A lot of NFL trades yesterday right before the deadline. Here are my takeaways on how each might impact player values.
Jeff Wilson to the Dolphins -- Pretty huge. I think this is bad news for those with the aged Raheem Mostert. The Dolphins will need Mostert for the playoffs (if they get there). Wilson is a good RB and a clear upgrade over the departing Chase Edmonds. He's averaging an impressive 5.1 yards per carry one year after recovering from a serious injury. Do not sleep on him. I'd be bullish about Wilson as a higher-than-50/50-probability spot starter during the fantasy playoffs, and he could be a league winner if he gets a little more attention in the passing game. Mostert is a hold-and-hope--or trade him to whoever has Wilson and get as much in return as you can.
This deal opens the door for an eventually returning Elijah Mitchell to serve as a glorified handcuff behind CMC.
Chase Edmonds to the Broncos -- This backfield was crowded enough. Now it's untenable from a fantasy perspective, unless Edmonds completely flops, as he did in Miami. At best, Edmonds could be the lead back in a tired-looking RB corps. At worst, he'll fill in behind Gordon and Murray when the team returns in Week 10, and then gradually transition into a hot-hand option.
Nyheim Hines to the Bills -- Hines has never profiled as a bell cow. It keeps Devin Singletary front-and-center as the lead back. But it also threatens the PPR value of Singletary, who's averaging the 13th most RB receptions per game. Hines has been painfully underutilized in Indy the past one-and-a-half seasons. Hines has averaged eight touches the past two weeks, which perhaps helped show him off to trade partners. Of course, Jonathan Taylor's injury also contributed to Hines' increased usage. Regardless, it'll be interesting to see if Hines leapfrogs rookie James Cook, or if the Bills employ all three.
Zack Moss to the Colts -- Not much to say. A downgrade for Indy, presumably because Deon Jackson proved he's a more-than-capable handcuff to Taylor. Moss might play elsewhere as the #3 or #4 RB by next season. At best, he'll push for 3-4 touches a game this year.
Chase Claypool to the Bears -- Why didn't Chicago add a receiver this offseason? And Byron Pringle doesn't count. It seems like a silly move to me, unless Chicago can hand Claypool a team-friendly extension that would keep him in town through 2025 or 2026. This is bad news for managers with Claypool and worse news for managers with Darnell Mooney. In a run-friendly offense with a still-learning QB, Claypool seems like a fringe bench option in 10-team leagues. Maybe I'm completely wrong. Maybe he'll elevate Fields this season. But I don't see it.
This deal probably gives George Pickens the biggest bump. The values of Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth also improve. The Steelers apparently have thrown in the towel on this season. Pickens could be a top-16 WR next season if his and Kenny Pickett's rapid development continues.
T.J. Hockenson to the Vikings -- Irv Smith is expected to miss most or all of the rest of the regular season. The Vikings have a window to make a strong playoff push. Hockenson is an immediate TE upgrade with massive upside in a more functional (i.e. healthier and more experienced) offense. Hock should see marginally increased upside in a more sustainably potent offense. It's also a boon for Kirk Cousins. It shouldn't dramatically alter the values of Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen. This is potentially a "rising tide lifts all boats" situation. And with Buffalo and Dallas looming, Hockenson was a needed addition.
This deal might make Detroit rookie James Mitchell a top-24 TE the rest of the way. As with most rookie tight ends, his weekly usage is up in the air. When the Lions get healthier, it'll be even more unpredictable. For now, he could get 3-4 targets as Detroit sees what they have in him.
And Calvin Ridley is headed to Jacksonville, where he'll hope to revive his career after the NFL lifts his suspension, ideally as soon as 2023. It was a brilliant trade for Atlanta, who might need until 2024 to have a QB who can feed more than two "great" receiving talents (and they already have two often underutilized "great" receiving talents). Certain outcomes can increase the price of this trade, giving Atlanta anywhere from a sixth-round pick to a second-rounder. A third- or fourth-round pick is most likely. And for you dynasty folks, Christian Kirk would lose some luster, and Zay Jones would lose even more, if some semblance of the "Ridley of old" returns next season. And obviously, those rostering Trevor Lawrence in dynasty should be feeling pretty good.
Jeff Wilson to the Dolphins -- Pretty huge. I think this is bad news for those with the aged Raheem Mostert. The Dolphins will need Mostert for the playoffs (if they get there). Wilson is a good RB and a clear upgrade over the departing Chase Edmonds. He's averaging an impressive 5.1 yards per carry one year after recovering from a serious injury. Do not sleep on him. I'd be bullish about Wilson as a higher-than-50/50-probability spot starter during the fantasy playoffs, and he could be a league winner if he gets a little more attention in the passing game. Mostert is a hold-and-hope--or trade him to whoever has Wilson and get as much in return as you can.
This deal opens the door for an eventually returning Elijah Mitchell to serve as a glorified handcuff behind CMC.
Chase Edmonds to the Broncos -- This backfield was crowded enough. Now it's untenable from a fantasy perspective, unless Edmonds completely flops, as he did in Miami. At best, Edmonds could be the lead back in a tired-looking RB corps. At worst, he'll fill in behind Gordon and Murray when the team returns in Week 10, and then gradually transition into a hot-hand option.
Nyheim Hines to the Bills -- Hines has never profiled as a bell cow. It keeps Devin Singletary front-and-center as the lead back. But it also threatens the PPR value of Singletary, who's averaging the 13th most RB receptions per game. Hines has been painfully underutilized in Indy the past one-and-a-half seasons. Hines has averaged eight touches the past two weeks, which perhaps helped show him off to trade partners. Of course, Jonathan Taylor's injury also contributed to Hines' increased usage. Regardless, it'll be interesting to see if Hines leapfrogs rookie James Cook, or if the Bills employ all three.
Zack Moss to the Colts -- Not much to say. A downgrade for Indy, presumably because Deon Jackson proved he's a more-than-capable handcuff to Taylor. Moss might play elsewhere as the #3 or #4 RB by next season. At best, he'll push for 3-4 touches a game this year.
Chase Claypool to the Bears -- Why didn't Chicago add a receiver this offseason? And Byron Pringle doesn't count. It seems like a silly move to me, unless Chicago can hand Claypool a team-friendly extension that would keep him in town through 2025 or 2026. This is bad news for managers with Claypool and worse news for managers with Darnell Mooney. In a run-friendly offense with a still-learning QB, Claypool seems like a fringe bench option in 10-team leagues. Maybe I'm completely wrong. Maybe he'll elevate Fields this season. But I don't see it.
This deal probably gives George Pickens the biggest bump. The values of Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth also improve. The Steelers apparently have thrown in the towel on this season. Pickens could be a top-16 WR next season if his and Kenny Pickett's rapid development continues.
T.J. Hockenson to the Vikings -- Irv Smith is expected to miss most or all of the rest of the regular season. The Vikings have a window to make a strong playoff push. Hockenson is an immediate TE upgrade with massive upside in a more functional (i.e. healthier and more experienced) offense. Hock should see marginally increased upside in a more sustainably potent offense. It's also a boon for Kirk Cousins. It shouldn't dramatically alter the values of Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen. This is potentially a "rising tide lifts all boats" situation. And with Buffalo and Dallas looming, Hockenson was a needed addition.
This deal might make Detroit rookie James Mitchell a top-24 TE the rest of the way. As with most rookie tight ends, his weekly usage is up in the air. When the Lions get healthier, it'll be even more unpredictable. For now, he could get 3-4 targets as Detroit sees what they have in him.
And Calvin Ridley is headed to Jacksonville, where he'll hope to revive his career after the NFL lifts his suspension, ideally as soon as 2023. It was a brilliant trade for Atlanta, who might need until 2024 to have a QB who can feed more than two "great" receiving talents (and they already have two often underutilized "great" receiving talents). Certain outcomes can increase the price of this trade, giving Atlanta anywhere from a sixth-round pick to a second-rounder. A third- or fourth-round pick is most likely. And for you dynasty folks, Christian Kirk would lose some luster, and Zay Jones would lose even more, if some semblance of the "Ridley of old" returns next season. And obviously, those rostering Trevor Lawrence in dynasty should be feeling pretty good.