Tonight's battle surely will put the last several prime-time NFL games to shame. No offense to anyone who enjoyed watching the Cowboys claw their way past the Giants, or the Broncos inch their way ahead of the Niners, or the Browns wear down the overmatched Steelers. It's rare to watch two teams with (arguably) the two best WR tandems go head-to-head. The average age of those four WRs is 24. Their QBs are only 24 and 25. If things break right (i.e. offensively explosive), we could easily see 60+ points.
Starting with the Bengals, unlike last season, their offense runs almost entirely through the passing game. I keep writing this, and it needs to be mentioned again: Joe Mixon's 400+ touches last season (including the playoffs) were a major yellow flag heading into 2022, based on my historical research. Last week Samaje Perine outplayed him, and it might not be long before this becomes a timeshare, with Perine operating as the primary third-down back while earning 4-5 carries
If you trust Mixon tonight, great, I hope you're right. Miami's defense is averaging a rough 5.0 YPC. However, they've faced the Patriots' formidable backfield, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen. That surprisingly 43-yard scamper by Zack Moss on Sunday is the difference between Miami's run D being comfortably above average, and well below average. So we shouldn't eye stats in a vacuum. The Dolphins are capable of containing even some of the best rushers.
Meanwhile, can Ja'Marr Chase snap back? I'm not a big believer in lockdown cornerbacks, unless they're truly at another level. Darrelle Revis was at another level. Xavien Howard IMO isn't. Chase should rebound. Tee Higgins remains the same near-elite Higgins I pushed hard this summer. Tyler Boyd? I wouldn't go chasing points. With Chase, Hayden Hurst, and Mixon struggling in Week 3, Boyd stepped up. That doesn't make him a reiable streamer.
Speaking of Hurst, he's the same guy I tagged as a big bargain at his TE23 ADP. The TDs will come. His target share should remain steadily inside the top 16. He remains a weekly streamer.
For Miami, assuming Tua Tagovailoa has no setbacks, I like him as an 18+ point option with pop. The backfield remains, as always, a drag on this offense. Chase Edmonds hasn't stepped up. Raheem Mostert at times has looked better, but he has his own limitations. This two-headed RB corps is disastrous for fantasy managers, and it's unlikely to change tonight or in the coming weeks. Both RBs remain largely TD-dependent.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle: not much needs to be said. Hill's had two quiet performances. I like him cracking 17 points this evening. The big question is whether Mike Gesicki is now officially worse than Hurst. It looks that way, unless somehow the offensive scheme changes. If this team were 0-3, I'd bet on Gesicki. But at 3-0, this should be a stay-the-course, top-heavy effort featuring Miami's two premier playmakers.
My final score prediction is 33-27 Bengals. Share your prediction below. The winner gets a *major* Friday morning shout-out, and your name will be added to the Winners Circle, which is like the Studio 54 of Winners Circles. Except no celebrities or music. But you can still dance.
Starting with the Bengals, unlike last season, their offense runs almost entirely through the passing game. I keep writing this, and it needs to be mentioned again: Joe Mixon's 400+ touches last season (including the playoffs) were a major yellow flag heading into 2022, based on my historical research. Last week Samaje Perine outplayed him, and it might not be long before this becomes a timeshare, with Perine operating as the primary third-down back while earning 4-5 carries
If you trust Mixon tonight, great, I hope you're right. Miami's defense is averaging a rough 5.0 YPC. However, they've faced the Patriots' formidable backfield, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen. That surprisingly 43-yard scamper by Zack Moss on Sunday is the difference between Miami's run D being comfortably above average, and well below average. So we shouldn't eye stats in a vacuum. The Dolphins are capable of containing even some of the best rushers.
Meanwhile, can Ja'Marr Chase snap back? I'm not a big believer in lockdown cornerbacks, unless they're truly at another level. Darrelle Revis was at another level. Xavien Howard IMO isn't. Chase should rebound. Tee Higgins remains the same near-elite Higgins I pushed hard this summer. Tyler Boyd? I wouldn't go chasing points. With Chase, Hayden Hurst, and Mixon struggling in Week 3, Boyd stepped up. That doesn't make him a reiable streamer.
Speaking of Hurst, he's the same guy I tagged as a big bargain at his TE23 ADP. The TDs will come. His target share should remain steadily inside the top 16. He remains a weekly streamer.
For Miami, assuming Tua Tagovailoa has no setbacks, I like him as an 18+ point option with pop. The backfield remains, as always, a drag on this offense. Chase Edmonds hasn't stepped up. Raheem Mostert at times has looked better, but he has his own limitations. This two-headed RB corps is disastrous for fantasy managers, and it's unlikely to change tonight or in the coming weeks. Both RBs remain largely TD-dependent.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle: not much needs to be said. Hill's had two quiet performances. I like him cracking 17 points this evening. The big question is whether Mike Gesicki is now officially worse than Hurst. It looks that way, unless somehow the offensive scheme changes. If this team were 0-3, I'd bet on Gesicki. But at 3-0, this should be a stay-the-course, top-heavy effort featuring Miami's two premier playmakers.
My final score prediction is 33-27 Bengals. Share your prediction below. The winner gets a *major* Friday morning shout-out, and your name will be added to the Winners Circle, which is like the Studio 54 of Winners Circles. Except no celebrities or music. But you can still dance.