In mock drafts, I'm finding there are too many great WRs that I want, and so I keep drafting them, at the expense of other positions. That leaves me with 3-4 or more WRs on my bench. And what good is that?
Well, maybe some of you believe that *is* good. And I want to hear why. Tell me what you're getting with that deep WR group. Are you swapping them in and out of your starting lineup depending on the matchups? Are you packaging some in trades? Are you keeping them to offset the strain of bye weeks?
This leads into one of the biggest temptations I fight each summer--in my real draft--is to ease up on WRs. In 2020, I started with Michael Thomas (remember, that wasn't an odd pick back then) and Davante Adams, following by Keenan Allen in the fourth. Yeah, I made the playoffs despite Thomas's injuries, as well as the loss of Dak Prescott (who was on a record-setting pace when he went down in Week 5). Yet my team was too shallow in too many places. I barely withstood the losses of Thomas and Dak, because my RBs and TE were sub-par. Adams was far-and-away the #1 WR, and Keenan was #6 in points per game. They helped carry me. And if Thomas and Dak had stayed healthy, I might have had enough firepower to take the title.
But that's too many what-ifs. There were a lot of great WRs to snag later in the draft. But since I took three in the first four rounds, I was playing catch-up everywhere else, and couldn't capitalize on those undervalued receivers I'd been targeting. Guys like the woefully undervalued Justin Jefferson, who I'd publicly pushed as a screaming steal at his WR48 ADP.
I made a similar misjudgment last September, drafting three WRs in the first six rounds (Keenan, Allen Robinson, and Thomas). Only Keenan panned out. Granted, Robinson seemed pretty safe at the time. But I put myself in another deep hole investing significantly in WRs in the early rounds. One or two? Makes sense if the value's there. But three? It forced me to play catch-up again at other positions. I ended up winning the title in spite of it, largely because of drafting Mark Andrews in the fourth.
In a league where we start up to three WRs (including at flex) with seven bench spots, I'd rather not draft more than five WRs, or six at the most. But if you're like me, it's hard to justify taking a hit-or-miss starting RB over a "sure-fire" top-24 WR or top-5 TE.
For example, Clyde Edwards-Helaire's overall ADP is 62, sandwiched between Allen Robinson (61) and Jerry Jeudy (63). Who here is taking CEH over Robinson or Jeudy, unless it's the 5th/6th round and you don't yet have an RB? Barring something unforeseen, I'd bet Robinson and Jeudy will score more points per game, and they also (based on positional durability) have a higher probability of playing more games. They also have a higher probability of not getting demoted. Simply put, there are a lot more reasons to go Robinson or Jeudy than CEH.
Similarly, Damien Harris (78 ADP) and Devin Singletary (79) are ranked ahead of Hunter Renfrow (80). Miles Sanders (83) is ranked ahead of Rashod Bateman (90). I'd have a really tough time taking one of those RBs ahead of one of those WRs.
Which leads back to the central problem I face each summer: if I drafted based on perceived value, I'd end up with nine or 10 WRs. Because they also seem better/safer. It's like some kind of paradox / statistical phemonenon where what I *think* is best for my team might in fact be best. . . up to a point. And then each successive WR drafted ensures diminishing returns, at the expense of greater returns at other positions. Because taking Bateman means I lose out on a potentially near-elite handcuff like Alexander Mattison, or a potentially near-elite RBBC who could break through by midseason. And if Bateman's on my bench most weeks, then what was the point, besides using him as an insurance policy if a better WR got hurt?
For me, drafting is as much about seizing opportunities as it is about fighting the urge to secure value at the expense of strategy. I want a great QB, two great RBs, two great WRs, and a good/great TE (as I imagine most of us do). That's entirely doable if we stay focused and keep tabs on the undervalued guys we're targeting a round or two before their ADP. And yet, that's easier said than done, especially when multiple potential weekly-startable WRs fall in our lap in the middle rounds, long after we've locked up two great WRs in earlier rounds.
What's your strategy with WRs? Do you have the ability to wait patiently until round 5 or 6 and then clean up? Do you draft too many? Or is "too many" not a problem if you're finding success keeping depth on your bench?
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Well, maybe some of you believe that *is* good. And I want to hear why. Tell me what you're getting with that deep WR group. Are you swapping them in and out of your starting lineup depending on the matchups? Are you packaging some in trades? Are you keeping them to offset the strain of bye weeks?
This leads into one of the biggest temptations I fight each summer--in my real draft--is to ease up on WRs. In 2020, I started with Michael Thomas (remember, that wasn't an odd pick back then) and Davante Adams, following by Keenan Allen in the fourth. Yeah, I made the playoffs despite Thomas's injuries, as well as the loss of Dak Prescott (who was on a record-setting pace when he went down in Week 5). Yet my team was too shallow in too many places. I barely withstood the losses of Thomas and Dak, because my RBs and TE were sub-par. Adams was far-and-away the #1 WR, and Keenan was #6 in points per game. They helped carry me. And if Thomas and Dak had stayed healthy, I might have had enough firepower to take the title.
But that's too many what-ifs. There were a lot of great WRs to snag later in the draft. But since I took three in the first four rounds, I was playing catch-up everywhere else, and couldn't capitalize on those undervalued receivers I'd been targeting. Guys like the woefully undervalued Justin Jefferson, who I'd publicly pushed as a screaming steal at his WR48 ADP.
I made a similar misjudgment last September, drafting three WRs in the first six rounds (Keenan, Allen Robinson, and Thomas). Only Keenan panned out. Granted, Robinson seemed pretty safe at the time. But I put myself in another deep hole investing significantly in WRs in the early rounds. One or two? Makes sense if the value's there. But three? It forced me to play catch-up again at other positions. I ended up winning the title in spite of it, largely because of drafting Mark Andrews in the fourth.
In a league where we start up to three WRs (including at flex) with seven bench spots, I'd rather not draft more than five WRs, or six at the most. But if you're like me, it's hard to justify taking a hit-or-miss starting RB over a "sure-fire" top-24 WR or top-5 TE.
For example, Clyde Edwards-Helaire's overall ADP is 62, sandwiched between Allen Robinson (61) and Jerry Jeudy (63). Who here is taking CEH over Robinson or Jeudy, unless it's the 5th/6th round and you don't yet have an RB? Barring something unforeseen, I'd bet Robinson and Jeudy will score more points per game, and they also (based on positional durability) have a higher probability of playing more games. They also have a higher probability of not getting demoted. Simply put, there are a lot more reasons to go Robinson or Jeudy than CEH.
Similarly, Damien Harris (78 ADP) and Devin Singletary (79) are ranked ahead of Hunter Renfrow (80). Miles Sanders (83) is ranked ahead of Rashod Bateman (90). I'd have a really tough time taking one of those RBs ahead of one of those WRs.
Which leads back to the central problem I face each summer: if I drafted based on perceived value, I'd end up with nine or 10 WRs. Because they also seem better/safer. It's like some kind of paradox / statistical phemonenon where what I *think* is best for my team might in fact be best. . . up to a point. And then each successive WR drafted ensures diminishing returns, at the expense of greater returns at other positions. Because taking Bateman means I lose out on a potentially near-elite handcuff like Alexander Mattison, or a potentially near-elite RBBC who could break through by midseason. And if Bateman's on my bench most weeks, then what was the point, besides using him as an insurance policy if a better WR got hurt?
For me, drafting is as much about seizing opportunities as it is about fighting the urge to secure value at the expense of strategy. I want a great QB, two great RBs, two great WRs, and a good/great TE (as I imagine most of us do). That's entirely doable if we stay focused and keep tabs on the undervalued guys we're targeting a round or two before their ADP. And yet, that's easier said than done, especially when multiple potential weekly-startable WRs fall in our lap in the middle rounds, long after we've locked up two great WRs in earlier rounds.
What's your strategy with WRs? Do you have the ability to wait patiently until round 5 or 6 and then clean up? Do you draft too many? Or is "too many" not a problem if you're finding success keeping depth on your bench?
---
Sign up for my 2022 Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or Rankings + 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"): https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/
Compete in the free, play-for-pride "PFN Bingo" fantasy competition: https://bit.ly/3Q9hMxL