Was that a weird Monday Night Football game? Let's say it was. When Melvin Gordon fumbled at the goal line, Twitter went nuts and Javonte Williams started trending, as fans and fantasy folks lamented that the "lead" RB didn't punch it in. Then Javonte got his chance, and he fumbled. And Twitter went silent. (Not really, but you know.)
Russell Wilson looked a bit older and rusty. He underthrew Jerry Jeudy on his one TD pass, which the stat sheet shows was a big play, but in reality was a terrible throw that Jeudy converted. It wasn't all Wilson's fault. Hardly. Two fumbles at the goal line proved to be much more than the difference. Had Wilson game-managed his way to a 13-point road win on national TV after trailing 7-0 on the opening drive, I think most people would have given him the benefit of the doubt.
I write this as someone who was--and still is--uber-high on Wilson compared to his muted preseason ADP. He, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow were my top three undervalued QB targets for most of the summer. Jared Goff was my "if all else fails, take a shot" flier.
I still expect Wilson to be a top-10 QB, matching or exceeding ADP expectations and helping some managers win the title. But last night hurt, because the Wilson of even a year or two ago might have run the ball in from the 1. Or done a play-action fake and fade to the back of the end zone to one of his exceptional pass-catchers. Essentially, he probably would have converted.
He threw 42 passes, which was tied with 10th-most in his career. He averaged 3.0 TDs per game in those other nine contests. He got only one last night. On a bad pass. Here's hoping he looks better next week.
Aside from Wilson, some key fantasy takeaways include Javonte Williams, who as some of you know was my RB4 this preseason. Yes, my RB4. He was my overall 7th-ranked player compared to an overall ADP of 25. Time will tell if this push made sense, but I put my money where my mouth was and drafted him #14 overall. Besides his fumble, he looked fantastic, and while Melvin Gordon (who I also drafted) played very well (again, besides his fumble), Javonte looks like the lead guy. Maybe a 60-40 split? 58-42 if we want to get cute? He needs only 15 touches a game to earn more than last year. He had 18 last night with a largely negative game script and was good for 12 targets, converting 11 of them. That's what we want out of a first-round draft pick.
For Seattle, I swung and missed on DeeJay Dallas, though in fairness, I believed the Seahawks would shift approaches in catch-up mode. Catch-up mode never happened, and Rashaad Penny remained front-and-center. That said, Penny remains the same TD-dependent guy he was this summer. I'm urging managers to sell high if you can. He'll have some nice 15+ point games when he scores. If he doesn't, expect less than nine points more often than not.
Meanwhile, D.K. Metcalf was my 75th-ranked player compared to an overall 47 ADP, while Lockett was a slight bargain at #85 (compared to a 96 ADP). Metcalf won this round, though barely. Assuming the Seahawks play from behind far more often than from ahead, we should see glimmers of fantasy relevance from both of them. But I'm not banking on either as weekly streamers. If they're facing a bad defense that can score buckets of points, then they're worth firing up. Besides that, we're hoping for a score to bail us out.
As for picking the closest score, only one of us predicted the Seahawks would win. Not only that, it was Chris Polen. Not only that, he guessed 20-17. That's dang close for being the only one to get the winner right. So a big congratulations to Chris for knowing what would happen. Those 30 (32?) years of fantasy football are really pay off for you. And because you've won, I've added you to the Winners Circle on the following spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13SZPKEL8x861lE5yy4_E8fPS5D9jVXmMf1d7BXi9Aws/edit#gid=1358794746
Late last night, I also updated the Fantasy Bingo contest with all of the Week 1 player points, including their multipliers. Tyler Nelson is in the lead with a diagonal that includes Lamar Jackson, Jonathan Taylor, Justin Jefferson, and Travis Kelce. We're coming for you, Tyler. (You too, Chris.)
Russell Wilson looked a bit older and rusty. He underthrew Jerry Jeudy on his one TD pass, which the stat sheet shows was a big play, but in reality was a terrible throw that Jeudy converted. It wasn't all Wilson's fault. Hardly. Two fumbles at the goal line proved to be much more than the difference. Had Wilson game-managed his way to a 13-point road win on national TV after trailing 7-0 on the opening drive, I think most people would have given him the benefit of the doubt.
I write this as someone who was--and still is--uber-high on Wilson compared to his muted preseason ADP. He, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow were my top three undervalued QB targets for most of the summer. Jared Goff was my "if all else fails, take a shot" flier.
I still expect Wilson to be a top-10 QB, matching or exceeding ADP expectations and helping some managers win the title. But last night hurt, because the Wilson of even a year or two ago might have run the ball in from the 1. Or done a play-action fake and fade to the back of the end zone to one of his exceptional pass-catchers. Essentially, he probably would have converted.
He threw 42 passes, which was tied with 10th-most in his career. He averaged 3.0 TDs per game in those other nine contests. He got only one last night. On a bad pass. Here's hoping he looks better next week.
Aside from Wilson, some key fantasy takeaways include Javonte Williams, who as some of you know was my RB4 this preseason. Yes, my RB4. He was my overall 7th-ranked player compared to an overall ADP of 25. Time will tell if this push made sense, but I put my money where my mouth was and drafted him #14 overall. Besides his fumble, he looked fantastic, and while Melvin Gordon (who I also drafted) played very well (again, besides his fumble), Javonte looks like the lead guy. Maybe a 60-40 split? 58-42 if we want to get cute? He needs only 15 touches a game to earn more than last year. He had 18 last night with a largely negative game script and was good for 12 targets, converting 11 of them. That's what we want out of a first-round draft pick.
For Seattle, I swung and missed on DeeJay Dallas, though in fairness, I believed the Seahawks would shift approaches in catch-up mode. Catch-up mode never happened, and Rashaad Penny remained front-and-center. That said, Penny remains the same TD-dependent guy he was this summer. I'm urging managers to sell high if you can. He'll have some nice 15+ point games when he scores. If he doesn't, expect less than nine points more often than not.
Meanwhile, D.K. Metcalf was my 75th-ranked player compared to an overall 47 ADP, while Lockett was a slight bargain at #85 (compared to a 96 ADP). Metcalf won this round, though barely. Assuming the Seahawks play from behind far more often than from ahead, we should see glimmers of fantasy relevance from both of them. But I'm not banking on either as weekly streamers. If they're facing a bad defense that can score buckets of points, then they're worth firing up. Besides that, we're hoping for a score to bail us out.
As for picking the closest score, only one of us predicted the Seahawks would win. Not only that, it was Chris Polen. Not only that, he guessed 20-17. That's dang close for being the only one to get the winner right. So a big congratulations to Chris for knowing what would happen. Those 30 (32?) years of fantasy football are really pay off for you. And because you've won, I've added you to the Winners Circle on the following spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13SZPKEL8x861lE5yy4_E8fPS5D9jVXmMf1d7BXi9Aws/edit#gid=1358794746
Late last night, I also updated the Fantasy Bingo contest with all of the Week 1 player points, including their multipliers. Tyler Nelson is in the lead with a diagonal that includes Lamar Jackson, Jonathan Taylor, Justin Jefferson, and Travis Kelce. We're coming for you, Tyler. (You too, Chris.)