If you've read my columns since Wednesday, you know where I stand on a lot of players this week. Of course, there's chaos when it comes to guys like Darius Slayton (can he keep this up?), D'Andre Swift (how will Detroit utilize him?), Darrell Henderson (is he still the lead guy?), and any Houston WR.
In fact, there are varying degrees of choas surrounding nearly every player. Davante Adams is questionable. D.J. Chark is returning. And so on.
Here's what I do know: If you're starting a guy who should get you 20+ points, don't overthink it. If you're starting a player coming off an injury, his likely range of outcomes could be 4-to-18, or 2-to-10, or 5-to-22. Injured players are often riskier than normal in their first game back.
If you're debating starting an RB or WR or TE in your flex, all things being equal, I always go WR. Because historically, among these three positions, WRs have the best chance of scoring 20+ points. Why? Because they have more big-play ability.
Take last year, when Jonathan Taylor led all RBs with five 40+ yard rushes. No one else had more than two. But 30 WRs had more than two 40+ yard receptions. Yes, 30. Three WRs had nine apiece. That's a quick 5+ PPR points for nearly two WRs per week--many of them usually unstartable in fantasy. And actually some of those plays weree worth 11+ points with a TD.
Probabilities. That's it. That's all there is. (There's more, but I'm trying to make it sound dramatic.)
My final thoughts on this today: My RBs have been awful since Javonte Williams got hurt, and my insurance policy (Melvin Gordon) tanked. But my WRs are Davante Adams, CeeDee Lamb, Christian Kirk, and Garrett Wilson. Three top-8 WRs with 30+ point upside most weeks. Not that they hit 30+. But it's possible, and last week, it was more than just possible.
My WRs are keeping me afloat. So if you have the choice between Quez Watkins and Boston Scott, you know what I'd do. Doesn't mean it'll work in Week 11. But over the course of a season, barring depth-chart shifts, I still believe Watkins will be better than Scott. And that influences how I roll the dice when I'm desperate.
Good luck today.
In fact, there are varying degrees of choas surrounding nearly every player. Davante Adams is questionable. D.J. Chark is returning. And so on.
Here's what I do know: If you're starting a guy who should get you 20+ points, don't overthink it. If you're starting a player coming off an injury, his likely range of outcomes could be 4-to-18, or 2-to-10, or 5-to-22. Injured players are often riskier than normal in their first game back.
If you're debating starting an RB or WR or TE in your flex, all things being equal, I always go WR. Because historically, among these three positions, WRs have the best chance of scoring 20+ points. Why? Because they have more big-play ability.
Take last year, when Jonathan Taylor led all RBs with five 40+ yard rushes. No one else had more than two. But 30 WRs had more than two 40+ yard receptions. Yes, 30. Three WRs had nine apiece. That's a quick 5+ PPR points for nearly two WRs per week--many of them usually unstartable in fantasy. And actually some of those plays weree worth 11+ points with a TD.
Probabilities. That's it. That's all there is. (There's more, but I'm trying to make it sound dramatic.)
My final thoughts on this today: My RBs have been awful since Javonte Williams got hurt, and my insurance policy (Melvin Gordon) tanked. But my WRs are Davante Adams, CeeDee Lamb, Christian Kirk, and Garrett Wilson. Three top-8 WRs with 30+ point upside most weeks. Not that they hit 30+. But it's possible, and last week, it was more than just possible.
My WRs are keeping me afloat. So if you have the choice between Quez Watkins and Boston Scott, you know what I'd do. Doesn't mean it'll work in Week 11. But over the course of a season, barring depth-chart shifts, I still believe Watkins will be better than Scott. And that influences how I roll the dice when I'm desperate.
Good luck today.