If you're a lock or near lock to make your fantasy playoffs, then if you haven't studied your players' schedule during that stretch, now's the time. And if you're still clawing for a playoff spot, your league's trade deadline might come at any moment. ESPN's default is today, I think at noon. So it might not be too late to negotiate something to help you win this week, even at the expensse of longer-term success. Because longer term doesn't matter so much if you don't even reach the postseason.
If you're a playoff hopeful, some players have brutal playoff schedules, and others of course have great ones. I wouldn't overthink it. Davante Adams dominated recently against the vaunted Broncos pass D. You never can tell when a matchup-focused strtegy falls flat.
That said, let's try to hit on a few key players at each offensive position, assuming a Week 15-17 playoff period, starting with the Dolphins. Their Week 15-17 schedule is @Bills, Packers, and @Patriots. No need to overly spell this out. Of course Miami's star players need to start, particularly Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Tua Tagovailoa could go either way, depending on who else you have. He's 9th in QB fantasy points per game. The challenge is that he's one of the league's least mobile quarterbacks. Buffalo and New England are top 5 in interceptions. It's not hard to envision Tua hitting 12-16 points rather than 20-24.
And if you have Jeff Wilson--supposing he's a 15+ touch RB even if Raheem Mostert is back--can you trust him in Buffalo and in New England? Not that those squads have dominated against the run. But consider the stakes of those games and how the Pats are (mostly) ascending with a very young defensive unit. The Packers are very beatable against the run. But I'd be concerned about starting Wilson as a top-20 RB in Weeks 15 and 17, even if he's the main guy.
The Jags also make me nervous; they're facing the Cowboys at home and then the Jets and Texans on the road. Dallas is middling against the run, but has surrendered only six rushing TDs. The Jets have one of the stingiest run D's. If you can make it to Week 17 *and* if Travis Etienne is still playing, congrats. But we shouldn't be surprised if Jacksonville shuts down their star RB by early January, especially given his injury history.
In the passing game, Christian Kirk and (as we saw last week) Zay Jones range somewhere between streamable and top 20. But WRs are scoring the 8th fewest fantasy points against the improved Houston secondary, and the third fewest against the Jets. With both of those games on the road, I would be incredibly hesitant to trust Jones, and I'd probably start Kirk as a top 24-30 option. Keep in mind, Kirk had only a 1-13 receiving line wheen he last faced the Texans.
On the plus side, the Jets have a fairly soft defensive schedule with home matchups against the Lions (most opposing QB fantasy points per game) and Jags (5th most). A road tilt in Seattle could be tougher, but not impossible for someone like Garrett Wilson to break through. So much depends on how Corey Davis and Elijah Moore are used down the stretch. For now, it looks like Wilson or bust.
If the Saints are still rolling with their starters, Alvin Kamara is primed for a strong finish. His three games are against Falcons, Browns, and Eagles. All three teams are yielding top-9 RB fantasy points. New Orleans is also a tough team to figure out down the stretch, because I don't envision them sticking with Andy Dalton, and Chris Olave is a candidate to pack it in if he develops any "lingering" ailment that might force this franchise to play it safe ahead of next season.
Again, there are still plenty of unknowns, and sometimes bad D's step up while great ones collapse. But there are some major green lights and red flags for various players, and it's worth monitoring in the next two weeks as you examine waiver adds that might set you up for the highest-realistic-upside playoff production.
If you're a playoff hopeful, some players have brutal playoff schedules, and others of course have great ones. I wouldn't overthink it. Davante Adams dominated recently against the vaunted Broncos pass D. You never can tell when a matchup-focused strtegy falls flat.
That said, let's try to hit on a few key players at each offensive position, assuming a Week 15-17 playoff period, starting with the Dolphins. Their Week 15-17 schedule is @Bills, Packers, and @Patriots. No need to overly spell this out. Of course Miami's star players need to start, particularly Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Tua Tagovailoa could go either way, depending on who else you have. He's 9th in QB fantasy points per game. The challenge is that he's one of the league's least mobile quarterbacks. Buffalo and New England are top 5 in interceptions. It's not hard to envision Tua hitting 12-16 points rather than 20-24.
And if you have Jeff Wilson--supposing he's a 15+ touch RB even if Raheem Mostert is back--can you trust him in Buffalo and in New England? Not that those squads have dominated against the run. But consider the stakes of those games and how the Pats are (mostly) ascending with a very young defensive unit. The Packers are very beatable against the run. But I'd be concerned about starting Wilson as a top-20 RB in Weeks 15 and 17, even if he's the main guy.
The Jags also make me nervous; they're facing the Cowboys at home and then the Jets and Texans on the road. Dallas is middling against the run, but has surrendered only six rushing TDs. The Jets have one of the stingiest run D's. If you can make it to Week 17 *and* if Travis Etienne is still playing, congrats. But we shouldn't be surprised if Jacksonville shuts down their star RB by early January, especially given his injury history.
In the passing game, Christian Kirk and (as we saw last week) Zay Jones range somewhere between streamable and top 20. But WRs are scoring the 8th fewest fantasy points against the improved Houston secondary, and the third fewest against the Jets. With both of those games on the road, I would be incredibly hesitant to trust Jones, and I'd probably start Kirk as a top 24-30 option. Keep in mind, Kirk had only a 1-13 receiving line wheen he last faced the Texans.
On the plus side, the Jets have a fairly soft defensive schedule with home matchups against the Lions (most opposing QB fantasy points per game) and Jags (5th most). A road tilt in Seattle could be tougher, but not impossible for someone like Garrett Wilson to break through. So much depends on how Corey Davis and Elijah Moore are used down the stretch. For now, it looks like Wilson or bust.
If the Saints are still rolling with their starters, Alvin Kamara is primed for a strong finish. His three games are against Falcons, Browns, and Eagles. All three teams are yielding top-9 RB fantasy points. New Orleans is also a tough team to figure out down the stretch, because I don't envision them sticking with Andy Dalton, and Chris Olave is a candidate to pack it in if he develops any "lingering" ailment that might force this franchise to play it safe ahead of next season.
Again, there are still plenty of unknowns, and sometimes bad D's step up while great ones collapse. But there are some major green lights and red flags for various players, and it's worth monitoring in the next two weeks as you examine waiver adds that might set you up for the highest-realistic-upside playoff production.