Some final thoughts heading into Sunday. First, Christian McCaffrey is "expected to play" today, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Given the circumstances (a trade, not an injury), there's obviously no "pre-game setback" risk. So it would seem McCaffrey is a good bet for 8+ PPR points, and with his normal 20+ point ceiling if he finds the end zone at least once.
Of course, this makes things tricky if you're starting Jeff Wilson. Who knows what he'll do. I assume 5+ points is reasonable. But after catching seven balls in his first three games, he's caught only on in the three games since. With CMC on board, Wilson's odds of suddenly re-engaging as a pass-catcher seems slim. So yeah, solid RB4/5 floor. A better bet than D'Onta Foreman in my opinion, because Wilson's more likely to get a look inside the 5-yard line.
Wilson typifies general RB risk today across most games. D'Andre Swift or Jamaal Williams? Foreman or Chuba Hubbard or Raheem Blackshear? Tyler Allgeier or Caleb Huntley? James Robinson or Travis Etienne? Melvin Gordon or Latavius Murray or Mike Boone?
And there are guys like Jonathan Taylor, who (like Swift, and even the Jags' formidable backfield) we have to start. Because they're simply too good to bench, even though they carry certain risks that make us pine for the days of ubiquitous bell cows.
For what it's worth, I'm planning to start Rachaad White over Gordon. Gordon clearly has a wider path to production as the supposed starter (we'll see what happens). Worst-case, Gordon should get 7+ touches, and with Brett Rypien at QB, maybe several dump-offs while racking up precious points. And now I'm second-guessing myself. It seems so obvious. "Gordon could be an offensive centerpiece today!"
And yet, he has as good a chance of getting 14+ points as he does getting six or less. A slow start could doom him to a mid-game benching after seven carries for 16 yards.
Although White is far riskier, I'm angling toward him because of a likely positive game script. Very positive. As in, a 30+ points Bucs victory. I'm betting on Leonard Fournette heading to to the sidelines by the mid-third quarter, paving the way for 10+ touches for White. And since he's already caught 13 passes for 96 yards, I like him getting at least a couple more receptions. If Tampa Bay scores as much as I think they will, then White arguably has more TD potential than the more established Gordon.
As always, no right answers. Only probabilities. We make the best decision we can, and we own it.
Good luck owning your decisions today. And as always, comment below if you need a sounding board on a sit/start question or anything else.
Of course, this makes things tricky if you're starting Jeff Wilson. Who knows what he'll do. I assume 5+ points is reasonable. But after catching seven balls in his first three games, he's caught only on in the three games since. With CMC on board, Wilson's odds of suddenly re-engaging as a pass-catcher seems slim. So yeah, solid RB4/5 floor. A better bet than D'Onta Foreman in my opinion, because Wilson's more likely to get a look inside the 5-yard line.
Wilson typifies general RB risk today across most games. D'Andre Swift or Jamaal Williams? Foreman or Chuba Hubbard or Raheem Blackshear? Tyler Allgeier or Caleb Huntley? James Robinson or Travis Etienne? Melvin Gordon or Latavius Murray or Mike Boone?
And there are guys like Jonathan Taylor, who (like Swift, and even the Jags' formidable backfield) we have to start. Because they're simply too good to bench, even though they carry certain risks that make us pine for the days of ubiquitous bell cows.
For what it's worth, I'm planning to start Rachaad White over Gordon. Gordon clearly has a wider path to production as the supposed starter (we'll see what happens). Worst-case, Gordon should get 7+ touches, and with Brett Rypien at QB, maybe several dump-offs while racking up precious points. And now I'm second-guessing myself. It seems so obvious. "Gordon could be an offensive centerpiece today!"
And yet, he has as good a chance of getting 14+ points as he does getting six or less. A slow start could doom him to a mid-game benching after seven carries for 16 yards.
Although White is far riskier, I'm angling toward him because of a likely positive game script. Very positive. As in, a 30+ points Bucs victory. I'm betting on Leonard Fournette heading to to the sidelines by the mid-third quarter, paving the way for 10+ touches for White. And since he's already caught 13 passes for 96 yards, I like him getting at least a couple more receptions. If Tampa Bay scores as much as I think they will, then White arguably has more TD potential than the more established Gordon.
As always, no right answers. Only probabilities. We make the best decision we can, and we own it.
Good luck owning your decisions today. And as always, comment below if you need a sounding board on a sit/start question or anything else.