One of the things that drew me to start this blog a decade ago can be summed up by the Kenneth Walker phenomenon. He's arguably the biggest waiver add of the week. Some are saying he's the biggest of the year. In some leagues, people might spend half their FAAB or more to get him. To a lesser extent, we have Eno Benjamin, Rachaad White, and other handcuffs or co-handcuff making waves, as RB-needy managers line up to land a shot in the arm.
But in hindsight, all of this was predictable, wasn't it? Maybe not predictable, but at least probable. Rashaad Penny entered the season as one of the NFL's three most injury-prone starting backs. James Conner has never made it through a full season unscathed. As I wrote many times, Leonard Fournette has regressed and/or missed chunks of games after every 200+ touch season, and surely the Super-Bowl-minded Bucs would do everything in their power to manage his load, so he'd be healthy for the playoffs.
If in early September we'd wanted to bet on the 10 highest-probability backup RBs to earn spot starts this season, then Walker, Benjamin, and White surely would've been in that group. And yet here we are, bombarded with prognostications about how essential it is to pick up Walker today, and how Benjamin and White are must-adds.
The groundbreaking-ness (not a word, but it should be) of all this occurred weeks ago, when we could have added these three guys on the cheap. That's when we could have played the probabilities on some lottery tickets.
I know: some of you can't stash RBs on your bench. You have, what, three or four extra spots? Well, my longtime view is that in most leagues, especially before bye weeks hit, almost all of those spots should be taken by the highest-ceiling players available. The Walkers and Benjamins and Whites if you're in deep leagues. Or the Pollards, Mattisons, and Dillons in shallower leaguers. What good is keeping a top 40-50 WR on your bench for five weeks?
Heading into Week 6, we need to think about how the fantasy landscape might look heading into Week 7. Here are some examples.
Raheem Mostert is flying high for Miami. But he's also a 30-year-old who's suffered two season-ending injuries the last two years. This past weekend, Myles Gaskin leapfrogged Chase Edmonds, out-touching him 7-1. If you agree Mostert is a poor bet to make it through 17 games, then Gaskin (or perhaps still Edmonds) is a must-add in a plus offense.
Samaje Perine, Samaje Perine, Samaje Perine. Joe Mixon fared well against Baltimore, finally. He's also on pace for 394 touches after clearing 400 (including the playoffs) last season. That's a screaming yellow flag.
D'Onta Foreman, D'Onta Foreman, D'Onta Foreman. Could Christian McCaffrey get traded? If he stays, why would the flailing Panthers risk a third serious injury in three seasons come December?
And it's not just RBs. Davante Adams might get suspended for shoving a cameraman. You can probably trade for Hunter Renfrow for next-to-nothing, or even grab him off waivers in 10-team leagues. He or Mack Hollins could be the #1 WR for a week or two (or more?) after this bye week.
Effctive team management requires that we look ahead before the fantasy universe catches on. Sell high before the dip, buy low before the rise, and pick-up-and-stash for $1 of FAAB before that same player's worth $50 or more.
But in hindsight, all of this was predictable, wasn't it? Maybe not predictable, but at least probable. Rashaad Penny entered the season as one of the NFL's three most injury-prone starting backs. James Conner has never made it through a full season unscathed. As I wrote many times, Leonard Fournette has regressed and/or missed chunks of games after every 200+ touch season, and surely the Super-Bowl-minded Bucs would do everything in their power to manage his load, so he'd be healthy for the playoffs.
If in early September we'd wanted to bet on the 10 highest-probability backup RBs to earn spot starts this season, then Walker, Benjamin, and White surely would've been in that group. And yet here we are, bombarded with prognostications about how essential it is to pick up Walker today, and how Benjamin and White are must-adds.
The groundbreaking-ness (not a word, but it should be) of all this occurred weeks ago, when we could have added these three guys on the cheap. That's when we could have played the probabilities on some lottery tickets.
I know: some of you can't stash RBs on your bench. You have, what, three or four extra spots? Well, my longtime view is that in most leagues, especially before bye weeks hit, almost all of those spots should be taken by the highest-ceiling players available. The Walkers and Benjamins and Whites if you're in deep leagues. Or the Pollards, Mattisons, and Dillons in shallower leaguers. What good is keeping a top 40-50 WR on your bench for five weeks?
Heading into Week 6, we need to think about how the fantasy landscape might look heading into Week 7. Here are some examples.
Raheem Mostert is flying high for Miami. But he's also a 30-year-old who's suffered two season-ending injuries the last two years. This past weekend, Myles Gaskin leapfrogged Chase Edmonds, out-touching him 7-1. If you agree Mostert is a poor bet to make it through 17 games, then Gaskin (or perhaps still Edmonds) is a must-add in a plus offense.
Samaje Perine, Samaje Perine, Samaje Perine. Joe Mixon fared well against Baltimore, finally. He's also on pace for 394 touches after clearing 400 (including the playoffs) last season. That's a screaming yellow flag.
D'Onta Foreman, D'Onta Foreman, D'Onta Foreman. Could Christian McCaffrey get traded? If he stays, why would the flailing Panthers risk a third serious injury in three seasons come December?
And it's not just RBs. Davante Adams might get suspended for shoving a cameraman. You can probably trade for Hunter Renfrow for next-to-nothing, or even grab him off waivers in 10-team leagues. He or Mack Hollins could be the #1 WR for a week or two (or more?) after this bye week.
Effctive team management requires that we look ahead before the fantasy universe catches on. Sell high before the dip, buy low before the rise, and pick-up-and-stash for $1 of FAAB before that same player's worth $50 or more.