Last night's game symbolized what we've seen for much of this season. Two partially injured QBs, one missing his top running back, and the other missing his top wideout. One elite pass defense. A hobbled kicker. All wrapped up in game that often jolted its way to the final whistle.
I looked up historical NFL numbers, and sure enough, the 2022 NFL season is different. Entering the Chargers-Broncos matchup, teams were averaging 0.89 rushing TDs per game, lower than each of the last two seasons. And teams were also averaging 1.38 passing TDs per game--the lowest tally since 2008. The last time teams averaged fewer points per game was in 2009.
So yeah, it's been a while since we've seen this. There's still plenty of scoring overall. A lot of exciting football. And also, on balance, less offense.
I haven't had time to do all the research I'd normally want to do to understand this phenomenon. But I spent a few minutes examining penalties, and that might be one factor. In 2020, there were 11.34 penalties per game. Last year, 11.82. This year? Only 7.53.
One key difference? A sharp downturn in impactful defensive penalties. In 2020, defensive pass interference, defensive holding, unncessary roughness (defense), and roughing the passer accounted for 2.99 penalties per game. Last year, 2.73. This year, 1.69. Offenses are working harder for their yards. Not a lot harder. But hard enough to make it a little bit tougher to sustain one of their drives or reach the end zone.
There are obviously plenty of fantasy implications. We can revisit this later in the season to see if the numbers still hold. For now, it makes a little more sense why, when we incorporate all of the other obstacles facing L.A.'s and Denver's offenses, last night's contest wasn't more "thrilling."
Fantasy-wise, Melvin Gordon's demotion was one of the biggest stories. Latavius Murray might be one of this week's biggest waiver adds. He ran well, and the Broncos trusted him. Gordon is now droppable in most leagues. Mike Boone presumably is the lead handcuff unless he flops later. Also, rookie TE Greg Dulcich had a memorable debut, while Albert O. was a healthy scratch. That's all we need to know about Denver's TE hierarchy.
And notably, from midway through the 3rd quarter to the end of the game, Russell Wilson completed only one pass to a WR/TE. About 30 game minutes. He and Herbert were very cautious about going downfield, particularly in the second half and OT.
And while Mike Williams was shut down, Joshua Palmer finally stepped up when he was needed most. If you've been stashing Keenan Allen, there's always concern when a younger #3 receiver emerges. Palmer's ascendance began last season. He was slow to start the year, though Justin Herbert's rib injury couldn't have helped. Last night he delivered, and surely that won't be the last time he's fantasy-relevant this year.
And now, final-score prediction. I picked the Chargers 27-20. Did anyone come closer? Of course. Because this is a community filled with savvy football people. And who's the savviest of them all, at least for today? Greg Slack, who predicted 23-16. Congrats, Greg!
I looked up historical NFL numbers, and sure enough, the 2022 NFL season is different. Entering the Chargers-Broncos matchup, teams were averaging 0.89 rushing TDs per game, lower than each of the last two seasons. And teams were also averaging 1.38 passing TDs per game--the lowest tally since 2008. The last time teams averaged fewer points per game was in 2009.
So yeah, it's been a while since we've seen this. There's still plenty of scoring overall. A lot of exciting football. And also, on balance, less offense.
I haven't had time to do all the research I'd normally want to do to understand this phenomenon. But I spent a few minutes examining penalties, and that might be one factor. In 2020, there were 11.34 penalties per game. Last year, 11.82. This year? Only 7.53.
One key difference? A sharp downturn in impactful defensive penalties. In 2020, defensive pass interference, defensive holding, unncessary roughness (defense), and roughing the passer accounted for 2.99 penalties per game. Last year, 2.73. This year, 1.69. Offenses are working harder for their yards. Not a lot harder. But hard enough to make it a little bit tougher to sustain one of their drives or reach the end zone.
There are obviously plenty of fantasy implications. We can revisit this later in the season to see if the numbers still hold. For now, it makes a little more sense why, when we incorporate all of the other obstacles facing L.A.'s and Denver's offenses, last night's contest wasn't more "thrilling."
Fantasy-wise, Melvin Gordon's demotion was one of the biggest stories. Latavius Murray might be one of this week's biggest waiver adds. He ran well, and the Broncos trusted him. Gordon is now droppable in most leagues. Mike Boone presumably is the lead handcuff unless he flops later. Also, rookie TE Greg Dulcich had a memorable debut, while Albert O. was a healthy scratch. That's all we need to know about Denver's TE hierarchy.
And notably, from midway through the 3rd quarter to the end of the game, Russell Wilson completed only one pass to a WR/TE. About 30 game minutes. He and Herbert were very cautious about going downfield, particularly in the second half and OT.
And while Mike Williams was shut down, Joshua Palmer finally stepped up when he was needed most. If you've been stashing Keenan Allen, there's always concern when a younger #3 receiver emerges. Palmer's ascendance began last season. He was slow to start the year, though Justin Herbert's rib injury couldn't have helped. Last night he delivered, and surely that won't be the last time he's fantasy-relevant this year.
And now, final-score prediction. I picked the Chargers 27-20. Did anyone come closer? Of course. Because this is a community filled with savvy football people. And who's the savviest of them all, at least for today? Greg Slack, who predicted 23-16. Congrats, Greg!