Here's a quick run-through of the biggest fantasy question I'm tracking for each Sunday team, which could help inform players' shifting values. As always, some of this might not be fun to read. You might have drafted someone in the first round and think, "What does BJ know? I got a fantasy stud, period." And as most of you know, I'm not here to make friends (although as most of you know, I have a soft spot for friends). So take this for what it is: one person's view of the fantasy landscape, and if I dump on one of your best players, always feel free to push back and tell me why I'm wrong.
Falcons vs. Saints -- How much of a liability will Marcus Mariota be? Drake London could be a consistent fantasy starter, and Kyle Pitts is Kyle Pitts. I'm watching to see if Mariota can be a top-20 QB, or if he'll struggle to move the ball, which might cap the ceilings of his key receivers for the foreseeable future (until/unless Desmond Ridder takes over). Also, if Michael Thomas plays, will he be 3-37-0 Thomas or 8-75-1 Thomas? Maybe somewhere in between? He's the biggest wild card in this game.
Bears vs. 49ers -- We saw Darrell Henderson assume the 1A role for the Rams. Can Khalil Herbert do the same alongside presumptive starter David Montgomery? And how effectively can Trey Lance move San Francisco's offense? I think we'll know by tomorrow if he was a likely fantasy steal--and by extension, whether guys like Deebo Samuel and even Brandon Aiyuk can meet or even exceed expectations.
Bengals vs. Steelers -- I have an outsized view of Cincinnati's prospects, firmly believing in the fantasy greatness of everyone from Joe Burrow to Hayden Hurst (fantasy "goodness" rather than greatness for Hurst, to be fair). Still, I've warned repeatedly about Joe Mixon's over-usage last season. He's a significant regression/injury risk. I'm very interested in seeing how the Bengals utilize him, and whether Samaje Perine and/or Chris Evans take on a true 1B role, rather than a mere handcuff / mop-up role.
Lions vs. Eagles -- Can Jared Goff be the QB I believe he can be in 2022? I like him hitting 275+ yards and 2+ TDs tomorrow. His offensive weapons are improved and healthy compared to most of last year. He has no excuses if he bombs. And how will Philly's backfield operate? Miles Sanders was faded in more drafts than possibly any other supposed top-35 RB. I remain all-in on Kenneth Gainwell, as I have been since the middle of last season. Gainwell brings bellcow abilities to a running game that can't rely solely on Sanders.
Dolphins vs. Patriots -- See above re: Goff, but insert Tua Tagovailoa's name. And to be candid, I'm also facinated by Miami's backfield, and whether Chase Edmonds can run away with the 1A job--or if Raheem Mostert and/or Myles Gaskin will cap him. For New England, will Damien Harris or Rhamondre Stevenson be the 1A? Or will it still be muddled after Sunday? I had a chance to take both backs at the turn in my Wednesday draft, and decided to pick value elsewhere. I might regret it if one of these guys (I've been betting on Rhamondre since June) steps up.
Jets vs. Ravens -- Michael Carter or Breece Hall? The latest buzz centers on Carter. I'll believe it when I see it. Regardless, another fascinating/frustrating backfield battle. And will Isaiah Likely become Lamar Jackson's No. 3 target? The rookie TE lit up the preseason. Baltimore seemingly knew what they were doing when they downgraded at WR this offseason. We'll have a better sense soon.
Commanders vs. Jaguars -- What will Washington's passing attack look like? Carson Wentz is an enigma, and he has two very capable wideouts. I looked this up the other day, because I was curious: how productive have Wentz's WRs been in recent years? Only one has exceeded 500 receiving yards in his past three seasons. In fairness, he had terrific TEs in Philadelphia. But that's a jarring stat, and it reinforces why I decided to fade Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson in my draft. Meanwhile, will Christian Kirk be "the guy" for Trevor Lawrence, or only "a guy"? Big fantasy implications.
Panthers vs. Browns -- Huge statement game for Baker Mayfield. If he flops, it would be a disaster. I believe he'll rise to the occasion, largely because of Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore. So yeah, I believe Baker's "revenge game" performance will be one of the biggest NFL stories Monday morning. And I also think there will be a lot of soul-searching in Cleveland after this one. We shouldn't be surprised if Jacoby Brissett throws for less than 175 yards, with Amari Cooper catching four passes for 29 yards on 11 targets. If I'm wrong, then the Browns will be much better than I expect.
Texans vs. Colts -- Is Dameon Pierce for real? And secondarily, is Nico Collins for real? One of these two--and maybe both--will almost have to be fantasy relevant this season, because it can't just be the Brandin Cooks show again. And on a Colts squad that features an elite RB and ascending near-elite WR, can Nyheim Hines and/or Alec Pierce become a reliable No. 3 offensive option? Just like Houston lacked a No. 2 last year, Indy lacked a No. 3, and they need it if they're going to make a deep playoff run.
Titans vs. Giants -- Who will be Ryan Tannehill's top target? I've been betting on Robert Woods since May. We'll see what Treylon Burks can do (and don't forget about Austin Hooper). And which version of Saquon Barkley will we see, and how much will we see him? Few NFL players offer such a vast realistic range of outcomes.
Vikings vs. Packers -- I want to see if Alexander Mattison gets more involved, not unlike Tony Pollard and A.J. Dillon on their respective teams. I'm betting on Mattison's usage to tick upward starting Week 1. Should've drafted him. Oh well. And will Romeo Doubs carry over his preseason success into the regular season? Aaron Rodgers has always had a go-to receiver. There's a clear path for Doubs (or someone) to be that guy.
Cardinals vs. Chiefs -- How much of a workload will James Conner take on? 14 touches? 18? I ranked him better than I probably should have this summer, largely because he can do so much. But he's also a potential regresion candidate if the Cardinals opt for a two-man backfield; don't be surprised if Darrel Williams or Eno Benjamin earns 7+ touches. And who will be Patrick Mahomes' preferred wideout? JuJu Smith-Schuster is a popular choice. Maybe Skyy Moore. it could be a challenging fantasy situation all season.
Chargers vs. Raiders -- Will it be the Austin Ekeler show in the Chargers' backfield, or will one of his three RB teammates take on an 8+ touch role? And I want to see how the Raiders operate their backfield. Have been sharply down on Josh Jacobs all summer, and up on Zamir White. White hasn't earned anything yet. Let's see how this plays out.
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers -- Will Tony Pollard outpeform Zeke Elliott? So much is at stake in fantasy and for this franchise, especially with Pollard's expiring contract and Zeke's hefty contract. And I'm very interested in seeing whether Tampa Bay utilizes Rachaad White or Ke'Shawn Vaughan, or if they once again go all in on Leonard Fournette.
Falcons vs. Saints -- How much of a liability will Marcus Mariota be? Drake London could be a consistent fantasy starter, and Kyle Pitts is Kyle Pitts. I'm watching to see if Mariota can be a top-20 QB, or if he'll struggle to move the ball, which might cap the ceilings of his key receivers for the foreseeable future (until/unless Desmond Ridder takes over). Also, if Michael Thomas plays, will he be 3-37-0 Thomas or 8-75-1 Thomas? Maybe somewhere in between? He's the biggest wild card in this game.
Bears vs. 49ers -- We saw Darrell Henderson assume the 1A role for the Rams. Can Khalil Herbert do the same alongside presumptive starter David Montgomery? And how effectively can Trey Lance move San Francisco's offense? I think we'll know by tomorrow if he was a likely fantasy steal--and by extension, whether guys like Deebo Samuel and even Brandon Aiyuk can meet or even exceed expectations.
Bengals vs. Steelers -- I have an outsized view of Cincinnati's prospects, firmly believing in the fantasy greatness of everyone from Joe Burrow to Hayden Hurst (fantasy "goodness" rather than greatness for Hurst, to be fair). Still, I've warned repeatedly about Joe Mixon's over-usage last season. He's a significant regression/injury risk. I'm very interested in seeing how the Bengals utilize him, and whether Samaje Perine and/or Chris Evans take on a true 1B role, rather than a mere handcuff / mop-up role.
Lions vs. Eagles -- Can Jared Goff be the QB I believe he can be in 2022? I like him hitting 275+ yards and 2+ TDs tomorrow. His offensive weapons are improved and healthy compared to most of last year. He has no excuses if he bombs. And how will Philly's backfield operate? Miles Sanders was faded in more drafts than possibly any other supposed top-35 RB. I remain all-in on Kenneth Gainwell, as I have been since the middle of last season. Gainwell brings bellcow abilities to a running game that can't rely solely on Sanders.
Dolphins vs. Patriots -- See above re: Goff, but insert Tua Tagovailoa's name. And to be candid, I'm also facinated by Miami's backfield, and whether Chase Edmonds can run away with the 1A job--or if Raheem Mostert and/or Myles Gaskin will cap him. For New England, will Damien Harris or Rhamondre Stevenson be the 1A? Or will it still be muddled after Sunday? I had a chance to take both backs at the turn in my Wednesday draft, and decided to pick value elsewhere. I might regret it if one of these guys (I've been betting on Rhamondre since June) steps up.
Jets vs. Ravens -- Michael Carter or Breece Hall? The latest buzz centers on Carter. I'll believe it when I see it. Regardless, another fascinating/frustrating backfield battle. And will Isaiah Likely become Lamar Jackson's No. 3 target? The rookie TE lit up the preseason. Baltimore seemingly knew what they were doing when they downgraded at WR this offseason. We'll have a better sense soon.
Commanders vs. Jaguars -- What will Washington's passing attack look like? Carson Wentz is an enigma, and he has two very capable wideouts. I looked this up the other day, because I was curious: how productive have Wentz's WRs been in recent years? Only one has exceeded 500 receiving yards in his past three seasons. In fairness, he had terrific TEs in Philadelphia. But that's a jarring stat, and it reinforces why I decided to fade Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson in my draft. Meanwhile, will Christian Kirk be "the guy" for Trevor Lawrence, or only "a guy"? Big fantasy implications.
Panthers vs. Browns -- Huge statement game for Baker Mayfield. If he flops, it would be a disaster. I believe he'll rise to the occasion, largely because of Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore. So yeah, I believe Baker's "revenge game" performance will be one of the biggest NFL stories Monday morning. And I also think there will be a lot of soul-searching in Cleveland after this one. We shouldn't be surprised if Jacoby Brissett throws for less than 175 yards, with Amari Cooper catching four passes for 29 yards on 11 targets. If I'm wrong, then the Browns will be much better than I expect.
Texans vs. Colts -- Is Dameon Pierce for real? And secondarily, is Nico Collins for real? One of these two--and maybe both--will almost have to be fantasy relevant this season, because it can't just be the Brandin Cooks show again. And on a Colts squad that features an elite RB and ascending near-elite WR, can Nyheim Hines and/or Alec Pierce become a reliable No. 3 offensive option? Just like Houston lacked a No. 2 last year, Indy lacked a No. 3, and they need it if they're going to make a deep playoff run.
Titans vs. Giants -- Who will be Ryan Tannehill's top target? I've been betting on Robert Woods since May. We'll see what Treylon Burks can do (and don't forget about Austin Hooper). And which version of Saquon Barkley will we see, and how much will we see him? Few NFL players offer such a vast realistic range of outcomes.
Vikings vs. Packers -- I want to see if Alexander Mattison gets more involved, not unlike Tony Pollard and A.J. Dillon on their respective teams. I'm betting on Mattison's usage to tick upward starting Week 1. Should've drafted him. Oh well. And will Romeo Doubs carry over his preseason success into the regular season? Aaron Rodgers has always had a go-to receiver. There's a clear path for Doubs (or someone) to be that guy.
Cardinals vs. Chiefs -- How much of a workload will James Conner take on? 14 touches? 18? I ranked him better than I probably should have this summer, largely because he can do so much. But he's also a potential regresion candidate if the Cardinals opt for a two-man backfield; don't be surprised if Darrel Williams or Eno Benjamin earns 7+ touches. And who will be Patrick Mahomes' preferred wideout? JuJu Smith-Schuster is a popular choice. Maybe Skyy Moore. it could be a challenging fantasy situation all season.
Chargers vs. Raiders -- Will it be the Austin Ekeler show in the Chargers' backfield, or will one of his three RB teammates take on an 8+ touch role? And I want to see how the Raiders operate their backfield. Have been sharply down on Josh Jacobs all summer, and up on Zamir White. White hasn't earned anything yet. Let's see how this plays out.
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers -- Will Tony Pollard outpeform Zeke Elliott? So much is at stake in fantasy and for this franchise, especially with Pollard's expiring contract and Zeke's hefty contract. And I'm very interested in seeing whether Tampa Bay utilizes Rachaad White or Ke'Shawn Vaughan, or if they once again go all in on Leonard Fournette.