Well that was a fascinating/thrilling/upsetting (take your pick) opening weekend of football. As I've done over the years, the following is my biggest fantasy takeaway for each Sunday team, and how it might impact our thinking heading into Week 2. And for tonight's game, I'm predicting the Broncos will win 34-13. Feel free to leave your prediction below, and the winner will join the honor circle currently occupied by Craig Mavis.
Falcons vs. Saints -- Tyler Allgeier was a late scratch, and then Damien Williams got hurt. Either way, Cordarrelle Patterson was this team's MVP once again. I'd be shocked if the 31-year-old can keep it up, especially on the ground. The problem is that there's no other Atlanta RB worth rostering--not even a handcuff--because even if Patterson got hurt, it seems clear the team probably won't commit to any one RB currently on their roster. As for the Saints, great to see Michael Thomas back in form. He was quiet for a while and reportedly on a snap count. But can't argue with well-timed playmaking. Here's hoping he's really "back."
Bears vs. 49ers -- Did not expect the Bears to win, especially with Darnell Mooney getting shut down. The biggest fantasy story is Khalil Herbert, which shouldn't have been surprising, as David Montgomery did little last season or this summer to solidify his #1 team standing. This looks like an unofficial timeshare going forward. And Elijah Mitchell's injury: he had career-high (including college, of course) rushing attempts and total touches last year. Was never a bellcow as an undergrad. Is this going to be a problem going forward, even if he can return to the field soon? For now, Jeff Wilson is an obvious must-add, though Mitchell's hold on the job ultimately seems strong.
Bengals vs. Steelers -- Another surprising result, aided in part by Tee Higgins' early departure, as well as some terrific Steelers defense that kept Joe Burrow shockingly off-balance. Pay close attention to Joe Mixon's 3.0 YPC, which followed a very inefficient second half of the 2021 season. He was much lower in my rankings than his ADP, because his 400+ touches (including the playoffs) last season made him a higher-than-normal injury/regression risk. I remain concerned about his productivity going forward. And of course Najee Harris's foot injury is yet another reason to feel deservedly wary of whether Harris is primed for another top-10 RB season.
Lions vs. Eagles -- Jared Goff got going when it mattered most. Yes, D'Andre Swift crushed it. But the bigger fantasy story is Goff fighting back against a tough defense and giving superflex managers something to build on. He needed to avoid a disaster, and he did (for now). As for Philadelphia, DeVonta Smith was invisible. Yes, I'd buy low, because Smith is a superb young receiver, and it's inconceivable that he won't be featured at least semi-prominently during the season. Week 1 was about getting A.J. Brown going. Mission accomplished. I'm not worried about Smith yet.
Dolphins vs. Patriots -- The first team to beat Bill Belichick four times in a row, Miami won it on both sides of the ball. Fantasy-wise, Jaylen Waddle went toe-to-toe with Tyreek Hill. That's what you want to see on a team that likely can feed only two receivers per game. And Mac Jones's injury could throw New England's offense into even more chaos. Tests were negative, so maybe he'll be back. Or maybe this is an opportunity for Belichick to rest him and see what one of his backups can do. Either way, nothing's changed: Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are the only Patriots worth rostering in most leagues.
Jets vs. Ravens -- Michael Carter looked terrific, period. Breece Hall will get his opportunities. For now, those who drafted Carter late got a steal. Now sell high if you can. Look at their schedule through November 20th. I wouldn't want to rely on any Jets RB these next two months. For Baltimore, don't overreact to the low reception totals for Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman. It was a Devin Duvernay day. That doesn't make him a co-#1 in this offense. I believe Lamar Jackson took what was available. With adjustments and a healthier backfield, Andrews and Bateman should be fine.
Commanders vs. Jaguars -- An impressive comeback for Carson Wentz & company. Antonio Gibson is the biggest story. He looked like the Gibson of old. Let's see how he does against a tougher defense--and remember that Brian Robinson hopes to return sooner rather than later. For Jacksonville, I was surprised that Zay Jones was the clear #2 for most of the game. Shouldn't have been surprised, but still, he earned everything he got. In the end, Marvin Jones wasn't far behind, so let's see how this semi-battle plays out, and whether either can be streamable.
Panthers vs. Browns -- I was convinced the stars were aligned for Carolina in this one. Baker Mayfield looked at times decent and at times not-at-all. CMC ran pretty poorly. Aside from a broken-play TD to Robbie Anderson, things would have looked much worse. As it stands, it will be hard to trust this offense, and as I've warned since the summer, it'll be hard to trust CMC as a top-10 RB if Carolina curtails his usage to keep him fresher. For Cleveland, I was completely wrong about Kareem Hunt, who crushed it on 15 touches, despite the fact that Nick Chubb dominated on 23 touches. This is the key for Cleveland these next 10 weeks: don't put too much on Jacoby Brissett.
Texans vs. Colts -- Again, an incredibly surprising result. The most notable fantasy storyline for Houston was Rex Burkhead out-touching Dameon Pierce 19-12, and that doesn't include three additional targets for Burkhead that weren't caught. If this continues, it would be a fantasy nightmare for those who drafted Pierce thinking he'd be the bellcow. On a team that'll probably finish in the bottom 6 in points scored, Pierce needs to be "the guy" to maintain weekly fantasy startability. And Nyheim Hines came through with a 6-50 receiving line. Also note that Jonathan Taylor had seven targets. It'll be interesting to see whether Hines' usage was partly due to comeback mode, or if he can be a four-quarter contributor.
Titans vs. Giants -- What the heck? A brutal loss for Tennessee. I've discussed repeatedly how tough their schedule will get, and that they're longshots to reach the postseason. We might look back on this loss as the clearest sign that this isn't a playoff team. Dontrell Hilliard solidified his status as a high-end RB handcuff with stand-alone PPR value. Yeah, the TDs were great. But as long as he's used in the passing game (since Derrick Henry rarely is), Hilliard could be a Tony-Pollard-like streamer.
Vikings vs. Packers -- I wouldn't give up on Adam Thielen yet. Yes, Justin Jefferson was in MVP form. But Thielen was #2 in receiving yards, and this game was mostly in hand by the middle of the third quarter. I'd buy low on Thielen, especially given how low his market value probably is at the moment. And A.J. Dillon outplayed Aaron Jones. Not surprising, and don't get caught up with who's better which week (I know, it's hard). This likely will remain a back-and-forth backfield. If you have both, start both and trust you'll get 25+ combined point most weeks.
Cardinals vs. Chiefs -- I had assumed a game script favoring Arizona moving the ball effectively with James Conner, Marquise Brown, and Zach Ertz, along with a spry Kyler Murray. On the whole, none of that happened. The biggest fantasy story is the ascending Eno Benjamin, who's on Conner injury away from fantasy prominence. And while Clyde Edwards-Helaire was one of the day's big fantasy heroes, Isiah Pacheco pushed his way into relevance after a stellar preseason. Hard to ignore what he did, even against the deflated Cardinals.
Chargers vs. Raiders -- Keenan Allen will need to heal fast to be ready for the next game. DeAndre Carter might be one of the bigger WR waiver adds this week. And I have to mention (because many of us are thinking about it) that Mike Williams played like his pre-conract-year self. Here's hoping he steps up when the team needs him most. For Las Vegas, it was mostly Davante-Adams-or-bust. That's not a recipe for the postseason. I'm curious whether Zamir White will be active next week. Josh Jacobs ran well, but with Bolden hurting his hamstring, we could see White or Ameer Abdullah soon--and I still believe White can pull even with Jacobs by midseason.
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers -- As I'm writing this, the severity of Dak Prescott's injury remains unclear. It was a disastrous Week 1 loss on a day when many "good" teams looked "not good." If Dak misses time, of course it was be horrendous for those rostering CeeDee Lamb and the returning Michael Gallup. And Chris Godwin exited early. If he has to miss time, Julio Jones appears to be the #2. What a great story for Julio, and (if Godwin sits) what a great find for those desperate for a WR flier in the back of your starting lineup.
Falcons vs. Saints -- Tyler Allgeier was a late scratch, and then Damien Williams got hurt. Either way, Cordarrelle Patterson was this team's MVP once again. I'd be shocked if the 31-year-old can keep it up, especially on the ground. The problem is that there's no other Atlanta RB worth rostering--not even a handcuff--because even if Patterson got hurt, it seems clear the team probably won't commit to any one RB currently on their roster. As for the Saints, great to see Michael Thomas back in form. He was quiet for a while and reportedly on a snap count. But can't argue with well-timed playmaking. Here's hoping he's really "back."
Bears vs. 49ers -- Did not expect the Bears to win, especially with Darnell Mooney getting shut down. The biggest fantasy story is Khalil Herbert, which shouldn't have been surprising, as David Montgomery did little last season or this summer to solidify his #1 team standing. This looks like an unofficial timeshare going forward. And Elijah Mitchell's injury: he had career-high (including college, of course) rushing attempts and total touches last year. Was never a bellcow as an undergrad. Is this going to be a problem going forward, even if he can return to the field soon? For now, Jeff Wilson is an obvious must-add, though Mitchell's hold on the job ultimately seems strong.
Bengals vs. Steelers -- Another surprising result, aided in part by Tee Higgins' early departure, as well as some terrific Steelers defense that kept Joe Burrow shockingly off-balance. Pay close attention to Joe Mixon's 3.0 YPC, which followed a very inefficient second half of the 2021 season. He was much lower in my rankings than his ADP, because his 400+ touches (including the playoffs) last season made him a higher-than-normal injury/regression risk. I remain concerned about his productivity going forward. And of course Najee Harris's foot injury is yet another reason to feel deservedly wary of whether Harris is primed for another top-10 RB season.
Lions vs. Eagles -- Jared Goff got going when it mattered most. Yes, D'Andre Swift crushed it. But the bigger fantasy story is Goff fighting back against a tough defense and giving superflex managers something to build on. He needed to avoid a disaster, and he did (for now). As for Philadelphia, DeVonta Smith was invisible. Yes, I'd buy low, because Smith is a superb young receiver, and it's inconceivable that he won't be featured at least semi-prominently during the season. Week 1 was about getting A.J. Brown going. Mission accomplished. I'm not worried about Smith yet.
Dolphins vs. Patriots -- The first team to beat Bill Belichick four times in a row, Miami won it on both sides of the ball. Fantasy-wise, Jaylen Waddle went toe-to-toe with Tyreek Hill. That's what you want to see on a team that likely can feed only two receivers per game. And Mac Jones's injury could throw New England's offense into even more chaos. Tests were negative, so maybe he'll be back. Or maybe this is an opportunity for Belichick to rest him and see what one of his backups can do. Either way, nothing's changed: Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are the only Patriots worth rostering in most leagues.
Jets vs. Ravens -- Michael Carter looked terrific, period. Breece Hall will get his opportunities. For now, those who drafted Carter late got a steal. Now sell high if you can. Look at their schedule through November 20th. I wouldn't want to rely on any Jets RB these next two months. For Baltimore, don't overreact to the low reception totals for Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman. It was a Devin Duvernay day. That doesn't make him a co-#1 in this offense. I believe Lamar Jackson took what was available. With adjustments and a healthier backfield, Andrews and Bateman should be fine.
Commanders vs. Jaguars -- An impressive comeback for Carson Wentz & company. Antonio Gibson is the biggest story. He looked like the Gibson of old. Let's see how he does against a tougher defense--and remember that Brian Robinson hopes to return sooner rather than later. For Jacksonville, I was surprised that Zay Jones was the clear #2 for most of the game. Shouldn't have been surprised, but still, he earned everything he got. In the end, Marvin Jones wasn't far behind, so let's see how this semi-battle plays out, and whether either can be streamable.
Panthers vs. Browns -- I was convinced the stars were aligned for Carolina in this one. Baker Mayfield looked at times decent and at times not-at-all. CMC ran pretty poorly. Aside from a broken-play TD to Robbie Anderson, things would have looked much worse. As it stands, it will be hard to trust this offense, and as I've warned since the summer, it'll be hard to trust CMC as a top-10 RB if Carolina curtails his usage to keep him fresher. For Cleveland, I was completely wrong about Kareem Hunt, who crushed it on 15 touches, despite the fact that Nick Chubb dominated on 23 touches. This is the key for Cleveland these next 10 weeks: don't put too much on Jacoby Brissett.
Texans vs. Colts -- Again, an incredibly surprising result. The most notable fantasy storyline for Houston was Rex Burkhead out-touching Dameon Pierce 19-12, and that doesn't include three additional targets for Burkhead that weren't caught. If this continues, it would be a fantasy nightmare for those who drafted Pierce thinking he'd be the bellcow. On a team that'll probably finish in the bottom 6 in points scored, Pierce needs to be "the guy" to maintain weekly fantasy startability. And Nyheim Hines came through with a 6-50 receiving line. Also note that Jonathan Taylor had seven targets. It'll be interesting to see whether Hines' usage was partly due to comeback mode, or if he can be a four-quarter contributor.
Titans vs. Giants -- What the heck? A brutal loss for Tennessee. I've discussed repeatedly how tough their schedule will get, and that they're longshots to reach the postseason. We might look back on this loss as the clearest sign that this isn't a playoff team. Dontrell Hilliard solidified his status as a high-end RB handcuff with stand-alone PPR value. Yeah, the TDs were great. But as long as he's used in the passing game (since Derrick Henry rarely is), Hilliard could be a Tony-Pollard-like streamer.
Vikings vs. Packers -- I wouldn't give up on Adam Thielen yet. Yes, Justin Jefferson was in MVP form. But Thielen was #2 in receiving yards, and this game was mostly in hand by the middle of the third quarter. I'd buy low on Thielen, especially given how low his market value probably is at the moment. And A.J. Dillon outplayed Aaron Jones. Not surprising, and don't get caught up with who's better which week (I know, it's hard). This likely will remain a back-and-forth backfield. If you have both, start both and trust you'll get 25+ combined point most weeks.
Cardinals vs. Chiefs -- I had assumed a game script favoring Arizona moving the ball effectively with James Conner, Marquise Brown, and Zach Ertz, along with a spry Kyler Murray. On the whole, none of that happened. The biggest fantasy story is the ascending Eno Benjamin, who's on Conner injury away from fantasy prominence. And while Clyde Edwards-Helaire was one of the day's big fantasy heroes, Isiah Pacheco pushed his way into relevance after a stellar preseason. Hard to ignore what he did, even against the deflated Cardinals.
Chargers vs. Raiders -- Keenan Allen will need to heal fast to be ready for the next game. DeAndre Carter might be one of the bigger WR waiver adds this week. And I have to mention (because many of us are thinking about it) that Mike Williams played like his pre-conract-year self. Here's hoping he steps up when the team needs him most. For Las Vegas, it was mostly Davante-Adams-or-bust. That's not a recipe for the postseason. I'm curious whether Zamir White will be active next week. Josh Jacobs ran well, but with Bolden hurting his hamstring, we could see White or Ameer Abdullah soon--and I still believe White can pull even with Jacobs by midseason.
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers -- As I'm writing this, the severity of Dak Prescott's injury remains unclear. It was a disastrous Week 1 loss on a day when many "good" teams looked "not good." If Dak misses time, of course it was be horrendous for those rostering CeeDee Lamb and the returning Michael Gallup. And Chris Godwin exited early. If he has to miss time, Julio Jones appears to be the #2. What a great story for Julio, and (if Godwin sits) what a great find for those desperate for a WR flier in the back of your starting lineup.