Among all RBs last year with 100+ carries -- 50 in all -- none averaged less than 3.4 yards per carry. 36 of them (72%) averaged at least 4.0 YPC. The year before, only three of the 47 100+ carry RBs (6%) averaged below 3.4 YPC: Benny Snell, Joshua Kelley, and Gio Bernard. All three were backups, and none of the three have done much since. 38 of the 47 100+ carry RBs (81%) averaged at least 4.0 YPC.
This is the natural order of things. 4.0 YPC is widely regarded as "solid" for RBs. It's highly unusual for a starting RB to keep his job if he's consistently falling under 3.5. Titans legend Eddie George comes to mind as an exception to the rule. He dominated largely due to volume (and a strong role in the passing game), exceeding 300 rushing attempts in each of his eight full NFL seasons. He averaged below 3.4 YPC in each of those final three. Yet Tennessee kept running him until they found his replacement, Chris Brown.
The league doesn't churn out Eddie George's anymore. Instead, it churns through them, and then moves on. A 22-year-old Todd Gurley got away with averaging 3.2 YPC because his offensive line was atrocious. Four years later, after averaging 3.5 YPC with the RB-needy (and offensive-line deficient) Falcons, his career was over at only 26 years old. DeMarco Murray dominated for most of his first four seasons, then averaged only 3.6 YPC in 2015 and 2017. Derrick Henry took over that backfield in 2018, and Murray was finished with football.
An interesting thing is happening this season, with a bunch of veteran RBs underperforming--some for seemingly sensible reasons, and others more inexplicably. Seven of the 43 RBs on pace for 100+ carries (a whopping 16%) are currently under 3.4 YPC. 14 of them (an incredible 33%) are under 4.0 YPC.
On the one hand, it's a young season. A lot could change. I'd happily buy low on Austin Ekeler, and I'd consider buying low on AJ Dillon and Cam Akers. But some of these guys are overworked veterans, or are coming off monster-usage seasons. Derrick Henry is a full yard below his career 4.6 YPC. Joe Mixon is sitting at 2.8. Antonio Gibson--who never profiled as a bellcow in college--has plummeted to 3.1. James Conner's calling card--a near-elite broken-tackle rate that compensates for his lack of swiftness--has been nearly non-existant while averaging only 3.0 YPC.
RBs are always more boom-bust than other positions, because they're more susceptible to injuries and are more impacted by over-usage. Their careers tend to be shorter, so they often peak earlier. But we reach for them in drafts knowing that if we strike gold, we'll be at a competitive advantage over most of our opponents.
Still, this season has been different. A lot more elite and near-elite RBs are struggling. We shouldn't be surprised if many/most snap back, and we also shouldn't be surprised if many/most begin losing touches to backups. If Mixon's still under 3.0 by Week 6, I can't see a scenario where he remains the bellcow. If Henry continues to hover around 3.5, and assuming Tennessee won't come close to the playoffs, we'll probably see a lot more Dontrell Hilliard, and even some Hassan Haskins, by Thanksgiving.
We should still be bullish about our RB investments. This isn't a time to shrink from savvy risk taking. And . . . we need to understand which RBs are high-probability rebounders, and which ones are post-prime regression candidates with little chance of returning to greatness.
This is the natural order of things. 4.0 YPC is widely regarded as "solid" for RBs. It's highly unusual for a starting RB to keep his job if he's consistently falling under 3.5. Titans legend Eddie George comes to mind as an exception to the rule. He dominated largely due to volume (and a strong role in the passing game), exceeding 300 rushing attempts in each of his eight full NFL seasons. He averaged below 3.4 YPC in each of those final three. Yet Tennessee kept running him until they found his replacement, Chris Brown.
The league doesn't churn out Eddie George's anymore. Instead, it churns through them, and then moves on. A 22-year-old Todd Gurley got away with averaging 3.2 YPC because his offensive line was atrocious. Four years later, after averaging 3.5 YPC with the RB-needy (and offensive-line deficient) Falcons, his career was over at only 26 years old. DeMarco Murray dominated for most of his first four seasons, then averaged only 3.6 YPC in 2015 and 2017. Derrick Henry took over that backfield in 2018, and Murray was finished with football.
An interesting thing is happening this season, with a bunch of veteran RBs underperforming--some for seemingly sensible reasons, and others more inexplicably. Seven of the 43 RBs on pace for 100+ carries (a whopping 16%) are currently under 3.4 YPC. 14 of them (an incredible 33%) are under 4.0 YPC.
On the one hand, it's a young season. A lot could change. I'd happily buy low on Austin Ekeler, and I'd consider buying low on AJ Dillon and Cam Akers. But some of these guys are overworked veterans, or are coming off monster-usage seasons. Derrick Henry is a full yard below his career 4.6 YPC. Joe Mixon is sitting at 2.8. Antonio Gibson--who never profiled as a bellcow in college--has plummeted to 3.1. James Conner's calling card--a near-elite broken-tackle rate that compensates for his lack of swiftness--has been nearly non-existant while averaging only 3.0 YPC.
RBs are always more boom-bust than other positions, because they're more susceptible to injuries and are more impacted by over-usage. Their careers tend to be shorter, so they often peak earlier. But we reach for them in drafts knowing that if we strike gold, we'll be at a competitive advantage over most of our opponents.
Still, this season has been different. A lot more elite and near-elite RBs are struggling. We shouldn't be surprised if many/most snap back, and we also shouldn't be surprised if many/most begin losing touches to backups. If Mixon's still under 3.0 by Week 6, I can't see a scenario where he remains the bellcow. If Henry continues to hover around 3.5, and assuming Tennessee won't come close to the playoffs, we'll probably see a lot more Dontrell Hilliard, and even some Hassan Haskins, by Thanksgiving.
We should still be bullish about our RB investments. This isn't a time to shrink from savvy risk taking. And . . . we need to understand which RBs are high-probability rebounders, and which ones are post-prime regression candidates with little chance of returning to greatness.