A strange game tonight as we start Week 3. Two bottom-8 (bottom-12, to be kind?) starting QBs, and two running games going in opposite directions. This contest realistically could get several ways. Here's what I'm watching for.
First, last summer I went all in on Nick Chubb as my RB2, and he couldn't cut it, even after Kareem Hunt got hurt. This year, he's the RB1 through two games while averaging 5.8 YPC. Meanwhile, Hunt is the RB10. Further proof that Chubb can be elite even if Hunt is semi-dominant. I should have doubled-down this summer, but got scared that a weak QB the first half+ of the season would lead to more stacked boxes.
And here's the thing: it might turn out that way. The Browns have run over the Panthers and Jets. While I'm very comfortable betting on Chubb and Hunt tonight, at some point defenses will force Jacoby Brissett to try to beat them. Yeah, easier said than done. And . . . that's what happened last year with Alvin Kamara, and we've seen it with other one-dimensional offenses over the years. With T.J. Watt out tonight, Cleveland's backfield gets a boost. They'll also be must-starts next week in Atlanta. But looking ahead to the Patriots, Dolphins, Bills, Bucs, and some other tough opponents, Cleveland will need to open things up.
Elsewhere, Donovan Peoples-Jones was an offensive hero for this team in Week 1, and then Amari Cooper took over in Week 2, leaving DPJ with nothing but zeroes. We weren't born yesterday. We know Amari is one of the streakiest boom-bust receivers out there, and with Brissett throwing to him, we should anticipate lower floors and ceilings than when he was the co-#1 in Dallas. If you're starting Amari tonight, you're hoping it's still his turn, because Brissett probably can't feed more than one receiver per game.
And what's going on with David Njoku? Figured with Austin Hooper gone, the high-priced Njoku could become a weekly streamer. Instead, Harrison Bryant has more catches and more yards. I get that Njoku does more than catch passes. But he's on the field for nearly every play. We've seen him take over games (seven career 50+ yard, one-TD performances). Presumably he'll get going, serving as the No. 5 offensive option behind Chubb, Hunt, Amari, and DPJ -- or occasionally even ahead of DPJ. I'm not giving up on him.
For Pittsburgh, it'll be hard to trust Najee Harris as more than an 11-14 point option tonight. Since he was generally drafted in the late-first / early-second round, that's clearly not ideal. Maybe his passing-game usage will ramp up. Or maybe he'll struggle for the third straight time, leading to more reps for Jaylen Warren, who had three touches in Week 1 and five last weekend. Will we see seven or eight tonight? If so, and if it's because Najee disappoints, that would be a pretty monumental fantasy discussion topic heading into Week 4.
And like Brissett, can Mitch Trubisky feed more than one receiver? Thanks to Pat Freiermuth, yes, because Trubisky's TE is one of the safest-floor tight ends out there, while Diontae Johnson is tied for ninth in the league with 22 targets. Along with Najee, those are the two Steelers who are pretty much must-starts. Everyone else (Chase Claypool and George Pickens, specifically) are nothing more than low-floor fliers until/unless Pittsburgh upgrades at QB.
Final score prediction: Browns 19, Steelers 16. If you want to guess the final score for a shot at joining the (mostly) meaningless Winners Circle (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13SZPKEL8x861lE5yy4_E8fPS5D9jVXmMf1d7BXi9Aws/edit#gid=1358794746), leave your final-score prediction below.
First, last summer I went all in on Nick Chubb as my RB2, and he couldn't cut it, even after Kareem Hunt got hurt. This year, he's the RB1 through two games while averaging 5.8 YPC. Meanwhile, Hunt is the RB10. Further proof that Chubb can be elite even if Hunt is semi-dominant. I should have doubled-down this summer, but got scared that a weak QB the first half+ of the season would lead to more stacked boxes.
And here's the thing: it might turn out that way. The Browns have run over the Panthers and Jets. While I'm very comfortable betting on Chubb and Hunt tonight, at some point defenses will force Jacoby Brissett to try to beat them. Yeah, easier said than done. And . . . that's what happened last year with Alvin Kamara, and we've seen it with other one-dimensional offenses over the years. With T.J. Watt out tonight, Cleveland's backfield gets a boost. They'll also be must-starts next week in Atlanta. But looking ahead to the Patriots, Dolphins, Bills, Bucs, and some other tough opponents, Cleveland will need to open things up.
Elsewhere, Donovan Peoples-Jones was an offensive hero for this team in Week 1, and then Amari Cooper took over in Week 2, leaving DPJ with nothing but zeroes. We weren't born yesterday. We know Amari is one of the streakiest boom-bust receivers out there, and with Brissett throwing to him, we should anticipate lower floors and ceilings than when he was the co-#1 in Dallas. If you're starting Amari tonight, you're hoping it's still his turn, because Brissett probably can't feed more than one receiver per game.
And what's going on with David Njoku? Figured with Austin Hooper gone, the high-priced Njoku could become a weekly streamer. Instead, Harrison Bryant has more catches and more yards. I get that Njoku does more than catch passes. But he's on the field for nearly every play. We've seen him take over games (seven career 50+ yard, one-TD performances). Presumably he'll get going, serving as the No. 5 offensive option behind Chubb, Hunt, Amari, and DPJ -- or occasionally even ahead of DPJ. I'm not giving up on him.
For Pittsburgh, it'll be hard to trust Najee Harris as more than an 11-14 point option tonight. Since he was generally drafted in the late-first / early-second round, that's clearly not ideal. Maybe his passing-game usage will ramp up. Or maybe he'll struggle for the third straight time, leading to more reps for Jaylen Warren, who had three touches in Week 1 and five last weekend. Will we see seven or eight tonight? If so, and if it's because Najee disappoints, that would be a pretty monumental fantasy discussion topic heading into Week 4.
And like Brissett, can Mitch Trubisky feed more than one receiver? Thanks to Pat Freiermuth, yes, because Trubisky's TE is one of the safest-floor tight ends out there, while Diontae Johnson is tied for ninth in the league with 22 targets. Along with Najee, those are the two Steelers who are pretty much must-starts. Everyone else (Chase Claypool and George Pickens, specifically) are nothing more than low-floor fliers until/unless Pittsburgh upgrades at QB.
Final score prediction: Browns 19, Steelers 16. If you want to guess the final score for a shot at joining the (mostly) meaningless Winners Circle (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13SZPKEL8x861lE5yy4_E8fPS5D9jVXmMf1d7BXi9Aws/edit#gid=1358794746), leave your final-score prediction below.