With the holidays approaching and a lot of people distracted/traveling, I'll keep this brief. Tomorrow morning I'll share thoughts on the three Thanksgiving games, including some unconventional takes on D'Andre Swift, Saquon Barkley (you probably know what I'm going to say), and Damien Harris.
In the meantime, with the trade deadline approaching in a lot of fantassy leagues, one popular question is "If I offer Player A, who can I get in return?" Basically, what is that player's value?
Fair question, and there's never an absolute answer. I run through this for my players every week, throughout the week. When Eno Benjamin looked good filling in for James Conner, I actively tried to trade him before his value plummeted. Came close on a couple occasions. But in hindsight, I valued him a little too highly, thinking he'd get more spot starts later this season. Instead, now he's probably buried on Houston's depth chart.
The people who were at least "interested" in Eno needed RB help. I wasn't going to trade him to an opponent with four startable RBs, because what's in it for them, unless they also have Conner?
A player's value is the sweet spot between what we think he'ss worth, and what our opponents think he's worth. And no sweet spot is the same. Timing is everything. Tapping into an opponent's anxiety is everything. And not trying to get too much in return is, yes, everything.
So if you're looking to trade an extra WR while you still can, consider which of your opponents is most desperate. Don't offer Garrett Wilson for a top-20 RB. Last week? Maybe you could have gotten a top-28 RB, with Wilson coming off a big performance. But probably not this week, unless your opponent has to start K.J. Osborn and could use a higher-upside option.
In the end, we're talking about trade value *ranges*. Kenneth Walker might get you a top-10 WR, or if your opponent has two must-start RBs, maybe only a top 16-20 WR. And if Walker comes up huge this weekend, that might shift to top-8 and top 14-16, respectively.
That fluidity makes it really hard to trade in many leagues. But speaking for myself, if I know the minimum I'd take in return, I'm able to make a much more confident offer. Might not get what I want, but I might still get what I need.
In the meantime, with the trade deadline approaching in a lot of fantassy leagues, one popular question is "If I offer Player A, who can I get in return?" Basically, what is that player's value?
Fair question, and there's never an absolute answer. I run through this for my players every week, throughout the week. When Eno Benjamin looked good filling in for James Conner, I actively tried to trade him before his value plummeted. Came close on a couple occasions. But in hindsight, I valued him a little too highly, thinking he'd get more spot starts later this season. Instead, now he's probably buried on Houston's depth chart.
The people who were at least "interested" in Eno needed RB help. I wasn't going to trade him to an opponent with four startable RBs, because what's in it for them, unless they also have Conner?
A player's value is the sweet spot between what we think he'ss worth, and what our opponents think he's worth. And no sweet spot is the same. Timing is everything. Tapping into an opponent's anxiety is everything. And not trying to get too much in return is, yes, everything.
So if you're looking to trade an extra WR while you still can, consider which of your opponents is most desperate. Don't offer Garrett Wilson for a top-20 RB. Last week? Maybe you could have gotten a top-28 RB, with Wilson coming off a big performance. But probably not this week, unless your opponent has to start K.J. Osborn and could use a higher-upside option.
In the end, we're talking about trade value *ranges*. Kenneth Walker might get you a top-10 WR, or if your opponent has two must-start RBs, maybe only a top 16-20 WR. And if Walker comes up huge this weekend, that might shift to top-8 and top 14-16, respectively.
That fluidity makes it really hard to trade in many leagues. But speaking for myself, if I know the minimum I'd take in return, I'm able to make a much more confident offer. Might not get what I want, but I might still get what I need.