On June 23rd I walked through the challenges Tennessee faced this season. Last year's AFC 1-seed was a "longshot" to make the playoffs because of a weakened passing attack and quite possibly the NFL's toughest schedule. After hearing repeatedly--including from a notable reporter--that there was no way Ryan Tannehill would lose his job this season, I walked through why Tennessee probably wouldn't have a choice. Once their playoff hopes were dashed, knowing they could cut ties with Tannehill after this season (for a price), the only logical solution would be to see what they have in rookie Malik Willis.
I didn't expect this to happen in Week 2. And what happened last night doesn't mean Willis will earn the start in Week 3. In fact, he arguably did worse than Tannehill. But the writing's on the wall. Tannehill is facing nearly impossible odds with a star running back who seems post-prime, a receiving corps that might need at least a year to become top 24, and a schedule that would make many QBs looks sub-par.
If you've invested in Treylon Burks, you might consider cashing out. Because if Willis does take over midseason, it's hard to imagine Burks posting top-50 numbers. The same goes for Derrick Henry, unfortunately. In his last five games (including last night), Derrickhe averaged roughly 2.9 YPC while collecting two TDs. In his five outings before that, he had 10 TDs and five straight 100+ yard games. When we factor in negative game scripts and his lack of usage in the passing game, there's only a very narrow path to weekly fantasy relevance. He's an older Rashaad Penny with a better track record and no clear competition.
I regret recommending him as a top-4 RB this summer. My thinking was that he'd return to some semblance of last year's or 2020's or 2019's version of Derrick Henry. 4.5 YPC. Goal-line carries. Etc. That the Titans would try to control the clock at the outset, and that he was still talented enough to make it work. While it's too soon to judge entirely, if I could trade him for top-14 RB value, I would in a heartbeat.
For Buffalo, not much to say. Even without Gabriel Davis, and despite Devin Singletary getting shut down, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and the rest of their offense pummeled the Titans. Fantasy-wise, they are what we expected. Again, not much to say.
As for Minnesota, Dalvin Cook is in an interesting spot. He's signed through the 2025 season, when he'll be 30 years old. But the team has a fairly easy out after this season. I discussed in the Fantasy Draft Kit, and it's importantly to bring up again. If Minnesota underwhelms and finds themselves longshots to make the playoffs by November, then we shouldn't be surprised if they unload Cook to a contender, and then either sign Alexander Mattison longer term, or start over in free agency or the draft. Paying eight figured each year to a 28-, 29-, 30-year-old RB makes very little sense for a team that might not win more than 10 games this season or next. At some point, they need to decide if that money should go elsewhere, especially if Cook is on the downside of his career. A midseason trade would dramatically alter the fantasy landscape for him, Mattison, and the starting RB he'd play with on his new team.
For the Eagles, what can be said about Jalen Hurts? 31 fantasy points in the first half. If their defense hadn't stepped up, he might have been forced to keep running/throwing, and 50 fantasy points would have been a strong possibility. Good to see DeVonta Smith get going; I wrote about him for PFN yesterday, highlighting that each of the last seven Super Bowl champions have had three productive pass catchers. Smith remains a nice buy-low WR. And great to see Miles Sanders running well, and his 11.6 fantasy points despite not scoring is very good by Sanders' standards (good understated fantasy team name: "Sanders' Standards").
For the closest-score competitions, congratulations to Gary Beardmore for picking the Bills 34-17. He was one point closer than my guess of 30-14. Great job, Gary? And for the later nightcap, apparently I won, picking the Eagles 27-20. Some of you came close. I feel terrible about winning. But at the same time, I feel great. Joining Gary and past winners in the Winners Circle feels better than I expected.
Have a great Tuesday.
I didn't expect this to happen in Week 2. And what happened last night doesn't mean Willis will earn the start in Week 3. In fact, he arguably did worse than Tannehill. But the writing's on the wall. Tannehill is facing nearly impossible odds with a star running back who seems post-prime, a receiving corps that might need at least a year to become top 24, and a schedule that would make many QBs looks sub-par.
If you've invested in Treylon Burks, you might consider cashing out. Because if Willis does take over midseason, it's hard to imagine Burks posting top-50 numbers. The same goes for Derrick Henry, unfortunately. In his last five games (including last night), Derrickhe averaged roughly 2.9 YPC while collecting two TDs. In his five outings before that, he had 10 TDs and five straight 100+ yard games. When we factor in negative game scripts and his lack of usage in the passing game, there's only a very narrow path to weekly fantasy relevance. He's an older Rashaad Penny with a better track record and no clear competition.
I regret recommending him as a top-4 RB this summer. My thinking was that he'd return to some semblance of last year's or 2020's or 2019's version of Derrick Henry. 4.5 YPC. Goal-line carries. Etc. That the Titans would try to control the clock at the outset, and that he was still talented enough to make it work. While it's too soon to judge entirely, if I could trade him for top-14 RB value, I would in a heartbeat.
For Buffalo, not much to say. Even without Gabriel Davis, and despite Devin Singletary getting shut down, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and the rest of their offense pummeled the Titans. Fantasy-wise, they are what we expected. Again, not much to say.
As for Minnesota, Dalvin Cook is in an interesting spot. He's signed through the 2025 season, when he'll be 30 years old. But the team has a fairly easy out after this season. I discussed in the Fantasy Draft Kit, and it's importantly to bring up again. If Minnesota underwhelms and finds themselves longshots to make the playoffs by November, then we shouldn't be surprised if they unload Cook to a contender, and then either sign Alexander Mattison longer term, or start over in free agency or the draft. Paying eight figured each year to a 28-, 29-, 30-year-old RB makes very little sense for a team that might not win more than 10 games this season or next. At some point, they need to decide if that money should go elsewhere, especially if Cook is on the downside of his career. A midseason trade would dramatically alter the fantasy landscape for him, Mattison, and the starting RB he'd play with on his new team.
For the Eagles, what can be said about Jalen Hurts? 31 fantasy points in the first half. If their defense hadn't stepped up, he might have been forced to keep running/throwing, and 50 fantasy points would have been a strong possibility. Good to see DeVonta Smith get going; I wrote about him for PFN yesterday, highlighting that each of the last seven Super Bowl champions have had three productive pass catchers. Smith remains a nice buy-low WR. And great to see Miles Sanders running well, and his 11.6 fantasy points despite not scoring is very good by Sanders' standards (good understated fantasy team name: "Sanders' Standards").
For the closest-score competitions, congratulations to Gary Beardmore for picking the Bills 34-17. He was one point closer than my guess of 30-14. Great job, Gary? And for the later nightcap, apparently I won, picking the Eagles 27-20. Some of you came close. I feel terrible about winning. But at the same time, I feel great. Joining Gary and past winners in the Winners Circle feels better than I expected.
Have a great Tuesday.