This past Sunday, the Chiefs made the Cardinals look like a 5-12 team. Tonight they'll head home to face the seemingly tougher Chargers. I'm starting Justin Herbert in the PFFL league. Not thrilled about it, to be honest, and not just because he'll be without Keenan Allen. And yeah, Kansas City will be missing impressive rookie cornerback Trent McDuffie. But if Mike Williams doesn't step up (a clear possibility), could this game get out of hand quickly?
So much depends on whether the Chargers can contain Patrick Mahomes. When Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce dominated targets, defenses could at least anticipate. Whether that anticipation led to results was another issue -- like the last time these teams met, when K.C. was held to only 13 points with eight minutes left in regulation, before the floodgates finally opened for Hill and Kelce.
This year, it's not about stopping Kelce. Or JuJu Smith-Schuster. Or Mecole Hardman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, or even Skyy Moore. It's an inverted blitz. An offensive blitz. A flooding of personnel who are more athletic and versatile (I believe) than any collection of receivers Mahomes as thrown to.
We can see a scenario where Kansas City jumps out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, and the Chargers are forced to semi-abandon the run. While Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel combined for 11 carries on Sunday, that won't happen with a negative game script. The same goes for Austin Ekeler's 14 carries. Yes, I like Ekeler rebounding today, but more in the passing game, particularly with Keenan out.
It's hard to trust Herbert because it's hard to trust Williams, and because Joshua Palmer is only "theoretically" a rising star, and because DeAndre Carter's 64 yards and a score a few days ago ignore the reality that he bounced around the Eagles, Texans, and Commanders before landing L.A.'s #4 WR role. And what does it say about Palmer that he's not entering this contest as the clear #2 alongside Williams?
And don't get me started on Tre' McKitty, a 2021 third-round draft pick who could push Gerald Everett all season.
My big takeaways heading into this game are (1) I don't see how the Chargers keep this game within a touchdown, and (2) I avoid assessing player values based on touchdowns. Carter and Everett scoring last week have almost no bearing on who might score tonight. #1 RBs and #1 WRs are exceptions, in that with few exceptions, they're at least reasonable bets (30%-40%) to score any given week, barring a brutally tough matchup. Ekeler is the same "good" bet tonight as he was in Week 1. If any Charger is scoring besides Herbert, Ekeler has the highest probability.
And yeah, I haven't mentioned CEH, mostly because I'm still not clear what his role will be. The Chiefs didn't need him that much last weekend, yet he looked great when he got the ball. So in Year 3, is he ready to turn a corner? Or will Isiah Pacheco and even Jerick McKinnon cap his ceiling? It's too soon to know. But his three receptions were reassuring. As long as he's involved on passing downs, his floor should be high enough to start as a top-24 RB, with or without a touchdown (or two).
I'm predicting a 32-15 Chiefs victory, which is a Scorigami. Leave your prediction below if you want to compete in this ongoing free, mostly meaningless (except for the heartfelt shout-outs) contest. And if you're just as concerned about Herbert as I am, feel free to commiserate. And if you're bullish, I look forward to your reassurances.
So much depends on whether the Chargers can contain Patrick Mahomes. When Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce dominated targets, defenses could at least anticipate. Whether that anticipation led to results was another issue -- like the last time these teams met, when K.C. was held to only 13 points with eight minutes left in regulation, before the floodgates finally opened for Hill and Kelce.
This year, it's not about stopping Kelce. Or JuJu Smith-Schuster. Or Mecole Hardman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, or even Skyy Moore. It's an inverted blitz. An offensive blitz. A flooding of personnel who are more athletic and versatile (I believe) than any collection of receivers Mahomes as thrown to.
We can see a scenario where Kansas City jumps out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, and the Chargers are forced to semi-abandon the run. While Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel combined for 11 carries on Sunday, that won't happen with a negative game script. The same goes for Austin Ekeler's 14 carries. Yes, I like Ekeler rebounding today, but more in the passing game, particularly with Keenan out.
It's hard to trust Herbert because it's hard to trust Williams, and because Joshua Palmer is only "theoretically" a rising star, and because DeAndre Carter's 64 yards and a score a few days ago ignore the reality that he bounced around the Eagles, Texans, and Commanders before landing L.A.'s #4 WR role. And what does it say about Palmer that he's not entering this contest as the clear #2 alongside Williams?
And don't get me started on Tre' McKitty, a 2021 third-round draft pick who could push Gerald Everett all season.
My big takeaways heading into this game are (1) I don't see how the Chargers keep this game within a touchdown, and (2) I avoid assessing player values based on touchdowns. Carter and Everett scoring last week have almost no bearing on who might score tonight. #1 RBs and #1 WRs are exceptions, in that with few exceptions, they're at least reasonable bets (30%-40%) to score any given week, barring a brutally tough matchup. Ekeler is the same "good" bet tonight as he was in Week 1. If any Charger is scoring besides Herbert, Ekeler has the highest probability.
And yeah, I haven't mentioned CEH, mostly because I'm still not clear what his role will be. The Chiefs didn't need him that much last weekend, yet he looked great when he got the ball. So in Year 3, is he ready to turn a corner? Or will Isiah Pacheco and even Jerick McKinnon cap his ceiling? It's too soon to know. But his three receptions were reassuring. As long as he's involved on passing downs, his floor should be high enough to start as a top-24 RB, with or without a touchdown (or two).
I'm predicting a 32-15 Chiefs victory, which is a Scorigami. Leave your prediction below if you want to compete in this ongoing free, mostly meaningless (except for the heartfelt shout-outs) contest. And if you're just as concerned about Herbert as I am, feel free to commiserate. And if you're bullish, I look forward to your reassurances.