One of the most popular preseason questions in this community concerns which players to target, depending on draft order. If we pick first, most of us are going Jonathan Taylor (and some of you apparently plan to go CMC). In some Superflex leagues, maybe Josh Allen gets the 1.1. nod. But in general, there isn't much differentiation. And let's focus on one-QB leagues for now.
The 1.2 spot seems easy for those who believe Taylor and CMC are the obvious top-two options. But if you're like me and are not sold on CMC, 1.2 seems tough. Last year I picked at 1.2 and "settled" for Alvin Kamara. Wasn't happy about it. In hindsight, it went far better than picking consensus #1 CMC in the 1.1 spot. But most years, 1.2 seems tough. There's not always a clear advantage between 1.2 and 1.4, and then we're getting a worse second-round pick.
1.3 and 1.4 seem a little easier to me, and maybe to some of you, but clearly not necessarily "better." The pressure is off if Taylor and CMC go 1-2. Whether you go elite WR or stick with RBs, there are strong options. But if we go WR, they have to be elite to make it worth it. Would you rather have Cooper Kupp if he ends up as the WR8, or Austin Ekeler if he ends up as the RB8? Given how tough it is to land an elite or near-elite RB who stays healthy and productive all season, I'd lock in the RB8. So going WR, for me, means they need to hit as big as I hope they will.
At 1.5 and 1.6, if Justin Jefferson's still on the board, he might be appealing at 1.6, though again, he better be elite to justify the expense. But we should still be able to get a potentially elite RB here, including (maybe) Ekeler, as well as Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara (if he's not suspended), or Dalvin Cook. They key is that there are still plenty of monster-upside RBs remaining. Whether they produce, as always, is an entirely other question.
For 1.7 and 1.8, we're approaching "who's left?" territory. Henry, Cook, D'Andre Swift, etc. Or Najee Harris or any other bellcow you believe in. I don't see any disadvantage to drafting here, unlike previous years, when there seemed to be a drop-off after 1.4 or 1.5. This year, there are enough injury question marks (CMC, Henry, Najee, etc.) to create more first-round confusion, which is helpful for late-round pickers.
And that gets us to 1.9 and 1.10, which again, seem far more interesting to me than in years past. Since I'm all in on Javonte Williams, and since he's generally coming off the board in the mid/late second round (and occasionally the early third?), my ideal draft spot is probably around 1.7 or later in a 12-team league, or 1.10 or later in a 14-team league. I want an elite-caliber player in the first (there should still be several remaining) and Javonte in the second. The point is, 1.9 and 1.10 can net us players who realistically could be just as good as the first eight guys taken.
For 1.11, more of the same. Maybe I'm painfully mistaken. But this is my view of the fantasy world, where a combined 12-16 RBs/WRs could push for top-3 positionally.
And in a 12-team league, I want to the 12 spot. Gimme Javonte and either Kamara, Swift, or Ja'Marr Chase. Coming back down in the third and fourth rounds, based on ADP, some very good players should be available, including Travis Etienne, Michael Pittman, and/or D.J. Moore. Tee Higgins could sneak through if there's a small run on QBs and TEs. I'm comfortable going into round 5 with three weekly-startable RBs and a near-elite WR, or two and two. If there's not a TE run, I could wind up with Kyle Pitts at the end of round 3.
This is a brief rundown of my thinking heading into my draft next Wednesday. If you're competing against me, now you know--although you probably knew a lot of this already.
And if any of you have a draft preference, I'd love to hear it. More importantly, where do you *not* want to pick, and why? Where's the pain point? And can we figure out how to push past it?
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The 1.2 spot seems easy for those who believe Taylor and CMC are the obvious top-two options. But if you're like me and are not sold on CMC, 1.2 seems tough. Last year I picked at 1.2 and "settled" for Alvin Kamara. Wasn't happy about it. In hindsight, it went far better than picking consensus #1 CMC in the 1.1 spot. But most years, 1.2 seems tough. There's not always a clear advantage between 1.2 and 1.4, and then we're getting a worse second-round pick.
1.3 and 1.4 seem a little easier to me, and maybe to some of you, but clearly not necessarily "better." The pressure is off if Taylor and CMC go 1-2. Whether you go elite WR or stick with RBs, there are strong options. But if we go WR, they have to be elite to make it worth it. Would you rather have Cooper Kupp if he ends up as the WR8, or Austin Ekeler if he ends up as the RB8? Given how tough it is to land an elite or near-elite RB who stays healthy and productive all season, I'd lock in the RB8. So going WR, for me, means they need to hit as big as I hope they will.
At 1.5 and 1.6, if Justin Jefferson's still on the board, he might be appealing at 1.6, though again, he better be elite to justify the expense. But we should still be able to get a potentially elite RB here, including (maybe) Ekeler, as well as Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara (if he's not suspended), or Dalvin Cook. They key is that there are still plenty of monster-upside RBs remaining. Whether they produce, as always, is an entirely other question.
For 1.7 and 1.8, we're approaching "who's left?" territory. Henry, Cook, D'Andre Swift, etc. Or Najee Harris or any other bellcow you believe in. I don't see any disadvantage to drafting here, unlike previous years, when there seemed to be a drop-off after 1.4 or 1.5. This year, there are enough injury question marks (CMC, Henry, Najee, etc.) to create more first-round confusion, which is helpful for late-round pickers.
And that gets us to 1.9 and 1.10, which again, seem far more interesting to me than in years past. Since I'm all in on Javonte Williams, and since he's generally coming off the board in the mid/late second round (and occasionally the early third?), my ideal draft spot is probably around 1.7 or later in a 12-team league, or 1.10 or later in a 14-team league. I want an elite-caliber player in the first (there should still be several remaining) and Javonte in the second. The point is, 1.9 and 1.10 can net us players who realistically could be just as good as the first eight guys taken.
For 1.11, more of the same. Maybe I'm painfully mistaken. But this is my view of the fantasy world, where a combined 12-16 RBs/WRs could push for top-3 positionally.
And in a 12-team league, I want to the 12 spot. Gimme Javonte and either Kamara, Swift, or Ja'Marr Chase. Coming back down in the third and fourth rounds, based on ADP, some very good players should be available, including Travis Etienne, Michael Pittman, and/or D.J. Moore. Tee Higgins could sneak through if there's a small run on QBs and TEs. I'm comfortable going into round 5 with three weekly-startable RBs and a near-elite WR, or two and two. If there's not a TE run, I could wind up with Kyle Pitts at the end of round 3.
This is a brief rundown of my thinking heading into my draft next Wednesday. If you're competing against me, now you know--although you probably knew a lot of this already.
And if any of you have a draft preference, I'd love to hear it. More importantly, where do you *not* want to pick, and why? Where's the pain point? And can we figure out how to push past it?
---
Sign up for my 2022 Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or Rankings + 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"): https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/
Compete in the free, play-for-pride "PFN Bingo" fantasy competition: https://bit.ly/3Q9hMxL