Another eventful Sunday, because there's no such thing as an uneventful Sunday. As always, below is (in my opinion) the most important fantasy storyline for each team that played. As most of you know, I'm not interested in rehashing monster stats. Yeah, great to see great players do great things. I'm more interested in how what happened yesterday might impact what happens in Week 4 and beyond.
And if you want to guess tonight's final score, please comment below. I'm going 23-16 Cowboys. Also predicting it will be more exciting than last night's Broncos-Niners face-off, but we'll get to that shortly.
Bears vs. Texans -- I wrote on Saturday that "anything less" than 12+ combined targets for Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet would spell more long-term trouble for one or both of them. They combined for nine, and it was even uglier than that. Justin Fields hasn't completed more than eight passes in any game this season, and Chicago's schedule won't get any easier after the Giants next week. Mooney is clearly benchable until/unless Fields develops. And for Houston Dameon Pierce proved me wrong, making a strong statement in his best NFL start. He's officially a *tentative* weekly starter, as long as his volume keeps up.
Titans vs. Raiders -- Derrick Henry and Robert Woods got going, which were two keys for Tennessee heading into this year. Unfortunately for me, my opponent has both of them. But more importantly, a great sign for two guys on the verge of being downgraded. And Mack Hollins stepped up big-time in the absence of Hunter Renfrow. It seems bizarre that a journeyman like Hollins could dominate like this. When Renfrow returns, this receiving corps could get more confusing, which would be bad news for those leaning on Renfrow, Darren Waller, and yes, even Davante Adams.
Colts vs. Chiefs -- What a win. Alec Pierce was #2 in WR targets for Indy. I pushed him hard in early September, and a Week 1 concussion (following a dropped pass in the end zone) made me wonder if this might be a lost season, especially with Ashton Dulin looming. But Pierce is a fundamentally sound receiver who could be a strong #2 in an otherwise sub-par passing attack. And CEH finally hit a wall. But more than that, he hasn't exceeded eight carries in a game. TDs and receptions are keeping him afloat. But that won't be sustainable if he's averaging only about one carry per possession.
Dolphins vs. Bills -- Possibly an even more incredible win, though the 100-degree heat and Buffalo's rash of injuries might have been the difference. For Miami, keep an eye on Tua Tagovailoa's potential concussion symptoms and the NFL's reported investigation into it. The team's headed to Cincy to play on Thursday. Could he be a game-time decision? And for Buffalo, should we take Isaiah McKenzie seriously in fantasy? He flashed a bit last year. Any sustained volume would surely cut into Gabe Davis's an possibly Dawson Knox's (faltering) upside.
Vikings vs. Lions -- Dalvin Cook dislocated his shoulder. As we all know, he's had the misfortune of getting hurt throughout his career. Alexander Mattison, as always, is one of the best RB handcuffs in the game. End of story. And D'Andre Swift also injured his shoulder, paving the way for a terrific Jamaal Williams performance. Like Cook, Swift appears to be an annual higher-than-normal injury risk. If you don't want to deal with "Will-he-or-won't-he-play" dilemmas, you might want to trade Swift.
Patriots vs. Ravens -- Mac Jones will have an MRI on his ankle today and could miss multiple weeks. New England's sub-par passing attack assuredly won't get better. And Rhamondre Stevenson looks like the most complete back on the team, though we'll need another week or two to understand what Bill Belichick is thinking. And a quiet return for J.K. Dobbins, though at least he's healthy. Still, it could be a month or more before we see any semblance of his 2020 abilities.
Jets vs. Bengals -- A disastrous day for Joe Flacco, removing any remaining doubt that Zach Wilson deserves his job back once he's ready. And Samaje Perine, folks. Samaje Perine. I've said this over and over again. Based on last year's usage, Joe Mixon is a higher-than-normal injury/regression risk. It's not a hot take. These are probabilities based on all NFL data going back to the 1930's. If you have Mixon, get Perine. If you have Perine, cash out if your opponent sees the writing on the wall. Otherwise, hold steady.
Commanders vs. Eagles -- Philly's defense is for real. That said, I'm struck by Terry McLaurin's back-to-back impressive showings after a quiet Week 1 that brought back bad memories of (most of) last season. At least for now, McLaurin looks like a weekly fantasy starter. And DeVonta Smith does it again. As PFN Pass subscribers know, he was my overall 84th-ranked player vs. an overall 93 ADP. Not a big difference, but a slight "buy." He was a first-round draft pick for a reason. As long as Jalen Hurts can feed his three top receivers (including Dallas Goedert), the sky's the limit.
Panthers vs. Saints -- Carolina paid D.J. Moore this offseason, so his invisibility in this offense is tough to understand. I'd buy low, because talent is talent. But "how low" is the question. I wouldn't pay top-24-WR value. And Jameis Winston's broken ribs remain troubling for an offense that was supposed to take a step forward. Big props to those who drafte Chris Olave, who's left Jarvis Landry in the dust.
Chargers vs. Jaguars -- Austin Ekeler continues to scuffle, and it's no longer an anomaly. Something's up. And James Robinson continued to play ahead of Travis Etienne, which honestly surprises me, but based on productivity, it's obviously understandable.
Cardinals vs. Rams -- Kyler Murray attempted 58 passes while averaging only 5.4 yards per attempt. Beyond the big numbers for his key receivers, he hasn't looked the same since early last season. And a goal-line fumble prevented Cam Akers from (possibly) retaking the #1 RB role from Darrell Henderson. Next week could be the decider.
Seahawks vs. Falcons -- I sound like a broken record, but Rashaad Penny remains a better on-the-field RB than fantasy RB. No TDs + one reception = (usually) unstartable. And Kyle Pitts finally got going, as expected. But since Atlanta won't get to play Seattle every week, this is a good sell-high moment.
Buccaneers vs. Packers -- Leonard Fournette has struggled to move the ball on the ground the past two weeks. Once the Bucs' receivers get healthy, we'll have a better sense whether Fournette is the liability I thought he'd be this summer, or if he'll thrive once the passing game gets going. And Romeo Doubs looked like Aaron Rodgers' new #1 WR. Still need a week or two for the dust to settle. Of course, if you have Doubs, it's a great time to sell high, because this offense will continue to be more run-friendly.
Broncos vs. 49ers -- Through three weeks, I've been completely wrong about Russell Wilson. As always, is it the coaching staff? Is it him? Very troubling, and I don't know what to advise, because I'd still trade for him. But how patient can fantasy managers be? And I thought Brandon Aiyuk would take a hit with George Kittle back. Didn't play out that way last night. Will be fascinating to see how these two, plus Deebo Samuel, are utilized in a Jimmy G.-led (i.e. barely middling passing QB) attack.
And if you want to guess tonight's final score, please comment below. I'm going 23-16 Cowboys. Also predicting it will be more exciting than last night's Broncos-Niners face-off, but we'll get to that shortly.
Bears vs. Texans -- I wrote on Saturday that "anything less" than 12+ combined targets for Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet would spell more long-term trouble for one or both of them. They combined for nine, and it was even uglier than that. Justin Fields hasn't completed more than eight passes in any game this season, and Chicago's schedule won't get any easier after the Giants next week. Mooney is clearly benchable until/unless Fields develops. And for Houston Dameon Pierce proved me wrong, making a strong statement in his best NFL start. He's officially a *tentative* weekly starter, as long as his volume keeps up.
Titans vs. Raiders -- Derrick Henry and Robert Woods got going, which were two keys for Tennessee heading into this year. Unfortunately for me, my opponent has both of them. But more importantly, a great sign for two guys on the verge of being downgraded. And Mack Hollins stepped up big-time in the absence of Hunter Renfrow. It seems bizarre that a journeyman like Hollins could dominate like this. When Renfrow returns, this receiving corps could get more confusing, which would be bad news for those leaning on Renfrow, Darren Waller, and yes, even Davante Adams.
Colts vs. Chiefs -- What a win. Alec Pierce was #2 in WR targets for Indy. I pushed him hard in early September, and a Week 1 concussion (following a dropped pass in the end zone) made me wonder if this might be a lost season, especially with Ashton Dulin looming. But Pierce is a fundamentally sound receiver who could be a strong #2 in an otherwise sub-par passing attack. And CEH finally hit a wall. But more than that, he hasn't exceeded eight carries in a game. TDs and receptions are keeping him afloat. But that won't be sustainable if he's averaging only about one carry per possession.
Dolphins vs. Bills -- Possibly an even more incredible win, though the 100-degree heat and Buffalo's rash of injuries might have been the difference. For Miami, keep an eye on Tua Tagovailoa's potential concussion symptoms and the NFL's reported investigation into it. The team's headed to Cincy to play on Thursday. Could he be a game-time decision? And for Buffalo, should we take Isaiah McKenzie seriously in fantasy? He flashed a bit last year. Any sustained volume would surely cut into Gabe Davis's an possibly Dawson Knox's (faltering) upside.
Vikings vs. Lions -- Dalvin Cook dislocated his shoulder. As we all know, he's had the misfortune of getting hurt throughout his career. Alexander Mattison, as always, is one of the best RB handcuffs in the game. End of story. And D'Andre Swift also injured his shoulder, paving the way for a terrific Jamaal Williams performance. Like Cook, Swift appears to be an annual higher-than-normal injury risk. If you don't want to deal with "Will-he-or-won't-he-play" dilemmas, you might want to trade Swift.
Patriots vs. Ravens -- Mac Jones will have an MRI on his ankle today and could miss multiple weeks. New England's sub-par passing attack assuredly won't get better. And Rhamondre Stevenson looks like the most complete back on the team, though we'll need another week or two to understand what Bill Belichick is thinking. And a quiet return for J.K. Dobbins, though at least he's healthy. Still, it could be a month or more before we see any semblance of his 2020 abilities.
Jets vs. Bengals -- A disastrous day for Joe Flacco, removing any remaining doubt that Zach Wilson deserves his job back once he's ready. And Samaje Perine, folks. Samaje Perine. I've said this over and over again. Based on last year's usage, Joe Mixon is a higher-than-normal injury/regression risk. It's not a hot take. These are probabilities based on all NFL data going back to the 1930's. If you have Mixon, get Perine. If you have Perine, cash out if your opponent sees the writing on the wall. Otherwise, hold steady.
Commanders vs. Eagles -- Philly's defense is for real. That said, I'm struck by Terry McLaurin's back-to-back impressive showings after a quiet Week 1 that brought back bad memories of (most of) last season. At least for now, McLaurin looks like a weekly fantasy starter. And DeVonta Smith does it again. As PFN Pass subscribers know, he was my overall 84th-ranked player vs. an overall 93 ADP. Not a big difference, but a slight "buy." He was a first-round draft pick for a reason. As long as Jalen Hurts can feed his three top receivers (including Dallas Goedert), the sky's the limit.
Panthers vs. Saints -- Carolina paid D.J. Moore this offseason, so his invisibility in this offense is tough to understand. I'd buy low, because talent is talent. But "how low" is the question. I wouldn't pay top-24-WR value. And Jameis Winston's broken ribs remain troubling for an offense that was supposed to take a step forward. Big props to those who drafte Chris Olave, who's left Jarvis Landry in the dust.
Chargers vs. Jaguars -- Austin Ekeler continues to scuffle, and it's no longer an anomaly. Something's up. And James Robinson continued to play ahead of Travis Etienne, which honestly surprises me, but based on productivity, it's obviously understandable.
Cardinals vs. Rams -- Kyler Murray attempted 58 passes while averaging only 5.4 yards per attempt. Beyond the big numbers for his key receivers, he hasn't looked the same since early last season. And a goal-line fumble prevented Cam Akers from (possibly) retaking the #1 RB role from Darrell Henderson. Next week could be the decider.
Seahawks vs. Falcons -- I sound like a broken record, but Rashaad Penny remains a better on-the-field RB than fantasy RB. No TDs + one reception = (usually) unstartable. And Kyle Pitts finally got going, as expected. But since Atlanta won't get to play Seattle every week, this is a good sell-high moment.
Buccaneers vs. Packers -- Leonard Fournette has struggled to move the ball on the ground the past two weeks. Once the Bucs' receivers get healthy, we'll have a better sense whether Fournette is the liability I thought he'd be this summer, or if he'll thrive once the passing game gets going. And Romeo Doubs looked like Aaron Rodgers' new #1 WR. Still need a week or two for the dust to settle. Of course, if you have Doubs, it's a great time to sell high, because this offense will continue to be more run-friendly.
Broncos vs. 49ers -- Through three weeks, I've been completely wrong about Russell Wilson. As always, is it the coaching staff? Is it him? Very troubling, and I don't know what to advise, because I'd still trade for him. But how patient can fantasy managers be? And I thought Brandon Aiyuk would take a hit with George Kittle back. Didn't play out that way last night. Will be fascinating to see how these two, plus Deebo Samuel, are utilized in a Jimmy G.-led (i.e. barely middling passing QB) attack.