Early in the third quarter, I could sense some "I told you so's" from those who believed I'd short-changed the Chargers. You were right then, and you were right despite the Chiefs' comeback. The fact is, L.A. was poised to go up seven with about 10 minutes left, and in the span of about 10 seconds, they were down seven and never recovered. They were more than good enough to win this game, and I underestimated their ability to move the ball in hostile territory without Keenan Allen.
Credit their defense, Mike Williams, fourth-quarter Austin Ekeler, and timely catches by Gerald Everett and Joshua Palmer for keeping this close, and of course Justin Herbert. On a personal level, I'm thrilled Herbert came through in my Week 2 matchup. But it still surprised me, as I thought he'd have more trouble keeping drives going. Williams, Everett, and Ekeler had 10 targets apiece. Palmer had eight. Those stats, paired with weak rushing numbers, give the impression that Herbert was playing catchup. Rarely does a team enter the fourth quarter with a lead, and their QB ends up with 13 more pass attempts than the opposing QB.
But L.A. didn't do enough to establish the run--or couldn't do enough. This makes two straight poor-rushing efforts for Ekeler. Interestingly, he's had less than 3.0 YPC four times in his career when rushing 10+ times. Two of those times have come in these first two games of 2022. He'll get Jacksonville and Houston next, so there's no need to overreact. But yeah, we should at least *react*. Whether it's the offensive line or Ekeler or both, he's off to a low start on the ground (and of course, a great start through the air). Something to keep an eye on these next two games.
Also looking ahead, I believe Everett would be a great sell-high candidate in deep leagues. He has 125 yards and a touchdown. On pace for 1,063 yards and nine touchdowns. So yeah, it's safe to say most people believe that won't happen. But could you market him as a top-8 TE? Maybe. And if so, I'd unload him. Last week he stepped up after Keenan was knocked out. He's never exceeded 500 yards in a season and couldn't maintain a starting job in Seattle. He's dropped 10 passes on 125 targets in the last two seasons, contributing to a pedestrian (for TEs) 65% career catch rate.
We're entering the next phase of the season, when player values oscillate wildly before settling into some new normal. Everett will be an oscillator this season, and I believe not in a good way. So is Palmer. For the Chiefs, Isiah Pacheco (remember him?) fits into that category. So does JuJu Smith-Schuster, despite looking like the clear No. 1 heading into last night. MVS somehow co-led all Chiefs receivers in targets. In typical MVS fashion, he caught only two. (He has a 50% career catch rate). He's one step below oscillator: boom-bust.
There are players we know will help us win, as long as they're healthy. Herbert, Mahomes, Keenan, etc. Then there are guys we might be concerned about, but who should be fine, like Ekeler and Williams. Then come the oscillators . . . the biggest stressors for so many of us. One week they're up, the next week they're invisible. Timing is everything, and it's often hard to time them right. On the whole, we know who to start and who to bench. But those oscillators keep us guessing.
Which is why when I have an oscillator, I wait until they pop, and then sell high. Get off the roller coaster. Lock in more assured value. That doesn't mean we get greedy. If I could trade Everett for George Kittle, I absolutely would. If my opponent offered me "only" T.J. Hockenson, I probably would. If they offered me Dalton Schultz, out of concern that he'll be useless while Dak's out, I absolutely would.
Of course, if you believe someone like Everett is a near-elite TE, there's no point abandoning him. Trust yourself and what you're observing. Maybe his "new normal" is an 80/750/8 season. But from where I'm sitting, once Keenan returns, Everett will revert to the #4 or #5 option in a pretty top-heavy offense featuring Ekeler, Keenan, and Williams, who should command roughly 35 targets/touches per game. Add in Palmer, Sony Michel, Joshua Kelley, and others, and it's not hard to envision Everett reverting to the top 14-18 range.
And now, the winners of the closest-score contest . . . We actually have two winners: Rick Easterly and Kevin Buckley. Both picked the exact final score (27-24 Chiefs). Rick won multiple times last year. As for Kevin, I can't remember (Kevin, feel free to share if you won last year). So I've updated the spreadsheet to included these two fantastic score pickers. Let them serve as examples to which we should all aspire. Congrats Rick and Kevin!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13SZPKEL8x861lE5yy4_E8fPS5D9jVXmMf1d7BXi9Aws/edit#gid=1358794746
Credit their defense, Mike Williams, fourth-quarter Austin Ekeler, and timely catches by Gerald Everett and Joshua Palmer for keeping this close, and of course Justin Herbert. On a personal level, I'm thrilled Herbert came through in my Week 2 matchup. But it still surprised me, as I thought he'd have more trouble keeping drives going. Williams, Everett, and Ekeler had 10 targets apiece. Palmer had eight. Those stats, paired with weak rushing numbers, give the impression that Herbert was playing catchup. Rarely does a team enter the fourth quarter with a lead, and their QB ends up with 13 more pass attempts than the opposing QB.
But L.A. didn't do enough to establish the run--or couldn't do enough. This makes two straight poor-rushing efforts for Ekeler. Interestingly, he's had less than 3.0 YPC four times in his career when rushing 10+ times. Two of those times have come in these first two games of 2022. He'll get Jacksonville and Houston next, so there's no need to overreact. But yeah, we should at least *react*. Whether it's the offensive line or Ekeler or both, he's off to a low start on the ground (and of course, a great start through the air). Something to keep an eye on these next two games.
Also looking ahead, I believe Everett would be a great sell-high candidate in deep leagues. He has 125 yards and a touchdown. On pace for 1,063 yards and nine touchdowns. So yeah, it's safe to say most people believe that won't happen. But could you market him as a top-8 TE? Maybe. And if so, I'd unload him. Last week he stepped up after Keenan was knocked out. He's never exceeded 500 yards in a season and couldn't maintain a starting job in Seattle. He's dropped 10 passes on 125 targets in the last two seasons, contributing to a pedestrian (for TEs) 65% career catch rate.
We're entering the next phase of the season, when player values oscillate wildly before settling into some new normal. Everett will be an oscillator this season, and I believe not in a good way. So is Palmer. For the Chiefs, Isiah Pacheco (remember him?) fits into that category. So does JuJu Smith-Schuster, despite looking like the clear No. 1 heading into last night. MVS somehow co-led all Chiefs receivers in targets. In typical MVS fashion, he caught only two. (He has a 50% career catch rate). He's one step below oscillator: boom-bust.
There are players we know will help us win, as long as they're healthy. Herbert, Mahomes, Keenan, etc. Then there are guys we might be concerned about, but who should be fine, like Ekeler and Williams. Then come the oscillators . . . the biggest stressors for so many of us. One week they're up, the next week they're invisible. Timing is everything, and it's often hard to time them right. On the whole, we know who to start and who to bench. But those oscillators keep us guessing.
Which is why when I have an oscillator, I wait until they pop, and then sell high. Get off the roller coaster. Lock in more assured value. That doesn't mean we get greedy. If I could trade Everett for George Kittle, I absolutely would. If my opponent offered me "only" T.J. Hockenson, I probably would. If they offered me Dalton Schultz, out of concern that he'll be useless while Dak's out, I absolutely would.
Of course, if you believe someone like Everett is a near-elite TE, there's no point abandoning him. Trust yourself and what you're observing. Maybe his "new normal" is an 80/750/8 season. But from where I'm sitting, once Keenan returns, Everett will revert to the #4 or #5 option in a pretty top-heavy offense featuring Ekeler, Keenan, and Williams, who should command roughly 35 targets/touches per game. Add in Palmer, Sony Michel, Joshua Kelley, and others, and it's not hard to envision Everett reverting to the top 14-18 range.
And now, the winners of the closest-score contest . . . We actually have two winners: Rick Easterly and Kevin Buckley. Both picked the exact final score (27-24 Chiefs). Rick won multiple times last year. As for Kevin, I can't remember (Kevin, feel free to share if you won last year). So I've updated the spreadsheet to included these two fantastic score pickers. Let them serve as examples to which we should all aspire. Congrats Rick and Kevin!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13SZPKEL8x861lE5yy4_E8fPS5D9jVXmMf1d7BXi9Aws/edit#gid=1358794746