 2023.
The 2-6 Steelers are another team looking to 2023. Trading Chase Claypool made sense. Trotting out Najee Harris as their starter probably doesn't, at least not this season. Harris has another two years on his rookie contract. Surely he can get back on track next year, assuming the team improves its o-line. But for now, I think they've got to see what they have in Jaylen Warren, who could get double-digit touches by Thanksgiving if they lose a couple more games--if not before then.
And yet another 2-6 team, the Lions. High hopes, but for the second straight season, too many injuries to key offensive players. The biggest question I have is whether they'll work D'Andre Swift deep into the season. Seems unlikely given how injury-prone he's been. It's not just about missing 10 games in two-and-a-half seasons. It's also about all the times he's played with true questionable tags--when he clearly wasn't close to full strength.
Jamaal Williams remains as valuable as ever, even if his production wanes if Swift returns to his customary near-bellcow workload. The Lions might also give Justin Jackson or Craig Reynolds some late-season work as they gauge whether one of them can be their #2 or #3 RB next season. Williams will be a free agent in March, and I'm betting a more RB-needy team will out-bid Detroit, though they might be willing to pay him if they're ready to let Swift walk after his contract expires in early 2024.
One more team to highlight: the 3-6 Bears. They've still got a legit shot at the playoffs, though downgrading at defense before the trade deadline suggested they're readying their cap space for next season. David Montgomery will sign somewhere this offseason, and given his injury woes this year and last, I doubt Chicago will give him a multi-year deal. Anticipating several teams would take him on for 2-3 years, even as a split-time RB (though he might try to hold out for starter money).
But Chicago already knows what they have in Khalil Herbert. So my focus is on sixth-round rookie Trestan Ebner, who has a clear path to spot starts during the fantasy playoffs if the Bears are mathematically eliminated. Herbert has a great shot at being next year's Week 1 starter. If they play things cautiously, they'll want to see if Ebner could be a capable #2, or if they'll need to draft/sign someone else next spring.