Yesterday's thoughts on Derrick Henry made me think of other RBs who are struggling to start to the season. Which ones are strong bounce-back candidates, and which ones are sell-highs? Of course, as always, no one know what will happen. But . . . as always, I'm going to try to provide more than hunches and theories. Longtime readers know a lot of my predictions are based on historical data mixed with present-day context. So I'll be as transparent as possible on these three RBs.
First, Joe Mixon. Last summer he was one of my favorite RB bargains. This summer, he was one of my biggest RB busts. What changed? Last season he had over 400 touches -- the 93rd time that's happened in NFL history. Collectively, when other RBs have hit 400+ touches, their average fantasy-point regression the following season has been 26%.
The past two years, my research on high-usage TBs focused on the regular season, because that's all low-hanging fruit. Copy and paste data into Excel cells. Run the numbers. Yeah, it takes a lot of time. But it's doable. Then this summer I decided to expand this research to include all postseason volume. That got trickier. A lot more players to examine each year to see who cracked the 350+ touch threshold. But the results made the research worth it. They bolstered earlier findings and added some meat to my theories surrounding Mixon's 2022 outlook.
What's more, through two games, Mixon is on pace to have the second-most RB touches in a season in NFL history. Now that's kind of troubling, isn't it? He's already a major injury/regression risk based on historical outcomes. This is like Derrick Henry all over again: overworked in 2020, and then overworked even more in 2021 until he got hurt.
I know, some people believe injuries are largely flukes. They could happen to anyone at any time. But the fascinating thing about these numbers is how frequently they (and/or major regressions) happen to overworked RBs. What happened to Henry last season also happened to about 80% of RBs at his previous-year touch volume. Similarly, Mixon has to defy the odds this year to meet or exceed expectations. Averaging 3.0 yards per carry and less than 1.0 yards after contact on a near record-breaking pace . . . it's not looking promising. Trade for Samaje Perine as soon as you can.
Next up: Austin Ekeler. He's on pace for nearly 350 touches, which would be a career high. I'm anticipating a reduction in his carries-per-game, as Joshua Kelley and/or Sony Michel and/or Isaiah Spiller get more involved. But I wouldn't sell Ekeler yet. He's a good bet to crack 70 receptions and, even with a pullback in efficiency, he can still be a strong top-10 RB. If you can part ways for top-5 value, sure, makes sense to me.
But I think most trade partners will want to pay less. He had 20 TDs last year and zero through two games this year. 6-10 TDs seems realistic, and maybe more if they give him 250+ touches. In other words, I think he'll be fine -- just probably not "elite."
What do we do with Najee Harris? Good question. I have no idea. Your ideas are welcome as always. Harris's 2021 volume put him in a similar camp as Mixon, though Harris is a couple years younger (and my research shows younger RBs aren't quit as susceptible to steep regressions). Still, he's averaging only 2.9 YPC with seven receptions. I want to believe volume will carry him to top-14 production, and that his 3.5 receptions per game will tick upward.
But there are no guarantees for a team with a sub-par QB and (depending on who you ask) either a perfectly fine offensive line or one that's holding Harris back. Thursday's contest will tell us a lot, as the Browns have yielded the fourth-fewest rushing yards, but might be missing Myles Garrett. If Harris busts, it'll be hard to unload him for top-14 value. If he shines, great, he could return to the top-8 conversation. Then he'll face the Jets next week. Superb! Or at least "very good!"
However . . . here's who he'll face after that, in order: Bills, Bucs, Dolphins, Eagles, bye, Saints.
Do you want to deal with the headache of needing to start Harris because he's one of your two best RBs, while also knowing that some or even most of those opponents will be well-positioned to lock him down? This is why I'd wait until Thursday, hope for the best, and then sell high, promising great things to your opponent with the Jets on deck. And if he flops against Cleveland, hope he crushes the Jets, and then sell him for what you can.
So to recap, I'm doubling down on my preseason Mixon warnings, urging patience (and realism) with Ekeler, and suggesting a nuanced approach to Harris that (hopefully) capitalizes on good news--either this week or next.
First, Joe Mixon. Last summer he was one of my favorite RB bargains. This summer, he was one of my biggest RB busts. What changed? Last season he had over 400 touches -- the 93rd time that's happened in NFL history. Collectively, when other RBs have hit 400+ touches, their average fantasy-point regression the following season has been 26%.
The past two years, my research on high-usage TBs focused on the regular season, because that's all low-hanging fruit. Copy and paste data into Excel cells. Run the numbers. Yeah, it takes a lot of time. But it's doable. Then this summer I decided to expand this research to include all postseason volume. That got trickier. A lot more players to examine each year to see who cracked the 350+ touch threshold. But the results made the research worth it. They bolstered earlier findings and added some meat to my theories surrounding Mixon's 2022 outlook.
What's more, through two games, Mixon is on pace to have the second-most RB touches in a season in NFL history. Now that's kind of troubling, isn't it? He's already a major injury/regression risk based on historical outcomes. This is like Derrick Henry all over again: overworked in 2020, and then overworked even more in 2021 until he got hurt.
I know, some people believe injuries are largely flukes. They could happen to anyone at any time. But the fascinating thing about these numbers is how frequently they (and/or major regressions) happen to overworked RBs. What happened to Henry last season also happened to about 80% of RBs at his previous-year touch volume. Similarly, Mixon has to defy the odds this year to meet or exceed expectations. Averaging 3.0 yards per carry and less than 1.0 yards after contact on a near record-breaking pace . . . it's not looking promising. Trade for Samaje Perine as soon as you can.
Next up: Austin Ekeler. He's on pace for nearly 350 touches, which would be a career high. I'm anticipating a reduction in his carries-per-game, as Joshua Kelley and/or Sony Michel and/or Isaiah Spiller get more involved. But I wouldn't sell Ekeler yet. He's a good bet to crack 70 receptions and, even with a pullback in efficiency, he can still be a strong top-10 RB. If you can part ways for top-5 value, sure, makes sense to me.
But I think most trade partners will want to pay less. He had 20 TDs last year and zero through two games this year. 6-10 TDs seems realistic, and maybe more if they give him 250+ touches. In other words, I think he'll be fine -- just probably not "elite."
What do we do with Najee Harris? Good question. I have no idea. Your ideas are welcome as always. Harris's 2021 volume put him in a similar camp as Mixon, though Harris is a couple years younger (and my research shows younger RBs aren't quit as susceptible to steep regressions). Still, he's averaging only 2.9 YPC with seven receptions. I want to believe volume will carry him to top-14 production, and that his 3.5 receptions per game will tick upward.
But there are no guarantees for a team with a sub-par QB and (depending on who you ask) either a perfectly fine offensive line or one that's holding Harris back. Thursday's contest will tell us a lot, as the Browns have yielded the fourth-fewest rushing yards, but might be missing Myles Garrett. If Harris busts, it'll be hard to unload him for top-14 value. If he shines, great, he could return to the top-8 conversation. Then he'll face the Jets next week. Superb! Or at least "very good!"
However . . . here's who he'll face after that, in order: Bills, Bucs, Dolphins, Eagles, bye, Saints.
Do you want to deal with the headache of needing to start Harris because he's one of your two best RBs, while also knowing that some or even most of those opponents will be well-positioned to lock him down? This is why I'd wait until Thursday, hope for the best, and then sell high, promising great things to your opponent with the Jets on deck. And if he flops against Cleveland, hope he crushes the Jets, and then sell him for what you can.
So to recap, I'm doubling down on my preseason Mixon warnings, urging patience (and realism) with Ekeler, and suggesting a nuanced approach to Harris that (hopefully) capitalizes on good news--either this week or next.