The toughest outcomes for me to predict are in Week 18. The second toughest are in Week 1. The former is often a break from the norm (except when both teams have something to play for), while the latter establishes the norm--or at least, the season's first set of norms.
Is Trevor Lawrence poised to make a Year 2 leap? Can Amon-Ra St. Brown pick up where he left off last season? Will Clyde Edwards-Helaire be "the guy" in the Chiefs' backfield, or just part of an RBBC? There are 50 fantasy-relevant players or more whose realistic projections are all over the place. Even a veteran like Matt Ryan brings uncertainty, where a return to greatness seems just as realistic as 188 yards and a touchdown on 24 pass attempts in an easy, run- and defense-centric victory.
Last year in Week 1, Jameis Winston and Jared Goff dominated, while Ryan and Aaron Rodgers tanked. The year before in Week 1, the top 5 fantasy RBs included Nyheim Hines and Malcolm Brown, while Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb flopped. The year before that in Week 1, Sammy Watkins and DeSean Jackson somehow led all WRs, combining for 82.2 fantasy points, while Davante Adams and Mike Evans were inexplicably pedestrian.
Sometimes logic doesn't work. Sometimes the mysteries on the field remain mysteries until a week or two or three later.
So don't kick yourself over a sit/start decision that doesn't pan out. If you're choosing between CEH and Rashaad Penny, there are good reasons to start or bench either. If you're deciding between D.J. Chark or DeVonta Smith, there's enough uncertainty to keep us clicking and unclicking for an hour.
Take comfort that we have no idea how most of these guys will perform. If we did, then someone in this community would have predicted a Bills blowout on Thursday. "Not knowing" isn't a good excuse in Week 8. But it's okay to stumble into Week 1 with a lineup that makes sense, then take a step back tonight, figure out what we've learned, and come into Week 2 a little bit smarter.
Good luck today, and as always, toss in your start/sit questions below. I'll do my best to give my two cents--and my confidence level--for each. And of course, if any of you have strong opinions, please share what you think.
Is Trevor Lawrence poised to make a Year 2 leap? Can Amon-Ra St. Brown pick up where he left off last season? Will Clyde Edwards-Helaire be "the guy" in the Chiefs' backfield, or just part of an RBBC? There are 50 fantasy-relevant players or more whose realistic projections are all over the place. Even a veteran like Matt Ryan brings uncertainty, where a return to greatness seems just as realistic as 188 yards and a touchdown on 24 pass attempts in an easy, run- and defense-centric victory.
Last year in Week 1, Jameis Winston and Jared Goff dominated, while Ryan and Aaron Rodgers tanked. The year before in Week 1, the top 5 fantasy RBs included Nyheim Hines and Malcolm Brown, while Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb flopped. The year before that in Week 1, Sammy Watkins and DeSean Jackson somehow led all WRs, combining for 82.2 fantasy points, while Davante Adams and Mike Evans were inexplicably pedestrian.
Sometimes logic doesn't work. Sometimes the mysteries on the field remain mysteries until a week or two or three later.
So don't kick yourself over a sit/start decision that doesn't pan out. If you're choosing between CEH and Rashaad Penny, there are good reasons to start or bench either. If you're deciding between D.J. Chark or DeVonta Smith, there's enough uncertainty to keep us clicking and unclicking for an hour.
Take comfort that we have no idea how most of these guys will perform. If we did, then someone in this community would have predicted a Bills blowout on Thursday. "Not knowing" isn't a good excuse in Week 8. But it's okay to stumble into Week 1 with a lineup that makes sense, then take a step back tonight, figure out what we've learned, and come into Week 2 a little bit smarter.
Good luck today, and as always, toss in your start/sit questions below. I'll do my best to give my two cents--and my confidence level--for each. And of course, if any of you have strong opinions, please share what you think.