The four highest-scoring Week 1 WRs were also the top 4 preseason WRs based on ADP. The next three highest-scoring WRs had WR7, WR11, and WR13 ADPs.
Week 1 elite QBs were almost as dependable. The preseason top 3 all finished in the top 5, and the preseason top 6 all finished in the top 8. If you started WR-QB in a 14-team league, that's about 55-70 points combined points. No one would complain about that.
Yet once again, RBs are the mystery box of fantasy. Sometimes we strike gold (as planned), and sometimes we bust. And of course, sometimes our first-round pick finishes in the top 15-20, and we're left in some kind of emotional purgatory, happy to get decency, but not happy about spending so much to get it.
Of the top 14 preseason ADP RBs, only six finished in the top 14 in Week 1. Of the top 24 preseason ADPs, 13 didn't finish in the top 24. That roughly 50% miss rate is comparable to everything I've seen the past decade. For example, since 2012, only 46% of preseason top-10 RBs have finished the season in the top 10, and merely 30% of preseason top-5 RBs have finished in the top 5.
That's not to say QBs and WRs have been more reliable. Only 46% of top-5 preseason QBs have finished in the top five. Since most/all of those QBs are getting drafted after the top 10 RBs, it's easy to see how investing early in an RB still makes sense. Similarly, 46% of top-5 WRs have finished in the top 5, and only 43% of top-10 WRs have finished in the top 10. So we can see real value in reaching for an elite WR in the first round, as they've been significantly more likely to meet expectations than their elite RB counterparts.
This discrepancy is a big reason why I've only rarely reached for an elite QB. This year was an exception, because Justin Herbert "fell" to me at pick #42. The top 20 RBs were off the board, meaning the chance of landing a must-start top-10 RB was relatively slim. The top 17 WRs were taken, leaving 20 or more semi-dominant receivers who could crack the top 12 if things broke perfectly, or who could finish outside the top 24. Therefore, drafting a QB with a 46% chance (historically) of finishing around his draft value (or perhaps even better) made sense. It was the highest-upside bet I could make.
As the weeks go on, the top preseason RBs won't all magically coalesce near the top. It never works that way. While Week 1 often has little bearing on rest-of-season production (I've got a huge spreadsheet going back to 2015 that shows this), it highlights the unpredictability of the most popular position in the first rounds of fantasy drafts. And it's why for years I've shared the importance of filling most of our bench slots with RB handcuffs.
The basis for this strategy is in the historical numbers--the reality that RBs get hurt more often and are demoted more often than their counterparts at other positions. For example, this summer, it was easier to envision David Montgomery falling into a timeshare with Khalil Herbert than for Jerry Jeudy (who was frequently drafted after Montgomery) to fall into a timeshare with KJ Hamler.
We're all well past the draft stage of the season. But Week 1 reinforces why drafting is a skill. Yes, there's plenty of luck. I picked CeeDee Lamb and Marquise Brown fairly early. So far, I'm not pleased. Things happen. I accept that. And my team would be worse if I ignored historical trends and reached for the next best RB simply to fill a roster hole, rather than taking the highest-probability elite-upside player, or the highest-probability of anything.
Because if we know the top WRs are generally safer than the top RBs, and if we know preseason RB4s on average perform just as well as preseason RB3s, and if we know an elite-caliber QB is a safer bet than a top 20-24 RB, then we need some pretty good reasons not to act on that intel.
Week 1 elite QBs were almost as dependable. The preseason top 3 all finished in the top 5, and the preseason top 6 all finished in the top 8. If you started WR-QB in a 14-team league, that's about 55-70 points combined points. No one would complain about that.
Yet once again, RBs are the mystery box of fantasy. Sometimes we strike gold (as planned), and sometimes we bust. And of course, sometimes our first-round pick finishes in the top 15-20, and we're left in some kind of emotional purgatory, happy to get decency, but not happy about spending so much to get it.
Of the top 14 preseason ADP RBs, only six finished in the top 14 in Week 1. Of the top 24 preseason ADPs, 13 didn't finish in the top 24. That roughly 50% miss rate is comparable to everything I've seen the past decade. For example, since 2012, only 46% of preseason top-10 RBs have finished the season in the top 10, and merely 30% of preseason top-5 RBs have finished in the top 5.
That's not to say QBs and WRs have been more reliable. Only 46% of top-5 preseason QBs have finished in the top five. Since most/all of those QBs are getting drafted after the top 10 RBs, it's easy to see how investing early in an RB still makes sense. Similarly, 46% of top-5 WRs have finished in the top 5, and only 43% of top-10 WRs have finished in the top 10. So we can see real value in reaching for an elite WR in the first round, as they've been significantly more likely to meet expectations than their elite RB counterparts.
This discrepancy is a big reason why I've only rarely reached for an elite QB. This year was an exception, because Justin Herbert "fell" to me at pick #42. The top 20 RBs were off the board, meaning the chance of landing a must-start top-10 RB was relatively slim. The top 17 WRs were taken, leaving 20 or more semi-dominant receivers who could crack the top 12 if things broke perfectly, or who could finish outside the top 24. Therefore, drafting a QB with a 46% chance (historically) of finishing around his draft value (or perhaps even better) made sense. It was the highest-upside bet I could make.
As the weeks go on, the top preseason RBs won't all magically coalesce near the top. It never works that way. While Week 1 often has little bearing on rest-of-season production (I've got a huge spreadsheet going back to 2015 that shows this), it highlights the unpredictability of the most popular position in the first rounds of fantasy drafts. And it's why for years I've shared the importance of filling most of our bench slots with RB handcuffs.
The basis for this strategy is in the historical numbers--the reality that RBs get hurt more often and are demoted more often than their counterparts at other positions. For example, this summer, it was easier to envision David Montgomery falling into a timeshare with Khalil Herbert than for Jerry Jeudy (who was frequently drafted after Montgomery) to fall into a timeshare with KJ Hamler.
We're all well past the draft stage of the season. But Week 1 reinforces why drafting is a skill. Yes, there's plenty of luck. I picked CeeDee Lamb and Marquise Brown fairly early. So far, I'm not pleased. Things happen. I accept that. And my team would be worse if I ignored historical trends and reached for the next best RB simply to fill a roster hole, rather than taking the highest-probability elite-upside player, or the highest-probability of anything.
Because if we know the top WRs are generally safer than the top RBs, and if we know preseason RB4s on average perform just as well as preseason RB3s, and if we know an elite-caliber QB is a safer bet than a top 20-24 RB, then we need some pretty good reasons not to act on that intel.