The last time the Bears scored more than 30 points was in 2020 vs. the 1-14 Jaguars. The last time they score more than 30 against a team with a .500 record or better was in 2019, when J.P. Holtz led all Bears in receiving yards. Holtz has caught two more passes for 12 yards in the three years since.
So yeah, last night happened. It played out the opposite of what I expected. Candidly, I have nothing useful to say about what went wrong, because I'm still trying to make sense of it. What we do know is that this is the worst Patriots team in perhaps 22 years, since Bill Belichick's first season as head coach. That year, they finished last in the AFC East, back when Peyton Manning and the Colts were part of the AFC East.
These are unusual times, and New England is a team in transition. They have 10 rookies and apparently no franchise QB. They can't lean on their defense, as they have in years past. As a result, they can't always win on the ground, because too often they're forced to play catch-up. And because their QBs simply aren't very good (yet?), catch-up mode doesn't generally work out.
Sometimes they've thrived, such as against the Lions and Browns. But a lack of experience and uber-talent across various positions makes this Patriots team more hit-or-miss than any during the Tom Brady years. And as Belichick chases greater immortality (most career wins), he might need to coach a year longer than expected.
Fantasy-wise, I thought the online Bailey Zappe hype was a bit premature. His pass to Jakobi Meyers was terrible. His pass to DeVante Parker was solid, but it was also more or less a jump ball won by Parker's experience and athleticism. Chicago entered the game with a barely middling five interceptions. Zappe (2) and Mac Jones (1) have propelled the Bears to a near-elite eight. On paper, that's what it will look like heading into Week 8. Of course, I'd still start Dak Prescott next weekend with confidence.
In the end, it might not matter which QB Belichick starts going forward. New England has a lot of pass-catchers. Jakobi Meyers scored, but was otherwise locked down. Tyquan Thornton underwhelemed despite tying Parker for the team lead in WR/TE targets. Starting any of these guys is a crapshoot, unless you're okay with Meyers or Parker as an RB4 some weeks. It could get even more muddled if a healthy Nelson Agholor gets more involved, or when Kendrick Bourne returns.
In the backfield, Rhamondre Stevenson looked like the lead back, because he was. And we might consider that Damien Harris was returning from a hamstring injury, and the negative game script further limited his touches. But Harris has never been proficient in the passing game. That's why I ranked Stevenson ahead of him this summer, beginning in June, back when Harris was ranked 10+ RB spots ahead. As the more complete back, Stevenson should continue to produce more the rest of the season, even if this returns to a timeshare.
And . . . don't be shocked if New England trades Harris before the deadline. They won't win another Super Bowl this year (I assume). Harris is walking after this season. The Rams could use him. This Chiefs might want to go all in. Or the Bills (although I'm not sure the Pats would trade him to a divisional rival).
So yes, Stevenson could be a top-12 RB in the second half of the season--a 20+ touch bell cow. He's worth investing in if you don't have to pay top-20 value.
For Chicago, I'm stumped. They ran the ball 45 times for 244 yards (5.4 YPC). They borrowed the Patriots' game plan and played it to near perfection. Justin Fields remains deeply raw, often needlessly taking sacks. But he made some timely throws to extend drives, and in particular, when New England roared back to take a 14-10 lead in the second quarter, Fields converted two third downs with his legs and put the Bears ahead for good. That's a step in the right direction for the 23-year-old.
Regarding the closest-score prediction, I picked the Patriots to win 29-10. But sleepy me last Sunday night wrote "29-10 Bears." Mike Vanacore challenged me on the prediction early Monday morning while acknowledging that "it's a free country," so he'd let my ridiculous prediction slide. "Oh no!" I thought to myself. "That's not what I meant to write." So I clarified that I wasn't an idiot--that of course I was picking the Patriots 29-10.
So now I'm a little ticked off at Mike. Because if he hadn't mentioned it, I wouldn't have noticed the error, and this morning I'd be the first three-time closest-score winner. An accidental winner. A sheepish winner. But certainly something I could put on my resume.
Instead, I have nothing to show for it, except an exchange with Mike, which I suppose is worth something.
The real winner is the only person smart enough to pick the Bears to win, and also smart enough not to let Mike dissuade him. Gary Beardmore predicted 23-20, making him the fourth two-time winner of the season. Congrats Gary! Not sure how you knew Chicago would win. But if you have a moment to share your wisdom, we're all ears.
So yeah, last night happened. It played out the opposite of what I expected. Candidly, I have nothing useful to say about what went wrong, because I'm still trying to make sense of it. What we do know is that this is the worst Patriots team in perhaps 22 years, since Bill Belichick's first season as head coach. That year, they finished last in the AFC East, back when Peyton Manning and the Colts were part of the AFC East.
These are unusual times, and New England is a team in transition. They have 10 rookies and apparently no franchise QB. They can't lean on their defense, as they have in years past. As a result, they can't always win on the ground, because too often they're forced to play catch-up. And because their QBs simply aren't very good (yet?), catch-up mode doesn't generally work out.
Sometimes they've thrived, such as against the Lions and Browns. But a lack of experience and uber-talent across various positions makes this Patriots team more hit-or-miss than any during the Tom Brady years. And as Belichick chases greater immortality (most career wins), he might need to coach a year longer than expected.
Fantasy-wise, I thought the online Bailey Zappe hype was a bit premature. His pass to Jakobi Meyers was terrible. His pass to DeVante Parker was solid, but it was also more or less a jump ball won by Parker's experience and athleticism. Chicago entered the game with a barely middling five interceptions. Zappe (2) and Mac Jones (1) have propelled the Bears to a near-elite eight. On paper, that's what it will look like heading into Week 8. Of course, I'd still start Dak Prescott next weekend with confidence.
In the end, it might not matter which QB Belichick starts going forward. New England has a lot of pass-catchers. Jakobi Meyers scored, but was otherwise locked down. Tyquan Thornton underwhelemed despite tying Parker for the team lead in WR/TE targets. Starting any of these guys is a crapshoot, unless you're okay with Meyers or Parker as an RB4 some weeks. It could get even more muddled if a healthy Nelson Agholor gets more involved, or when Kendrick Bourne returns.
In the backfield, Rhamondre Stevenson looked like the lead back, because he was. And we might consider that Damien Harris was returning from a hamstring injury, and the negative game script further limited his touches. But Harris has never been proficient in the passing game. That's why I ranked Stevenson ahead of him this summer, beginning in June, back when Harris was ranked 10+ RB spots ahead. As the more complete back, Stevenson should continue to produce more the rest of the season, even if this returns to a timeshare.
And . . . don't be shocked if New England trades Harris before the deadline. They won't win another Super Bowl this year (I assume). Harris is walking after this season. The Rams could use him. This Chiefs might want to go all in. Or the Bills (although I'm not sure the Pats would trade him to a divisional rival).
So yes, Stevenson could be a top-12 RB in the second half of the season--a 20+ touch bell cow. He's worth investing in if you don't have to pay top-20 value.
For Chicago, I'm stumped. They ran the ball 45 times for 244 yards (5.4 YPC). They borrowed the Patriots' game plan and played it to near perfection. Justin Fields remains deeply raw, often needlessly taking sacks. But he made some timely throws to extend drives, and in particular, when New England roared back to take a 14-10 lead in the second quarter, Fields converted two third downs with his legs and put the Bears ahead for good. That's a step in the right direction for the 23-year-old.
Regarding the closest-score prediction, I picked the Patriots to win 29-10. But sleepy me last Sunday night wrote "29-10 Bears." Mike Vanacore challenged me on the prediction early Monday morning while acknowledging that "it's a free country," so he'd let my ridiculous prediction slide. "Oh no!" I thought to myself. "That's not what I meant to write." So I clarified that I wasn't an idiot--that of course I was picking the Patriots 29-10.
So now I'm a little ticked off at Mike. Because if he hadn't mentioned it, I wouldn't have noticed the error, and this morning I'd be the first three-time closest-score winner. An accidental winner. A sheepish winner. But certainly something I could put on my resume.
Instead, I have nothing to show for it, except an exchange with Mike, which I suppose is worth something.
The real winner is the only person smart enough to pick the Bears to win, and also smart enough not to let Mike dissuade him. Gary Beardmore predicted 23-20, making him the fourth two-time winner of the season. Congrats Gary! Not sure how you knew Chicago would win. But if you have a moment to share your wisdom, we're all ears.